Back
Sports

AFL 2025 Season Performance Analyzed, 2026 Season Predictions Released

Generated on: Last updated: 4 sources
View source

AFL 2025-2026 Season Outlook: Statistical Shifts and Expert Forecasts

Statistical models and expert projections have provided insights into AFL team performance during the 2025 season and offered forecasts for the upcoming 2026 season. Analysis of "expected wins" metrics, which estimate a team's win-loss record based on underlying performance data like scoring differentials, revealed several clubs significantly overperformed or underperformed their statistical expectations in 2025, suggesting potential shifts in their 2026 outcomes.

A panel of experts has released their collective projections for the 2026 ladder, identifying a potential non-Victorian dominated top four.

2025 Season Performance: Expected Wins Analysis

Metrics such as 'xWins' and 'Pythagorean expectation' assess a team's expected number of wins based on its scoring differential. The difference between a club's actual wins and its expected wins can indicate whether its record aligns with its underlying performance.

Historically, the Pythagorean expectation formula has demonstrated accuracy in predicting future changes in win-loss records; for predictions with a gap of 2.5 or more games between actual and Pythagorean wins, the accuracy rate has been 78.2% (18 out of 23 predictions correct).

In the 2025 AFL season, twelve of the 18 clubs finished within one win of their expected wins total, indicating their records generally aligned with performance. However, six clubs displayed notable deviations:

Teams that Overperformed (won more games than expected):
  • The GWS Giants won 3.5 more games than statistically anticipated, marking their second consecutive season exceeding expected wins by over three games.
  • Minor premiers Adelaide won 2.9 more games than indicated by their performance data.
  • Fremantle recorded 2.6 more wins than their Pythagorean expectation.
  • Port Adelaide's actual win total was 2.2 games higher than their Pythagorean expectation.
  • The Brisbane Lions, reigning premiers, won 2.1 more games than statistically expected.
  • For context, the Collingwood Magpies won 4.8 more games than expected in the 2023 season, becoming the only premiership side since 2021 to exceed their xWins by more than 1.0 game.
Teams that Underperformed (won fewer games than expected):
  • The Melbourne Demons lost 4.0 more games than expected, indicating their performance was closer to teams like Sydney and Carlton based on metrics. Their Pythagorean wins suggested they performed at a level closer to a nine or ten-win team, experiencing significant losses in close games during 2025.
  • The Western Bulldogs underperformed by 3.8 wins, achieving the third-best percentage in the AFL in 2025 and being competitive in all their games, with nine losses ranging from six to 22 points.
  • North Melbourne lost 2.0 more games than expected.
  • West Coast underperformed by 1.7 to 1.8 games, suggesting their 1-22 record might not fully reflect their underlying performance level.
  • Carlton's actual win total was 1.7 games lower than their Pythagorean expectation, despite being competitive in their losses.

2026 Season Predictions Based on Expected Wins

Based on the 2025 season's expected wins analysis, specific teams are projected for changes in their 2026 win-loss records:

Predicted to Improve:
  • Western Bulldogs: Forecasted to improve following a 3.8-win underperformance in 2025.
  • Melbourne: Projected to improve, having underperformed by 3 wins in 2025.
  • West Coast Eagles: Predicted to improve, with their 2025 Pythagorean wins suggesting they should have achieved at least two or three wins more than their actual record, including an 0-4 record in games decided by less than two goals.
  • Carlton: Expected to improve, as their 2025 performance was statistically stronger than their nine actual wins indicated.
Predicted to Decline:
  • Fremantle: Forecasted to decline after overperforming by 2.6 wins in 2025. Their 2025 finals appearance followed a shift in close-game outcomes, winning five of eight such matches compared to a 1-5 record with a draw in 2024.
  • Port Adelaide: Predicted to decline, having overperformed by 2.2 wins in 2025, with their overall performance indicating a team less aligned with their nine wins, including seven losses by eight goals or more.
  • Brisbane Lions: Projected to decline, as their 2025 season involved winning approximately two games more than their statistical expectation, including losses to Melbourne and Sydney at home and a draw with North Melbourne.

AFL.com.au Expert Panel 2026 Ladder Projections

An average of nine expert predictions from AFL.com.au journalists has been compiled for the 2026 AFL season ladder. The consensus projects a top four composed entirely of non-Victorian teams, which would be the first occurrence in twenty years if these predictions materialize.

Projected Top 4:
  1. Brisbane
  2. Fremantle
  3. Sydney
  4. Gold Coast
Projected Top 8 / Wildcard Positions:
  • Geelong (5th)
  • Western Bulldogs (6th)
  • Adelaide (7th)
  • Hawthorn (8th)
  • St Kilda (9th)
  • Greater Western Sydney (10th)
Other Noteworthy Projections:
  • Collingwood (11th) and Carlton (12th) are predicted to finish outside the top ten.
  • West Coast was uniformly selected to finish last (18th).
Full Predicted 2026 AFL Ladder (AFL.com.au Experts):
  1. Brisbane
  2. Fremantle
  3. Sydney
  4. Gold Coast
  5. Geelong
  6. Western Bulldogs
  7. Adelaide
  8. Hawthorn
  9. St Kilda
  10. Greater Western Sydney
  11. Collingwood
  12. Carlton
  13. Port Adelaide
  14. Melbourne
  15. Essendon
  16. North Melbourne
  17. Richmond
  18. West Coast

2025 Pythagorean Wins Ladder (For Entertainment Only):

This ladder reflects how teams would have ranked in 2025 based purely on their Pythagorean expected wins, offering a different perspective on actual ladder positions.

  1. Geelong (18.2 wins) [Actual ladder: 17 wins, 2nd]
  2. Adelaide Crows (18 wins) [Actual ladder: 18 wins, 1st]
  3. Western Bulldogs (17.7 wins) [Actual ladder: 14 wins, 9th]
  4. Gold Coast Suns (16.2 wins) [Actual ladder: 15 wins, 7th]
  5. Collingwood (15.8 wins) [Actual ladder: 16 wins, 4th]
  6. Hawthorn (15.5 wins) [Actual ladder: 15 wins, 8th]
  7. GWS Giants (14.6 wins) [Actual ladder: 16 wins, 5th]
  8. Brisbane Lions (14.4 wins) [Actual ladder: 16.5 wins, 3rd]
  9. Fremantle (13.4 wins) [Actual ladder: 16 wins, 6th]
  10. Sydney Swans (10.8 wins) [Actual ladder: 12 wins, 10th]
  11. Carlton (10.7 wins) [Actual ladder: 9 wins, 11th]
  12. Melbourne (10 wins) [Actual ladder: 7 wins, 14th]
  13. St Kilda (8.8 wins) [Actual ladder: 9 wins, 12th]
  14. Port Adelaide (6.8 wins) [Actual ladder: 9 wins, 13th]
  15. North Melbourne (6 wins) [Actual ladder: 5.5 wins, 16th]
  16. Essendon (4.5 wins) [Actual ladder: 6 wins, 15th]
  17. Richmond (3.8 wins) [Actual ladder: 5 wins, 17th]
  18. West Coast Eagles (2.8 wins) [Actual ladder: 1 win, 18th]