Ceasefire Announced Amidst Ongoing Conflict in Southern Lebanon

The United States has announced a new 10-day ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah. The agreement is contingent on the disarmament of Hezbollah by the Lebanese government. This announcement follows seven weeks of fighting and comes amid ongoing Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, which have resulted in civilian casualties, displacement, and deteriorating humanitarian conditions in border villages.

The Ceasefire Announcement and Terms

On a date unspecified in the provided sources, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The agreement is described as a step toward lasting peace, with a key condition being the disarmament of Hezbollah by the Lebanese government.

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that disarming Hezbollah is a critical demand for any wider peace settlement and that Israeli forces will remain stationed 10 kilometers inside southern Lebanon.
• Hezbollah has indicated a willingness to abide by the ceasefire if it includes a comprehensive halt to attacks across Lebanon and does not grant freedom of movement to Israeli forces.

This follows a previous ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S. and France in November 2024, which was intended to lead to a permanent cessation of hostilities.

Ongoing Military Operations and Civilian Impact

Despite ceasefire agreements, military activity has continued in southern Lebanon. In early March, following rocket fire from Hezbollah into Israel, Israel launched a ground invasion and intensive aerial bombing campaign in a zone of southern Lebanon.

Recent incidents include:

• An airstrike on a vehicle in the village of Froun, which the Israeli military stated killed a "Hezbollah terrorist."
• A tank attack on the Christian village of Débel in late March, which severely injured resident Bashir Nadaff with shrapnel. Nadaff reported his home was hit repeatedly while he sheltered his family inside.
• An Israeli strike outside Beirut that killed Hezbollah's chief of staff and four others.

Israel has ordered hundreds of thousands of residents in southern Lebanon to evacuate, citing safety risks. Thousands have refused to leave, including residents of Christian villages like Débel and Rmeich, citing fears of permanent displacement.

• Residents of Débel report the only accessible road is blocked by the Israeli military, trapping people and cutting off access to a drinking water well.
• The Lebanese Army, which had been facilitating safe passage for supplies, has withdrawn from the area. Local religious leaders have issued public appeals for state protection.

Conflicting Claims and Violations

Different parties have made conflicting statements regarding adherence to previous agreements and current activities.

• Israeli officials state their operations target Hezbollah militants and infrastructure, not civilians.
• They allege Hezbollah has been working to re-establish military capabilities south of the Litani River, violating the 2024 ceasefire, and has increased production of explosive drones.
• Israel has announced its intention to establish control in southern Lebanon up to the Litani River (approximately 30 km north of the border) to create a "buffer zone." Defense Minister Israel Katz has indicated plans to demolish all homes in border villages to create this zone.

• Hezbollah denies Israeli allegations of rearming in the south. The group states the ceasefire terms regarding its arsenal only apply to the area south of the Litani River.
• Hezbollah's secretary general, Naim Qassem, stated the group would "never" surrender its weapons, which it calls the "source of its strength."
• The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) reports it has not observed military activity by Hezbollah or attempts to rebuild infrastructure south of the Litani. UNIFIL also reports over 10,000 Israeli air and ground violations since the November 2024 ceasefire.
• Lebanese authorities consider a concrete wall built by Israeli soldiers inside Lebanese territory near Yaroun a violation of sovereignty.

The Disarmament Debate and Political Divisions

The condition of Hezbollah's disarmament is a central point of contention.

• Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has promised a "state monopoly on arms" but has declined to use force against Hezbollah, warning it could risk civil war.
• Hezbollah is a Shia Muslim group with significant political and military influence in Lebanon. It functions as a political party with government representation and provides social services in some areas. Countries including the U.S., UK, and Australia designate it as a terrorist organization.
• Some residents in southern Lebanon have begun to publicly question Hezbollah's stance due to exhaustion from the conflict. In the village of Beit Lif, after an Israeli warning, residents called for the Lebanese army to be deployed.
• The Lebanese army is expected to announce the completion of Hezbollah's disarmament in areas south of the Litani next month, with plans to address its presence in other parts of the country afterward.

• A Western diplomat indicated Lebanese authorities are under increasing pressure from the U.S. administration, which is reportedly frustrated with the pace of disarmament.
• Karim Makdisi, an associate professor at the American University of Beirut, stated that expecting the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah quickly is unrealistic, as the group views itself as a necessary shield against Israel.

Casualties and Displacement

The conflict has resulted in significant loss of life and displacement:

• A previous 13-month conflict that ended in November 2024 resulted in approximately 4,000 Lebanese and 120 Israeli fatalities.
• Since the November 2024 ceasefire, the Lebanese health ministry reports Israeli attacks have caused more than 330 fatalities, including civilians. The UN reported over 100 civilian deaths in the period following that ceasefire.
• Since the escalation of conflict last month, nearly 1,300 people have been reported killed in Lebanon and over one million displaced.
• Communities along the border remain significantly damaged, with international partners declining to fund reconstruction, partly due to the impasse over Hezbollah's disarmament.