NBA Confronts Escalating Tanking Crisis: Reforms On The Horizon

The National Basketball Association (NBA) is actively addressing a significant increase in "tanking," a practice where teams are perceived to intentionally lose games to improve their draft lottery odds. Commissioner Adam Silver has expressed significant concern, stating the situation is worsening and reforms are planned. Recent incidents, including substantial fines issued to the Utah Jazz and Indiana Pacers for player resting violations, have intensified discussions around league integrity and potential systemic changes to the draft lottery system.

Defining Tanking: Incentives and Impact

Tanking refers to the practice of teams strategically losing games to secure a higher draft pick, thereby gaining better access to top amateur talent. The NBA's draft system allocates higher chances for top selections to teams with poorer records, intended to help improve their rosters. This incentive is particularly prominent for the upcoming 2026 draft class, which is anticipated to feature three highly-rated prospects: BYU wing AJ Dybantsa, Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, and Duke forward Cameron Boozer, identified as Tier One prospects with significant All-NBA potential.

Commissioner Adam Silver noted that modern analytics have highlighted misaligned incentives within the league's current system, contributing to the increasing prevalence of tanking.

He stated that recent team behavior indicates the issue is "not working" and is "worse than we've seen in recent memory."

League Responds: Fines and Warnings Issued

The NBA has taken disciplinary action against teams found to be in violation of its player participation policies.

• Utah Jazz: The Jazz received a $500,000 fine for "conduct detrimental to the league" after sitting star players Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. during the fourth quarters of consecutive games against the Orlando Magic on February 7 and the Miami Heat on February 9. Jazz owner Ryan Smith publicly disagreed with the fine, noting that the team won one of the games in question. Coach Will Hardy cited Markkanen's minutes restriction for health reasons.
• Indiana Pacers: The Pacers were fined $100,000 for resting Pascal Siakam and two other starters in a game against the Jazz on February 3, with the league's investigation concluding these players were medically cleared to play.
• Previous Fines: Last year, the Jazz were fined $100,000 for a similar policy violation. Two years prior, the Dallas Mavericks received a $750,000 fine for resting key players to protect a draft pick.
• Commissioner's Warnings: Adam Silver had previously issued warnings about tanking, particularly leading up to the 2023 draft, which featured highly anticipated prospect Victor Wembanyama.

High-Profile Incidents Fuel Criticism

One widely discussed incident involved the Utah Jazz's loss to the Orlando Magic. The Jazz, holding a 17-point lead with 90 seconds left in the third quarter, saw the Magic rally to win by three points. Key players Jaren Jackson Jr., Lauri Markkanen, and Jusuf Nurkic were benched for the entire fourth quarter. Jackson, who had been acquired from the Memphis Grizzlies, was later ruled out for the season after a growth in his left knee was discovered during a physical. Sources indicated the Jazz were aware of his condition and planned to shut him down, but he wished to play one home game under a 25-minute restriction.

Following the game, some national commentators criticized the perceived intent to lose, suggesting it undermined the league's integrity. The Jazz's strategy aligns with their goal to retain a first-round draft pick, which they will keep if it falls into the top eight, stemming from a previous trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Broader Scope: Integrity and Gambling Concerns

NBA insider Zach Lowe stated that the tanking "crisis is here like it's never been before," estimating that approximately one-third of the league is believed to be engaging in this practice. Teams reportedly engaging in strategies perceived as tanking include the Washington Wizards, Sacramento Kings, Brooklyn Nets, Dallas Mavericks, Milwaukee Bucks, Memphis Grizzlies, and Chicago Bulls.

Beyond competitive balance, NBA insider Marc Stein highlighted concerns regarding the connection between tanking, undisclosed player absences, and gambling. Allegations from a recent FBI gambling scandal involved inside information about players being held out of games before the public was aware, raising integrity issues for the league.

Exploring Solutions: A System Under Scrutiny

The NBA's Competition Committee is re-examining the draft lottery system, and Commissioner Silver has indicated that reforms are planned for next season, putting all 30 general managers on notice and considering options such as taking away draft picks from teams. Various solutions have been proposed and debated:

• Abolish the Draft: This radical proposal suggests allowing players to sign with any team, arguing it would force organizations to be desirable destinations and eliminate tanking incentives. Concerns exist about top prospects concentrating in specific markets.
• Limit Pick Protections: A short-term solution involves restricting the types of protections teams can place on traded draft picks (e.g., limiting them to top-four or 14 and higher). This aims to reduce the incentive to strategically lose for pick protection.
• Cut-off Date for Lottery Positions: This idea proposes locking lottery positions after a specific date, such as March 1, potentially with incentives for winning games afterward. Critics suggest this might merely shift tanking to an earlier point in the season.
• The "Wheel" System: Proposed by Celtics general manager Mike Zarren, this system would have teams rotate through all 30 draft slots over a 30-year period, severing the link between standings and draft position.
• Three-Year Records for Lottery Odds: Chicago Bulls beat writer Will Gottlieb suggested using three-year records instead of a single season to determine lottery odds, making it harder to manipulate standings in the late season.
• Preventing Consecutive Top-4 Picks: A proposal to prevent a team from picking in the top four of the draft in consecutive years.
• Extending Lottery to Play-In Teams: Including teams involved in the play-in tournament in the draft lottery pool.
• Disallowing Top-4 Picks after Conference Finals: Preventing teams that reach the conference finals from picking in the top four in subsequent drafts.
• Flattening Lottery Odds: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors forward, supports flattening the lottery odds, where all 14 lottery teams would have the same probability for top draft picks.

He views many other proposals as punitive and believes flattening odds would be the most effective fix, acknowledging that some teams inherently struggle and need paths to improvement.

The current draft lottery system, which flattened odds in 2019, has been argued by some to have inadvertently exacerbated the problem by encouraging more teams to aim for the lottery rather than just the bottom spot.

Recent Team Performance and Player Availability

Several teams have exhibited losing streaks and player resting strategies.

• Chicago Bulls: Experienced an 11-game losing streak, leading to a winless month in February before a recent win.
• Dallas Mavericks: Lost 13 of their last 15 games, including a nine-point home loss to the Kings.
• Brooklyn Nets: Lost eight consecutive games and 18 of their last 21.
• Indiana Pacers: Lost six consecutive games.
• Utah Jazz: Lost six consecutive games. Lauri Markkanen is being re-evaluated for a hip injury, while Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) and Jusuf Nurkic (nose) have been sidelined for the season due to injuries.
• Washington Wizards: Lost five consecutive games. Trae Young, expected to debut for the Wizards, was ejected from a home loss to the Rockets while not playing.
• Memphis Grizzlies: Lost to the Kings but secured wins against Indiana, Dallas, and Utah. Ja Morant remains out with an elbow injury.
• Sacramento Kings: Ended a 16-game losing streak with two road wins against the Grizzlies and Mavericks.

The practice of teams resting players is not isolated to the Jazz, with other teams including Washington, Brooklyn, and Sacramento also holding out key players this season. For small-market teams, building through the draft and calculated trades is viewed by some as a viable path to becoming a contender, with past examples such as the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs often cited.