Texas Primaries Set Stage for 2026 U.S. Senate Race

Early voting and the March 3 primary elections in Texas have set the stage for the 2026 U.S. Senate race. On the Democratic side, State Representative James Talarico secured the nomination. In the Republican primary, incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a runoff election scheduled for May 26, as neither candidate achieved over 50% of the vote. These primaries garnered significant attention and high voter turnout, with Democrats aiming to challenge Republican dominance in a state that has not elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 1988.

Democrats are aiming to challenge Republican dominance in a state that has not elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 1988.

Democratic U.S. Senate Primary

The Democratic primary featured State Representative James Talarico and U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett.

Outcome

James Talarico was projected as the winner of the Democratic primary, defeating Jasmine Crockett. Crockett conceded the race.

Candidates' Background and Approach

James Talarico: A 36-year-old state legislator, former teacher, and Presbyterian seminarian from Round Rock. He is known for integrating his Christian faith into his political positions and advocating a "politics of love." Talarico's campaign focused on appealing to a broad coalition, including progressives, liberals, independent voters, and disaffected conservatives, framing the political struggle as "top versus bottom" rather than "right versus left."

Jasmine Crockett: A 44-year-old U.S. Representative and civil rights attorney from Dallas. She is recognized for her assertive critiques of Republicans and emphasizes her federal-level experience. Crockett's strategy centered on mobilizing core Democratic base voters, particularly Black and young voters, and asserted a "bold and unapologetic" Democratic approach was necessary for victory.

Key Campaign Events

Talarico gained national attention after an interview with late-night host Stephen Colbert was pulled from broadcast by CBS, which cited legal concerns regarding equal time rules. The unaired interview was later posted online, accumulating nearly 8 million views. Following this incident, Talarico's campaign reported raising $2.5 million within 24 hours.

Both candidates developed national profiles through viral social media content. The primary was characterized by significant spending, with Talarico's campaign outspending Crockett's on advertising, including contributions from super PACs. Allegations and criticisms were exchanged, including a TikTok influencer's accusation against Talarico (which he denied) and scrutiny of Crockett's past comments and a campaign event incident.

Voter Demographics and Support

Talarico performed strongly in Austin and parts of rural and small-town Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley, and showed strength among self-described liberals and Latino voters. Crockett garnered significant support in metropolitan Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth, particularly among Black voters and moderates.

Turnout

Democratic primary early voting saw higher turnout (665,664 votes) than the Republican primary (593,692 votes) through the first seven days. The overall Democratic primary turnout surpassed Republican turnout by over 110,000 votes out of nearly 4.4 million ballots cast.

The overall Democratic primary turnout surpassed Republican turnout by over 110,000 votes.

Republican U.S. Senate Primary

The Republican primary featured four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt.

Outcome

Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a runoff election, scheduled for May 26, as no candidate secured over 50% of the vote. Congressman Wesley Hunt received approximately 13% of the vote.

Candidates' Background and Approach

John Cornyn: A 74-year-old incumbent seeking a fifth term. He positions himself as a proven conservative with experience, emphasizing his voting record in support of former President Donald Trump's agenda (claiming 99% alignment) and describing himself as a "workhorse." His campaign highlighted his historical performance as a strong statewide vote-getter and warned against Paxton's controversies.

Ken Paxton: A 63-year-old state Attorney General. He was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 on charges including bribery, abuse of public trust, and obstruction of justice, but was acquitted by the Texas Senate. Paxton has positioned himself against the "Washington status quo" and aligns with the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement, energizing the Republican base.

Wesley Hunt: A 44-year-old Houston-area representative. He positions himself as a "bridge" to the next generation of MAGA candidates, aligning with former President Trump and serving as an alternative for some voters. Hunt criticized Cornyn as a "Bush RINO" and Paxton as a "career politician."

Polling and Projections

Pre-primary polls indicated Paxton often leading, with a runoff considered likely. A University of Houston survey showed Paxton leading with 38% support among likely voters, followed by Cornyn at 31% and Hunt at 17%.

Donald Trump's Role

Former President Donald Trump maintained a neutral stance in the primary, stating he supported "all three" candidates and was unlikely to endorse in a potential runoff. All three candidates attended his event in Corpus Christi.

Republican Party Concerns

Some senior Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune, expressed concerns that a Paxton nomination could jeopardize the Texas Senate seat in the general election and require significant resources to defend. National Republican organizations spent tens of millions of dollars to support Cornyn.

Campaign Dynamics

The primary was described as an "ugly contest" with significant advertising expenditure from all campaigns and allied groups. Cornyn's campaign criticized Paxton's legal and personal controversies, while Paxton's campaign argued he was better positioned to mobilize the Republican base. Hunt faced attacks from both Cornyn and Paxton's camps.

Wider Electoral Context and Voter Engagement

The Texas primaries are seen as significant indicators for the direction of both parties ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Historical Context

Democrats have not secured a Senate victory in Texas since 1988. However, they perceive a potential opportunity in the upcoming elections to support their long-term objective of regaining a Senate majority, particularly if Republicans nominate Ken Paxton.

Voter Trends

Early voting turnout exceeded figures from recent midterm and presidential primary years. Democrats observed significant turnout increases in Harris County and Tarrant County, a competitive "purple" county where a Democrat recently won a special election runoff in a district that had favored Donald Trump in 2024.

General Election Outlook

The winner of the Democratic primary, James Talarico, will face the winner of the Republican runoff between Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Political observers have suggested that if Paxton becomes the Republican nominee, his ongoing legal and ethical issues could provide Democrats with an advantage in the general election, despite Trump winning Texas by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024.

If Ken Paxton becomes the Republican nominee, his ongoing legal and ethical issues could provide Democrats with an advantage in the general election.

Other Primary Results

Governor Greg Abbott and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick both secured victories in their respective Republican primary elections.