Farrer By-Election: A Defining Test for the Coalition and a Potential Breakthrough for One Nation

The federal electorate of Farrer in south-western New South Wales is set to hold a by-election on May 9th, triggered by the resignation of Liberal MP Sussan Ley. This contest has emerged as a significant test for the Coalition and the Liberal Party's new leader, Angus Taylor, as well as a potential breakthrough for Pauline Hanson's One Nation party.

Background and Trigger

Sussan Ley resigned as the Member for Farrer following her loss in the Liberal Party leadership contest to Angus Taylor in February. Ms. Ley had held the seat for 25 years, first winning it in 2001 by a margin of just 0.1% (206 votes) against a Nationals candidate. Her resignation officially took effect in early March, following a farewell tour of the electorate.

The Farrer electorate, established in 1949, has been continuously held by the Coalition (either the Liberal Party or the National Party) for over 76 years. All four previous members—David Fairbairn (Liberal), Wal Fife (Liberal), Tim Fischer (Nationals), and Sussan Ley (Liberal)—served as ministers.

The Candidates

The by-election has evolved into a multi-cornered contest featuring:

• David Farley (One Nation): A 69-year-old agribusiness consultant and former CEO of the Australian Agricultural Company. Mr. Farley was selected by One Nation members at the Albury Entertainment Centre on Saturday, March 29, defeating two other candidates. He has a background in the Nationals and has previously considered both the Labor Party and running as an independent.

• Brad Robertson (Nationals): A retired army colonel with 29 years of military service. Mr. Robertson was selected by the National Party’s Farrer branch at a meeting in Griffith. He has identified healthcare access and water management as key priorities.

• Michelle Milthorpe (Independent): A local teacher and former candidate who placed second to Sussan Ley in the 2025 federal election, reducing Ms. Ley’s margin to 6.2%. Ms. Milthorpe is backed by the Climate 200 fundraising group and has maintained a public presence in the electorate since the last election.

• Raissa Butkowski (Liberal): Selected to contest the seat for the Liberal Party. Ms. Butkowski has described herself as not being "Sussan" but hopes to succeed Ms. Ley.

• Richard Hendrie (Greens): The Greens’ candidate for the seat. The party is expected to announce its candidate formally.

The Labor Party has opted not to field a candidate.

Key Issues Driving the Campaign

Water Policy

Water management under the Murray-Darling Basin plan is the most prominent issue in the electorate. Government water buy-backs are a major point of contention among farmers and irrigation-dependent communities:

• David Farley advocates for ending water buy-backs and defining water as a “sovereign asset” for the nation. He has called for a royal commission into water management.
• Michelle Milthorpe supports a royal commission into water policy and advocates for integrated management using the lived experience of farmers.
• Raissa Butkowski opposes water buy-backs and has argued that a royal commission would be too slow and costly, preferring investment in water infrastructure.
• Brad Robertson has identified improved water management as a key priority.
• Richard Hendrie endorses water buy-backs as essential for the health of the Murray-Darling river system.

Local Services and Infrastructure

Deficiencies in essential services across the electorate have been widely reported:

• Healthcare: The underfunding and capacity issues of the Albury-Wodonga hospital redevelopment are a primary concern, particularly in Albury, the region’s main metropolitan hub.
• Childcare and Aged Care: A shortage of childcare places, particularly in towns like Deniliquin, has been highlighted. Aged care and education services are also cited as areas requiring attention.
• Energy: Reliable and affordable energy is a concern, with candidates offering different approaches, from opposition to renewable energy (Mr. Farley) to support for a fair transition (Ms. Milthorpe).

Economic Pressures and Immigration

• Cost of Living: Residents report increased costs for groceries, fuel, and other essentials.
• Immigration: Immigration levels have emerged as a topic. Mr. Farley has described immigration levels as “loose” and advocates for “assimilation” into Australian culture. Ms. Milthorpe supports “place-based” immigration to fill workforce shortages.
• Fuel: One Nation’s campaign includes a proposal to halve the fuel excise, which has become a concern in farming communities due to rising petrol prices.

Voter Sentiment and Electorate Dynamics

Voter discontent is a defining feature of this by-election. Long-term Coalition voters have expressed dissatisfaction with government policies, particularly on water, and feelings of neglect. Some residents have indicated they are shifting their allegiance to One Nation or independent candidates.

The political landscape within Farrer varies geographically:

• Albury: The largest population center has shown strong support for independent candidates. Ms. Milthorpe won all voting booths in Albury and its suburbs in the 2025 election.
• Western Areas (e.g., Deniliquin, Finley): Rural and farming areas, traditionally Nationals strongholds, are increasingly open to alternative representation.
• Griffith: A culturally diverse area reliant on migrant labor for its agricultural economy, where One Nation’s hardline stance on immigration is met with skepticism by some voters.

Preference Dynamics

The Liberal and National parties have directed their how-to-vote preferences to One Nation candidate David Farley ahead of independent Michelle Milthorpe. The preference order on the Liberal how-to-vote card places Nationals candidate Brad Robertson second, David Farley fourth, Ms. Milthorpe ninth, and Greens candidate Richard Hendrie last. The Nationals will direct preferences to the Liberal candidate first, then to Mr. Farley ahead of Ms. Milthorpe.

Nationals leader Matt Canavan stated the decision was made because Ms. Milthorpe is backed by supporters of net-zero targets and water buy-backs.

Ms. Milthorpe questioned the Liberal Party’s decision to preference a party she described as seeking to “take them out.”

One Nation’s Campaign and Candidate Scrutiny

David Farley has stated his campaign is receiving financial support from affluent areas of Sydney and Melbourne. One Nation leader Pauline Hanson and MP Barnaby Joyce have publicly supported his candidacy.

Mr. Farley has faced scrutiny over comments made at a 2012 business conference where he referred to then-Prime Minister Julia Gillard as a “non-productive old cow.” Mr. Farley stated the remarks were “tongue-in-cheek” and expressed regret, saying he wished he could retract the joke. Ms. Hanson defended the comments as “mild” compared to sentiment in the agriculture industry at the time. Liberal shadow minister for women, Melissa McIntosh, described the comments as “inappropriate.”

One Nation has also faced scrutiny for re-hiring convicted rapist Sean Black as a campaign manager. Ms. Hanson stated she dismissed Mr. Black following renewed scrutiny of the appointment.

Historical Context and Electoral Significance

This will be the fifth federal by-election in three years. The by-election is scheduled to occur close to the May federal budget.

The Farrer seat is considered a potential breakthrough for One Nation, which would secure its first House of Representatives seat if Mr. Farley is elected.

Polling data indicates a rise in One Nation’s national primary vote, with some surveys showing it matching the Coalition’s support.

The by-election is widely viewed as a significant test for Opposition Leader Angus Taylor, who has acknowledged the contest will be “very, very tough.” A loss for the Coalition in this historically safe seat would be comparable to the 2023 Aston by-election, where the Liberals lost a previously safe seat.

Analysts note that the 2001 election, following Tim Fischer’s retirement, featured a three-cornered contest between Liberal, Nationals, and Labor candidates, with Sussan Ley winning by 206 votes. The current by-election, with multiple candidates from Liberal, National, One Nation, and Independent parties, is expected to be highly contested, with preference flows playing a crucial role.