Severe Weather Threat Looms for Deep South by End of February

An atmospheric shift is anticipated to bring a potential for severe weather to the Deep South by the end of February.

Following a period of cold temperatures, a pattern change is directing mild, moisture-rich air northward from the Gulf of Mexico, potentially leading to thunderstorms later in the month. Long-range indicators suggest a broader severe weather threat could emerge during the final third of February.

Atmospheric Factors

Several high-level atmospheric factors are contributing to this forecast:

• La Niña Transition: A weakening La Niña is projected to transition towards an ENSO-neutral state by late February to early March, which can lead to more variable weather patterns.
• Trough Development: Long-range models indicate an amplified trough establishing along the West Coast by mid-February. This setup favors the development of low-pressure systems moving across the High Plains and into the Deep South.
• Pacific-North American (PNA) Index: The PNA index is forecast to become negative and persist in that phase through late February. A negative PNA often correlates with a more active storm track and increased northward movement of Gulf moisture in the South.

Forecast Details

The February 21-28 timeframe indicates a potentially rainy and more dynamic period for the Deep South. While individual storm timing remains uncertain, an increase in relevant meteorological ingredients is expected. The potential for more organized severe weather, including damaging winds or hail, is trending towards the end of the month as spring-like heat interacts with retreating winter air.