Zelensky Meets European Leaders in London Amid US-Backed Peace Talks
June 7, 2024
"Europe should be included in negotiations and be strong." — President Volodymyr Zelensky
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in London for discussions regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The meetings included both bilateral talks and E3-format discussions, following three days of negotiations in Florida between Ukraine's chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, and US officials including special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Joint Statement on Five Conditions
The leaders issued a joint statement outlining five conditions for a resolution to the war:
- An immediate and complete ceasefire from Russia.
- Negotiations to begin at the current line of contact.
- Robust and legally binding security guarantees for Ukraine once a ceasefire is in effect, including a multinational force.
- Compensation for damages caused by Russia, with Russian assets immobilized until restitution is provided.
- Safeguarding European security interests, with any EU or NATO-related elements requiring consent from respective member states or allies.
The statement aligns with an open letter sent by President Zelensky to Russian President Vladimir Putin days earlier, proposing direct bilateral peace talks. Putin rejected the open letter.
Key Statements from Leaders
- President Zelensky stated that Europe should be included in negotiations and be strong. He reiterated the call to freeze battlefield lines and move to diplomatic settings.
- President Macron said that Europeans, as major contributors to Ukraine's war effort, should be at the negotiating table.
- Prime Minister Starmer expressed commitment to working with international partners for a just and lasting peace.
Context of US-Backed Peace Plan
The London meetings followed discussions in Florida centered on a US-backed draft peace proposal. US President Donald Trump stated on Sunday that he was "disappointed that President Zelensky hasn't yet read the proposal," which had been revised in Miami.
"His people love it... [Russia] would rather have the whole country when you think of it, but Russia is, I believe, fine with it - but I'm not sure that Zelensky is fine with it." — President Donald Trump
President Zelensky indicated he would be briefed on the negotiations by Umerov upon his arrival in London or Brussels. He characterized earlier discussions with Witkoff and Kushner as "constructive, though not easy," adding that "some issues can only be discussed in person."
Witkoff also held five hours of in-person discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow the previous week.
European Defense Initiatives
The UK and France have been leading discussions to form a "coalition of the willing," also referred to as the Multinational Force Ukraine. Diplomatic sources have indicated such a force would offer defense assistance rather than policing a ceasefire line or acting as an impartial peacekeeping entity.
UK cabinet minister Pat McFadden stated the talks would ensure Ukraine's ability to determine its own future and emphasized the need for substantial security guarantees.
Germany, along with Italy and Poland, has pledged various forms of defense assistance to Ukraine but has expressed reservations about deploying troops on the ground within the country. The Kremlin has previously stated that such a deployment would be considered an escalation.
Key Negotiation Points
Territorial Disputes
The US-backed proposal reportedly includes provisions for Ukraine to withdraw forces from eastern regions that Russia has partially occupied, in exchange for Russian withdrawals elsewhere and a cessation of hostilities.
Russia's Position: President Putin maintains a demand for the entire Donbas industrial region. Russian forces currently occupy most of the Luhansk region and over 75% of Donetsk. Putin's objectives include the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Ukraine's Position: President Zelensky has stated that Ukrainian forces cannot withdraw from Donbas, citing legal obligations and the presence of approximately 300,000 residents in the area. Zelensky proposed creating a demilitarized or free economic zone in the area, policed by Ukraine, contingent on Russian forces withdrawing an equivalent distance, with international forces monitoring the line of contact.
Russian Response: Putin stated, "If the authorities in Kyiv don't want to settle this business peacefully, we'll resolve all the problems before us by military means." Kremlin envoy Yuri Ushakov has suggested the possibility of no troops (Russian or Ukrainian) in Donbas, but affirmed the territory would be part of the Russian Federation.
Military Assessments: Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War have estimated that, at current rates of advance, it could take Russian forces until August 2027 to fully conquer the rest of Donetsk.
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
Russia has occupied Europe's largest nuclear plant, located in Enerhodar, since March 2022. The plant's six reactors are in cold shutdown and are not producing electricity. External power, supplied by Ukraine, is required to prevent a meltdown.
- Ukrainian Proposal: Ukraine suggests the area surrounding the plant be demilitarized and designated a free economic zone.
- US Proposal: According to President Zelensky, the US proposed managing the plant as a joint enterprise with Russia and Ukraine. Kyiv considers this unrealistic and instead proposed joint US-Ukraine management (50-50), with the US determining the destination of half the generated power.
- Russian Stance: Alexei Likachev, head of Russia's Rosatom nuclear agency, has stated that only Russia can operate the plant and ensure its safety. He has indicated the possibility of Ukraine using electricity generated by the plant within an international cooperation framework.
Mutual Trust
Progress on significant sticking points is impacted by the limited mutual trust between the parties. When President Trump suggested that Putin "wants to see Ukraine succeed… including supplying energy… at very low prices," President Zelensky responded:
"I don't trust Russians and... I don't trust Putin, and he doesn't want success for Ukraine." — President Volodymyr Zelensky
Russia has accused Ukrainian forces of targeting a Putin residence with drones in the Novgorod region, an allegation for which no evidence was provided. Ukraine denies the incident, viewing it as a potential pretext for further Russian strikes on government buildings in Kyiv.
Additional Sticking Points
- Security Guarantees: Kyiv has requested NATO-style security guarantees to ensure a response in the event of a future Russian attack and seeks to maintain an 800,000-strong military. Russia opposes the presence of European troops in Ukraine.
- Financial Reparations: Ukraine's estimated financial losses are $800 billion (£600 billion) . The US proposes a joint investment fund with Europe. Russia has €210 billion (£183 billion) worth of assets in Europe, but Moscow has refused to allow their use for reparations.
- NATO Membership: Ukraine's constitution includes a bid for NATO membership, which Russia rejects. This remains a point of contention, though immediate membership is not anticipated.
- European Union Membership: Ukraine's aspiration for EU membership is another potential issue, both for Russia and for other countries awaiting EU accession. Its immediate realization is considered unlikely.
Diplomatic Context
The leaders of the "coalition of the willing," Macron and Starmer, have been largely sidelined from US-brokered peace talks. The Kremlin has signaled openness to European involvement but proposed Gerhard Schroder as a mediator, which Kyiv and European officials rejected.
Recent incidents, including unmanned drones disrupting civilian airports in Germany, Denmark, and Belgium, an act of railway sabotage in Poland, and significant cyber-attacks across the continent, have been attributed to Russia. These events have increased European awareness of the conflict.
The US National Security Strategy characterized European expectations regarding the war's resolution as "unrealistic."
European leaders were reportedly concerned that a rapid resolution, potentially favored by the US, might not lead to lasting peace but rather a temporary pause in Russian aggression.
According to Keith Kellogg, Trump's outgoing special envoy for Ukraine, a deal is nearing completion, but talks on specific elements are ongoing. The Kremlin has described negotiations as being "at a final stage."
The discussions also addressed coordinating further support for Ukraine ahead of upcoming international gatherings, including the G7 Leaders' Summit.