U.S. Census Bureau Scales Back 2026 Field Test Amidst New Proposals
The U.S. Census Bureau's 2026 field test for the 2030 census has been scaled back to two locations and will explore using U.S. Postal Service staff. Concurrently, the Trump administration proposes including a U.S. citizenship question in the test, amidst ongoing debates and legal challenges over the population base for political representation and federal funding.
2026 Census Field Test Modifications
The U.S. Census Bureau's 2026 field test, designed to inform preparations for the 2030 census, has been significantly scaled back. Initially planned for a mix of communities in six states and a national household sample, the test is now reduced to two locations: Spartanburg, South Carolina, and Huntsville, Alabama, encompassing approximately 155,000 households.
Further changes include the elimination of Spanish and Chinese language options for the online census test form, which will now only be available in English. Locations removed from the test include rural areas in western Texas and Indigenous tribal lands in Arizona (Fort Apache Reservation, San Carlos Reservation) and North Carolina (Qualla Boundary).
The bureau is also exploring a proposal to involve U.S. Postal Service (USPS) staff in place of temporary census workers. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has supported this approach, citing potential cost savings. However, a 2011 Government Accountability Office report indicated that using higher-paid mail carriers might not be cost-effective. USPS stated its participation in the test and referred further questions to the Commerce Department.
These changes have led to concerns from individuals such as Terri Ann Lowenthal, a census consultant, who stated they could lead to a less accurate population count, particularly in rural and American Indian communities. The cutbacks follow the bureau's decision not to update congressional overseers, the disbandment of its external advisory committees, and staff departures over the past year. Preparation for the census test also faced previous delays due to uncertain funding and issues with finalizing a staffing plan. A plan to contact administrators of group-living quarters for the test was awaiting White House agency approval and was not mentioned in the revised test announcement.
Proposed Citizenship Question
The Trump administration has proposed including a U.S. citizenship question in the 2026 field test, aligning with previous calls to exclude non-legal residents from census counts.
This proposal is detailed in a regulatory filing for the test. It aligns with previous statements from President Trump advocating for a census that would exclude individuals residing in the country without legal status, which could influence redistricting efforts.
Republican lawmakers in Congress support similar proposals to omit some or all non-U.S. citizens from census numbers used to determine each state's allocation of congressional seats and Electoral College votes. The 14th Amendment specifies that census apportionment counts must include the "whole number of persons in each state."
The questionnaire for the test utilizes a form from the annual American Community Survey, which is more extensive than recent national census forms. It includes questions on citizenship status, income sources, and housing features. The Census Bureau or the Commerce Department spokespersons have not clarified the reason for using this specific survey form.
The form does not incorporate changes to racial and ethnic categories approved by the Biden administration for the 2030 census and other federal surveys, which include new checkboxes for "Middle Eastern or North African" and "Hispanic or Latino." A White House agency official stated in December that the Trump administration is considering reversing these modifications.
Census advocates have expressed concerns that the plan to include a citizenship question may discourage participation from historically undercounted populations, such as households with immigrants and mixed-status families. Previous research conducted by the Census Bureau indicated that the inclusion of a citizenship question would likely compromise the accuracy of the count by reducing response rates. Federal law prohibits the Census Bureau from releasing information that could identify an individual.
During the first Trump administration, the U.S. Supreme Court prevented a citizenship question from being added to the 2020 census but did not issue a ruling on whether a president could exclude individuals without legal status from apportionment counts. In a recent filing to the White House's Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Census Bureau stated that the form for this year's census test "will ask no questions of a sensitive nature." The OMB is responsible for deciding whether the proposed questions will proceed.
Redistricting Debate and Legal Challenges
A legal and political debate is intensifying regarding the population base used for drawing state legislative districts, with some advocating a shift from total population to "eligible voters."
Traditionally, these districts have been based on the total number of people living in an area. However, Republican officials in some states are advocating for a shift to using a narrower population metric: only "eligible voters," generally defined as adult U.S. citizens, excluding non-citizens and all children. Proponents suggest this change would likely shift political influence from younger, more racially diverse urban areas to older, predominantly white rural regions.
In 2016, the Supreme Court ruled that states are permitted to draw legislative districts based on total population, emphasizing that representatives serve all residents. However, the Court did not definitively rule on the legality of using only adult citizens, with Justice Samuel Alito noting it as an important question for future consideration.
Some Republican-led states, including Missouri, have initiated lawsuits aimed at compelling the U.S. Census Bureau to release block-level data on U.S. citizenship status. This data would be necessary to implement adult citizen-based redistricting plans. Missouri's lawsuit follows voter-approved redistricting requirements in 2020. Missouri's legal complaint asserts that including residents without legal status and those with nonimmigrant visas in census data skews legislative redistricting and hinders compliance with the "one person, one vote" principle. A former Missouri solicitor general indicated the state's constitution's redistricting criteria could be interpreted as based on the number of eligible voters.
Implementing adult citizen-based redistricting would likely necessitate adding a U.S. citizenship question to census forms or utilizing existing government records to determine citizenship status.
A 2015 report suggested adult citizen-based redistricting would favor Republicans and non-Hispanic Whites. However, a subsequent 2021 study indicated that while such redistricting could reduce opportunities for Black or Latino voters to elect preferred candidates in racially polarized voting areas (notably Arizona, Florida, New York, and Texas), it would not significantly alter the partisan balance of power in most state legislatures. Exceptions identified were Florida and Texas, where Republican control of the state legislatures would likely be further solidified.
Former President Trump's 2019 executive order supported the use of citizenship data for designing districts based on voter-eligible citizens. His administration later revoked a Biden-era order that had rescinded the 2019 order. The current Trump administration has also signaled a potential formal position on excluding some noncitizens from apportionment counts.
Immigrant advocacy and civil rights organizations, including the NAACP, are challenging these efforts. They have sought to intervene in lawsuits, such as Missouri's, arguing that excluding certain categories of immigrants would dilute the votes of Black residents in urban areas, potentially skewing results in favor of more rural areas.