Ford Motor reported its largest quarterly earnings miss in four years for its fourth-quarter results, while projecting 2026 to be a rebound year.
Ford Motor reported its largest quarterly earnings miss in four years for its fourth-quarter results, while projecting 2026 to be a rebound year.
Fourth Quarter Performance
Ford reported adjusted earnings per share of 13 cents, significantly falling short of the 19 cents expected by LSEG. This 32% miss marked the company's first quarterly miss since 2024 and its largest since 2021. Despite the earnings shortfall, automotive revenue reached $42.4 billion, exceeding the anticipated $41.83 billion.
Factors Impacting Earnings
The primary reason for the earnings miss was attributed to approximately $900 million in unexpected tariff costs. These costs were related to auto parts credits that did not take effect as initially anticipated.
The earnings miss was primarily attributed to unexpected tariff costs totaling approximately $900 million.
Additionally, impacts from fires at a Novelis aluminum supplier plant in New York contributed to the lower earnings. This Novelis plant, a crucial supplier of components for Ford's F-Series pickup trucks, is not expected to be fully operational until mid-2026. The Novelis fire had a substantial $2 billion impact on Ford during the second half of the year.
2026 Financial Guidance
Ford has provided optimistic guidance for 2026, signaling a projected rebound:
- Adjusted EBIT: Between $8 billion and $10 billion, marking an increase from $6.8 billion in 2025.
- Adjusted Free Cash Flow: Projected between $5 billion and $6 billion, up from $3.5 billion in 2025.
- Capital Expenditures: Expected to be between $9.5 billion and $10.5 billion, an increase from $8.8 billion.
The net tariff impact for 2026 is projected to remain flat year-over-year at $2 billion.
Annual and Business Unit Results
Ford's total revenue for 2025 reached a record $187.3 billion, a 1% increase from the previous year. However, the fourth-quarter revenue saw a 5% decrease year-over-year, settling at $45.9 billion.
On an unadjusted basis, Ford recorded a net loss of $8.2 billion in 2025, its largest since 2008. This significant loss was largely due to $15.5 billion in special charges recorded in the fourth quarter, primarily related to a previously announced reduction in all-electric vehicle plans. The fourth quarter alone saw an unadjusted net loss of $11.1 billion.
For its business units, Ford projects varied performances:
- Ford Pro (fleet business): Expected pre-tax earnings between $6.5 billion and $7.5 billion.
- Ford Blue (traditional business): Anticipated to generate $4 billion to $4.5 billion in pre-tax earnings.
- Model e (electric vehicle unit): Projected to incur losses of $4 billion to $4.5 billion this year. These losses are expected to be offset by the strong performance of the other business segments.