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AFL 2026 Season Preview: Analysts Offer Contrasting Views on Team Prospects Based on Statistical Models and Expert Predictions

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2026 AFL Season Preview: Analytical Models Point to Shifts in Fortunes

Multiple analytical models and expert forecasts released ahead of the 2026 AFL season present differing assessments of team performance, with some teams identified as potential improvers while others are predicted to decline.

Premiership Window Analysis (Round 10, 2026)

Only two teams currently meet the elite premiership criterion that 18 of the last 20 premiers have satisfied.

Fox Footy’s 'Premiership Window' graphic, which uses Champion Data to identify teams ranked in the top six for both points scored and points allowed, indicates that after Round 10 of the 2026 season, only two teams meet this criterion:

  • Sydney Swans (1st for points scored, 2nd for points allowed)
  • Gold Coast Suns (5th for points scored, 6th for points allowed)

A historical note states that 18 of the last 20 premiers met this criterion after the home-and-away season.

Near the Window

  • Fremantle ranks 7th in attack and 1st in defence, placing them just outside the window.
  • Geelong ranks 3rd in attack and 7th in defence.

Commentators Nathan Buckley and Jordan Lewis noted that the sample size is reasonable, with Buckley stating Fremantle is "next in line."

Expected Wins (xWins) Analysis for 2025

The Wheelo Ratings 'xWins' model calculates the expected number of wins for a team based on expected scores in each game. A significant discrepancy between a team's actual wins and its xWins suggests a potential regression or improvement.

For the 2025 season, twelve of 18 clubs finished within one win of their xWins total. Six clubs displayed significant deviations:

Overperformers (Actual wins higher than xWins)

  • GWS Giants won 3.5 more games than expected. This marked their second consecutive season of overperforming by more than three wins.
  • Adelaide Crows won 2.9 more games than anticipated in 2025. The analysis suggests a potential regression for the Crows in the 2026 season.

Underperformers (Actual wins lower than xWins)

  • Melbourne Demons lost 4.0 more games than expected.
  • North Melbourne lost 2.0 more games than expected.
  • West Coast Eagles lost 1.7 more games than expected. The analysis notes that their 1-22 record may not fully reflect their underlying performance.

Pythagorean Wins Forecast for 2026

Foxfooty.com.au’s annual Pythagorean wins forecast uses a team's points scored and points allowed from the previous season to estimate expected wins. A gap of 2.5 or more games between actual and Pythagorean wins is associated with an accuracy rate of 78.2% for predictions.

Strongest Predictions for the 2026 Season

Team 2025 Record Gap Prediction Western Bulldogs 14-9 (137%) 3.8 fewer wins Improvement Melbourne 7-16 (93.3%) 3.0 fewer wins Improvement Fremantle 16-7 (109%) 2.6 more wins Decline Port Adelaide 9-14 (79.8%) 2.2 more wins Decline Brisbane Lions 16-6-1 (114.2%) 2.1 more wins Decline

Softer Predictions (Unofficial) for the 2026 Season

Team 2025 Record Gap Prediction West Coast Eagles 1-22 (60.1%) 1.8 fewer wins Improvement Carlton 9-14 (96.7%) 1.7 fewer wins Improvement

Expert Projections for the 2026 Season Ladder

AFL.com.au’s team of nine journalists released an averaged projection for the 2026 ladder.

Predicted 2026 AFL Ladder (Top 6)

Position Team 1 Brisbane 2 Fremantle 3 Sydney 4 Gold Coast 5 Geelong 6 Western Bulldogs

Other Key Predictions

  • Adelaide and GWS are projected for wildcard positions.
  • Hawthorn and St Kilda are also projected for wildcard positions.
  • Collingwood and Carlton are predicted to miss the top eight.
  • West Coast was uniformly selected to finish in 18th place.