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One Nation Wins Farrer By-Election, Securing First Federal Lower House Seat

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Farrer By-Election: One Nation Secures Historic Victory

David Farley's win marks the first time a party other than the Coalition has held the seat of Farrer since its creation in 1949.

Election Result

David Farley secured nearly 40% of the primary vote, with projections indicating a margin of approximately 7-9% after preferences. Independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe received about 28% of the primary vote. The combined primary vote for the Liberal and National parties dropped to just over 20%.

Farley is the first member for Farrer not representing the Liberal or National parties. The seat was previously held by the Coalition for 76 years.

Candidates and Parties

Twelve candidates contested the by-election. The main contenders were:

  • David Farley (One Nation): A 69-year-old agribusiness consultant and former CEO of the Australian Agricultural Company.
  • Michelle Milthorpe (Independent): Backed by the Voices of Farrer group and the Climate 200 fundraising vehicle.
  • Raissa Butkowski (Liberal)
  • Brad Robertson (Nationals): A former military commander.
  • Richard Hendrie (Greens)

The Australian Labor Party did not field a candidate.

Preference Decisions and Coalition Dynamics

The Liberal and National parties directed preferences to One Nation candidate David Farley ahead of independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe. The Liberal Party's how-to-vote card listed One Nation fourth and Milthorpe ninth. The Nationals directed preferences to the Liberal candidate first, then to Farley ahead of Milthorpe.

This was the first by-election in Farrer in 25 years in which both the Liberal and National parties fielded candidates, following the vacancy created by Ley's resignation.

Key Campaign Issues

Water Management

Water policy, particularly the Murray-Darling Basin Plan and associated water buy-backs, was a central issue. Candidates expressed varying positions:

  • David Farley advocated for ending water buy-backs, defining water as a "sovereign asset," and called for a royal commission into the program.
  • Michelle Milthorpe supported a royal commission into water management.
  • Candidate Raissa Butkowski argued a royal commission would be too slow and costly, preferring investment in water infrastructure.
  • Greens candidate Richard Hendrie endorsed water buy-backs for environmental health.

Healthcare

The redevelopment of Albury's hospital was a major local issue. Candidates disagreed on whether to proceed with the current redevelopment plan or plan for a new hospital.

Immigration

Immigration levels were a significant topic. David Farley advocated for a migration program that fits Australia's needs, using terms like "assimilation" to Australian values. The Liberal party also proposed reducing immigration levels. Milthorpe supported place-based immigration to fill workforce shortages.

Controversies

Candidate Comment About Doctor

At a candidates' forum on May 8, David Farley made a comment to Dr. Lachlan McKeeman, a local GP and health campaigner, stating, "You can see why he lost his job, I think." Dr. McKeeman had stopped working at Albury Wodonga Health in late 2025 after receiving legal advice that his position was "untenable" due to his public criticism of the organization. The remark drew boos from the audience.

Nationals leader Matt Canavan called for Farley and One Nation leader Pauline Hanson to apologize. Michelle Milthorpe condemned the comment as "ignorant" and "insensitive." Farley did not directly address the call for an apology.

Resurfaced Comments

Comments made by Farley in 2012, in which he referred to then-Prime Minister Julia Gillard as a "non-productive old cow," resurfaced during the campaign. Farley stated the comments were "tongue-in-cheek" and taken out of context. Liberal shadow minister for women, Melissa McIntosh, described the comments as "inappropriate."

Unauthorized Signage

On polling day, the Federal Court ordered the removal of unauthorized signage that implied endorsement by the Australian Electoral Commission, which targeted independent candidate Milthorpe. The AEC stated it had not erected or authorized the signs.

Voter Sentiment

Voters expressed a range of views. Some cited frustration with major parties and a desire for change, particularly regarding water management and cost-of-living pressures. Others expressed concerns about One Nation's policies on immigration and social issues.

Reactions to the Result

  • David Farley: Stated he joined One Nation because it was "a political party of courage and tenacity."
  • Pauline Hanson (One Nation leader): Said the party was "coming after those other seats."
  • Angus Taylor (Liberal leader): Described the by-election as "always going to be a mountain to climb" and said the party needed to "take our medicine."
  • Michelle Milthorpe: In her concession speech, described the result as a test for One Nation, noting that reflecting voter anger is easier than delivering solutions.
  • Bridget McKenzie (Nationals deputy leader): Said she would be open to forming a minority government with One Nation.

Background on the Electorate

Farrer covers south-western New South Wales, including towns such as Albury, Deniliquin, and Griffith. It has been held continuously by the Coalition since 1949. Sussan Ley had represented the seat since 2001.

In the 2025 federal election, Ley's margin was reduced to 6.2% against independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe. The electorate contains 156 proposed, under construction, or commissioning renewable energy and storage projects, including the entire South-West Renewable Energy Zone (REZ).