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Texas Senate Race Heads to Runoff as Paxton Defeats Cornyn, Setting Up General Election Against Talarico

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The 2026 Texas U.S. Senate Race

The 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race is set for a general election after state Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff. Paxton will face Democratic nominee and state Representative James Talarico in the November general election. The race is considered competitive, with the Cook Political Report shifting its rating to "Lean Republican."

Republican Primary and Runoff

Primary Election

In the March 3 Republican primary, Senator John Cornyn received 42% of the vote, while Attorney General Ken Paxton received 41%. Congressman Wesley Hunt, a third candidate, received approximately 13% of the vote. As no candidate secured the majority required to win outright, the race advanced to a runoff election scheduled for May 26.

Campaign and Spending

The Republican primary became the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history, with over $100 million spent. Pro-Cornyn groups outraised and outspent pro-Paxton groups for much of the campaign. Total ad spending in the race exceeded $109 million, with Cornyn's side accounting for the majority.

Trump Endorsement

  • Initial Neutrality: Former President Donald Trump withheld an endorsement during the March primary, stating he considered all three candidates friends and supporters.
  • Runoff Endorsement: On May 19, Trump endorsed Ken Paxton, calling him a "true MAGA Warrior" and criticizing Cornyn for insufficient loyalty. Trump stated that Cornyn "was not supportive of me when times were tough."
  • Cornyn's Response: Cornyn stated that 99.3% of his votes aligned with Trump and that he wants Trump to be successful.

Controversies and Allegations

  • Paxton's Legal Issues: Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on charges including bribery, abuse of public trust, and obstruction of justice. He was acquitted by the Texas Senate. Paxton also faced a securities fraud indictment, which was dismissed in 2024 after a pre-trial diversion agreement. His wife, state Senator Angela Paxton, filed for divorce in 2024.
  • Cornyn's Record: Cornyn faced criticism from the MAGA wing for supporting a 2022 bipartisan gun safety bill and for initial reluctance to endorse Trump's 2024 campaign.

Paxton Victory

The Associated Press called the race for Paxton. In his concession speech, Cornyn stated:

"After a public service career lasting more than four decades and 18 consecutive campaign wins, tonight we've come up short in this primary runoff. I've always supported the GOP ticket. I intend to do so again this general election."

Political analyst Brandon Rottinghaus said the campaign created lasting division among Republicans.

Democratic Primary

Candidates and Outcome

The Democratic primary featured state Representative James Talarico and U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett. Talarico won the primary, defeating Crockett by approximately six percentage points. The Democratic primary set a record for primary turnout for a statewide office in Texas history, with over 2.3 million votes cast.

Campaign Strategies

  • Talarico: Emphasized economic populism, criticizing what he described as a "broken, corrupt political system." His campaign focused on appealing to a broad coalition including progressives, liberals, independent voters, and disaffected conservatives.
  • Crockett: Advocated for a "bold and unapologetic" approach aiming to mobilize disengaged Democratic voters, particularly Black and young voters. She criticized Talarico's electability claims as a "dog whistle."

Key Events

  • Colbert Interview Incident: Talk-show host Stephen Colbert stated CBS pulled his interview with Talarico due to legal concerns. The interview was later posted on YouTube, where it received nearly 8 million views. Talarico's campaign reported raising $2.5 million within 24 hours of the decision.
  • Primary Dynamics: Both candidates maintained national profiles through social media. Talarico integrated his Christian faith into his campaign messaging, while Crockett became known for her public exchanges with Republican lawmakers.

Voter Demographics

  • Talarico performed strongly in Austin and across parts of rural and small-town Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley.
  • Crockett garnered significant support in metropolitan Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth, particularly among Black voters.

Fundraising

Talarico's Fundraising

Talarico reported raising $27 million in the first quarter of 2026, which his campaign described as the largest first-quarter fundraising total for any Senate candidate in any state. His total fundraising since entering the race in September exceeded $40 million. The campaign reported donations from over 540,000 individual contributors across 246 of Texas' 254 counties.

Cornyn and Paxton Fundraising

  • Senator John Cornyn raised nearly $9 million in the first quarter of 2026, including $3.4 million after the March primary.
  • Attorney General Ken Paxton had not reported his first-quarter total at the time of reporting but trailed Cornyn in fundraising throughout the election cycle.

Other Senate Fundraising Reports

Several other U.S. Senate candidates announced first-quarter fundraising totals:

  • Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff (D): $14 million raised, over $31 million cash on hand.
  • Former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper (D): $13.8 million raised.
  • Former RNC Chair Michael Whatley (R): $5 million raised.
  • Former Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown (D): $12.5 million raised.

General Election Outlook

Race Dynamics

The general election will feature Paxton (R) and Talarico (D). The Cook Political Report shifted the race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" following Paxton's victory.

Recent Polling

  • A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll from mid-April showed Talarico leading both Paxton and Cornyn in hypothetical matchups, with nearly 20% of voters undecided.
  • A Texas Southern University poll found Cornyn leading Talarico 45% to 44%, and Paxton tied with Talarico at 45%.

Historical Context

  • No Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas since 1994.
  • In 2024, former President Trump won Texas by nearly 14 percentage points.
  • Democrat Beto O'Rourke lost the 2018 Senate race to Senator Ted Cruz by 2.6 percentage points.

Candidate Positions and Statements

Ken Paxton (R):

  • Aligns with the MAGA movement and emphasizes cultural issues including immigration and transgender rights.
  • Called Talarico "absolutely extreme" regarding Talarico's past statements on gender.
  • A lawyer who represented Paxton for nearly a decade, Dan Cogdell, endorsed Talarico, stating Paxton had lost sight of his core mission.

Senator Susan Collins (R-ME): "Paxton is an ethically challenged individual."

James Talarico (D):

  • Focuses on economic populism, including proposals to end tariffs, suspend federal gas and diesel taxes, and cap prescription drug prices.
  • Describes the political fight as "top versus bottom."
  • States he recognizes two sexes but believes people with chromosomal abnormalities "deserve to be treated with dignity and respect."
  • Denies being a vegan, noting he has eaten barbecue "since before Ken Paxton's first indictment."

Party Reactions

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R): "If you consider the polling in a general election scenario, it is within the realm of possibility that the seat could change party control, depending on the Democratic nominee."

Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC): "A Paxton nomination could make the race more expensive for Republicans."