AUKUS: Progress, Delays, and Uncertainties in the Nuclear Submarine Pact

A series of recent reports, testimonies, and strategic documents reveal a complex picture of progress, production delays, funding concerns, and geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the core objective of providing nuclear-powered submarines to Australia.

US Military and Industrial Base Assessments

Commander's Testimony

Admiral Samuel Paparo, the US Indo-Pacific Commander, testified before the US Senate Armed Services Committee, stating the US requires increased naval firepower in the region. He reported insufficient numbers of amphibious ships, surface destroyers, and attack submarines.

Admiral Paparo argued for increased production of ships, weaponry, and equipment, including aircraft carriers, hypersonic missiles, and low-cost drones. He described current production timelines as misaligned with operational needs.

Production Delays and Contract Issues

A multi-year procurement contract for Virginia-class submarines, authorized by Congress in December 2023, has remained unsigned for 28 months, exceeding the timeline for prior comparable contracts, according to Congressman Joe Courtney (D-CT). The delay is attributed to increased complexity from coupling with a Columbia-class submarine contract.

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis indicates submarine construction timelines have lengthened. Boats that took five to six years in the early 2000s now average nine to ten years. The production rate was 1.15 submarines per year in 2024, down from 1.2 in 2023. The Navy's goal is 2.33 submarines per year.

"A 100 percent improvement is required to achieve the target delivery pace for AUKUS obligations." — Admiral Daryl Caudle, Chief of Naval Operations

Admiral Daryl Caudle acknowledged production difficulties, stating a 100 percent improvement is required to achieve the target delivery pace for AUKUS obligations. Elbridge Colby, Under Secretary of War for Policy, questioned the feasibility of supplying Australia with new-build submarines if American shipyards cannot meet existing production schedules.

Contract Award

The Pentagon awarded a $197 million contract to General Dynamics Electric Boat for engineering and design work to support submarine capability transfer. The contract is covered by a $3 billion payment from Australia. General Dynamics Electric Boat plans to hire 4,600 additional workers at its Groton, Connecticut shipyard.

Assessments of Australia's and UK's Readiness

Australian Infrastructure

Admiral Paparo praised the pace of upgrades at HMAS Stirling naval base in Western Australia, which is undergoing a decade-long upgrade. He stated that the US could move submarines to Stirling immediately given current Australian capabilities. US submarine rotations through HMAS Stirling are scheduled to begin next year.

Australian Government Position

Australia released the 2026 National Defence Strategy, outlining a $53 billion increase in defence spending over the next decade, reaching 3% of GDP. The strategy maintains a defensive posture of denial and notes significant progress in implementing the 2024 plan.

"The AUKUS deal is proceeding as planned." — Defence Minister Richard Marles

Defence Minister Richard Marles stated the AUKUS deal is proceeding as planned. The Australian Submarine Agency confirmed the deal is progressing on schedule. Australia has invested over $4 billion to support US submarine production and announced a $2.75 billion investment in a submarine construction yard at Osborne, South Australia.

UK Program Concerns

A UK House of Commons Defence Committee report expressed concerns about the UK's ability to deliver the SSN-AUKUS submarines on schedule. The report describes the program as a "lengthy and complex undertaking" requiring sustained financial commitment and notes signs that the investment pipeline has "faltered."

"Funding shortfalls risk failure to deliver on time." — UK House of Commons Defence Committee

The report warns that funding shortfalls risk failure to deliver on time. The UK has committed £16 billion to AUKUS, and Australia has transferred $5 billion to upgrade the UK industrial base.

The report also notes the Royal Navy's Astute submarine fleet is stretched, citing the recall of HMS Anson from Western Australia in early 2026. HMS Anson had commenced a journey to join the Submarine Rotational Force–West in Western Australia.

Congressional and Independent Analyses

US Congressional Research Service Report

A January 2026 report by the US Congressional Research Service (CRS) considered an alternative to selling Virginia-class submarines to Australia. The report proposed a "military division of labour" where submarines earmarked for Australia would remain under US command and operate from Australian bases.

The report argued this could ensure immediate deployment in a conflict with China over Taiwan, as Australian-commanded submarines might not be ordered into operation without Australian support. The report notes Australia has made no commitment to support the US in such a conflict.

The CRS report also highlighted cybersecurity concerns regarding sharing nuclear submarine technology with Australia, noting active attempts by hackers linked to China to penetrate Australian systems.

Independent Assessments

A December 2025 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies stated the US is unlikely to increase its submarine build rate sufficiently for transfer to Australia without impacting its own operational capabilities.

"Nuclear submarines are only worth having if they are a net addition to defence capability." — Former Defence Department secretary Dennis Richardson

Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull described the agreement as "lop-sided" in favor of the US, arguing the US benefits from a submarine base and dockyard in Western Australia without a firm obligation to sell submarines. Former Defence Department secretary Dennis Richardson stated nuclear submarines are only worth having if they are a net addition to defence capability.

Political and Alliance Considerations

US-Australia Relations

Congressman Joe Courtney described President Donald Trump's repeated criticism of Australia as "damaging to US relations with allies." Courtney stated AUKUS would survive the current administration and affirmed delivery deadlines would be met.

"No alternative alliance could replace it." — Shadow Defence Minister James Paterson

Shadow Defence Minister James Paterson acknowledged the Trump administration has altered the Australia-US relationship but stated no alternative alliance could replace it. Paterson suggested Australia consider acquiring the US B-21 stealth bomber to address a potential capability gap before submarines enter service.

Geopolitical Context

Admiral Paparo reported that since 2024, China has delivered 12 submarines, one aircraft carrier, two cruisers, 10 destroyers, and seven frigates. He noted China's cooperation with North Korea and Russia could exacerbate regional security challenges.

The US National Defence Strategy has called on regional allies to help defend the "first island chain" running from the Philippines to Taiwan to the Japanese islands.