The federal electorate of Farrer in southern New South Wales is preparing for a by-election following the resignation of Liberal MP Sussan Ley. The contest is expected to be a multi-party race, drawing candidates from the Liberal Party, National Party, One Nation, and several independents, amidst widespread voter dissatisfaction concerning issues such as water management and local services. The by-election will serve as an early test for Opposition Leader Angus Taylor and is anticipated to occur in April or May, potentially close to the federal budget.
Background: Ley's Resignation and Political Legacy
Sussan Ley announced her resignation as the Member for Farrer, a seat she had represented since 2001. Her decision followed her removal from the Liberal leadership earlier in the month. In her statement, Ley reflected on her 24-year political career and her position as the first woman to lead the federal Liberal Party or any federal opposition.
Her departure places immediate pressure on her successor, Angus Taylor, to retain the seat for the Liberal Party.
A Historically Safe Seat Faces New Challenges
Established in 1949, Farrer has been continuously held by the Coalition, with all four of its previous members holding ministerial positions. Notable past representatives include Tim Fischer (National, 1984-2001). Historically considered a safe Coalition seat, electoral boundaries have undergone significant changes over time, including in 1984, 2001, and 2016.
While Ley typically held the seat with double-digit margins, her margin against Independents reduced to 6.2% in the 2025 election. A historical precedent for a contested multi-party race in Farrer occurred in 2001.
In 2001, Sussan Ley won by a narrow margin of 0.1% over the Nationals candidate after the distribution of Labor preferences.
By-election Dynamics: A Multi-Million Dollar Contest
The upcoming by-election marks the fifth federal by-election in three years and is anticipated to be a challenging contest, potentially involving a multi-million-dollar campaign. Under existing Coalition agreements, the Nationals had not contested Farrer while Ley was the incumbent; with the seat vacant, the National Party is now expected to field a candidate against the Liberal candidate.
Labor's Absence and Coalition Tensions
The Labor Party is reportedly unlikely to contest the by-election, having not won Farrer since its creation in 1949 and its primary vote not exceeding 25% since 2007.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson commented that Labor's decision could be a move to avoid a potentially lower vote for the Prime Minister, leaving the contest open for conservative and independent candidates.
Election analysts have suggested that ongoing Coalition disputes and Liberal leadership discussions could influence the outcome.
The Contenders: A Multi-Cornered Race
The by-election is shaping into a multi-cornered contest with several prominent candidates:
Liberal Party
The party has not yet announced its candidate. Opposition Leader Angus Taylor acknowledged the by-election would be "very, very tough" for the Liberal Party. The absence of Ley's personal vote, accumulated over 25 years, may significantly impact the party's performance, alongside a national decline in Liberal Party support.
National Party: Brad Robertson
The Farrer branch of the National Party has selected former military commander Brad Robertson to contest the seat. Robertson, who served 29 years in the military, identified improved healthcare access and water management as key priorities, aligning with the party's focus on protecting food and fiber industries. Nationals leader David Littleproud stated the party would conduct a grassroots campaign, campaigning against the government's water buyback policies.
One Nation: David Farley
David Farley, a 69-year-old irrigation specialist and former chief executive, was selected as One Nation's candidate. Farley's campaign will center on water and power, proposing water be defined as a "sovereign asset." One Nation leader Pauline Hanson predicted significant implications if her party were to win. Barnaby Joyce, who defected to One Nation, advocated for policies such as the dissolution of the climate change department and the reintroduction of coal-fired power stations.
Farley is facing scrutiny over comments made in 2012, where he referred to then-Prime Minister Julia Gillard as a "non-productive old cow."
Farley later called the comments "tongue-in-cheek," while Hanson defended them as "mild," and a Liberal shadow minister called them "inappropriate."
One Nation's national support has reportedly risen in opinion polls, with some surveys showing it matching the Coalition.
Independent: Michelle Milthorpe
An Albury-based teacher, Michelle Milthorpe placed second to Ley in the last federal election, securing 20% of the primary vote and winning all Albury booths. She has confirmed her candidacy and requires a 6% swing to win. Milthorpe's platform focuses on local concerns such as the Albury hospital and a royal commission into water policy, advocating for genuine consultation and a fair transition to renewable energy. Her campaign receives funding from Climate 200.
Other Candidates
Helen Dalton, an independent state MP for the overlapping NSW seat of Murray, initially did not rule out contesting but later confirmed she would not run, stating she would endorse a candidate strongly focused on water issues. Rebecca Scriven has been named as a contender for Family First, and the Greens are anticipated to announce their candidate.
Key Issues and Voter Discontent
Voter sentiment in Farrer indicates widespread dissatisfaction, with many residents, including long-term Coalition voters, considering alternative candidates. Key issues driving this discontent include:
- Water Management: The Murray-Darling Basin Plan and associated water buybacks are highly contentious, with farmers demanding a royal commission into water policy due to perceived negative impacts on irrigation-dependent communities and agricultural production.
- Local Services: Concerns revolve around the provision of essential services, including severe shortages of childcare places in areas like Deniliquin, and bed and staff shortages at the Albury hospital, the region's main metropolitan hub.
- Economic Concerns: Grievances also include labor shortages, penalty rates, and unreliable energy.
Geographical Dynamics: Shifting Loyalties
The political landscape within Farrer varies geographically. Albury, the largest population center, has shown strong support for independents. Rural and farming areas, traditionally Nationals strongholds, are increasingly open to alternative representation. One Nation's hardline stance on immigration has been noted as a potential challenge in culturally diverse areas like Griffith, which relies on migrant labor for its agricultural economy.
The Farrer by-election is being closely watched as an indicator of public sentiment towards conservative and center-right politics in regional Australia and the increasing influence of independent and minor party candidates.