Australia's $4 Billion 'Thriving Kids' Program to Replace NDIS for Children Under Nine

A major shift in disability support is underway, aiming to manage the soaring costs of the National Disability Insurance Scheme.

The Australian federal government is implementing the Thriving Kids program, a $4 billion initiative that will replace the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) for children under nine years old assessed as having mild to moderate developmental delays and autism. The program is part of broader efforts to manage the growth of the NDIS, which is projected to cost over $50 billion in the current financial year. Children assessed with severe, permanent disabilities will remain eligible for the NDIS.

Program Overview and Timeline

Implementation Schedule

• Phase 1 Start: October 2025
• Full Rollout: Expected by January 2028
• Federal Contribution: $4 billion, jointly funded by the Commonwealth, states, and territories

Program Structure

States and territories will operate their own versions of Thriving Kids based on a national model developed by an advisory group. The program focuses on early identification of support needs and providing baseline support that can be escalated if required.

"Children with significant permanent disability will remain eligible for the NDIS."

Three Stages of the Program

Stage 1 – Identification: Delays or support needs can be identified by family members, schools, or health professionals.

Stage 2 – Connection: Families will be linked to appropriate support through online directories, access to health professionals, and resources to upskill educators and medical practitioners.

Stage 3 – Supports: Categorized by need level:

Legislative and Funding Context

NDIS Reforms

Legislation including the "Getting the NDIS Back on Track bill" commenced in October 2024. Changes implemented since then include:

• New definitions for fundable supports
• Funding caps for certain therapies
• Limits on travel costs for allied health workers
• Implementation of funding periods

The government states these changes are necessary for the scheme's long-term sustainability.

Hospital Funding Agreement

The federal government committed an additional $25 billion in new public hospital funding over five years, with the Commonwealth share rising to 42.5% by 2030 and 45% by 2035. States and territories agreed to deliver disability services outside the NDIS, including Thriving Kids, as part of this agreement. National cabinet agreed to work towards an annual growth target of 6% or less for public hospital funding.

Projected Participant Numbers

Health Minister Mark Butler stated that initial modeling projects the number of NDIS participants will reduce from approximately 760,000 to around 600,000 by the end of the decade under new eligibility rules.

Departmental modeling indicates more than 240,000 participants may be moved off the NDIS in the four years after new eligibility rules begin in 2028.

The health minister stated that autistic children under nine would be included in Thriving Kids, while other autistic individuals would be assessed using a new objective assessment tool.

Upcoming Reforms for 2026

• New Assessment Model (I-CAN): The National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA) plans to roll out an online tool for determining support plans, aiming to standardize funding decisions.
• Changes to Appeal Rights: In most cases, the Administrative Review Tribunal (ART) will no longer be able to alter a person's plan to increase funding.

Stakeholder Statements and Concerns

Expert and Advisory Panel Perspectives

David Trembath, head of autism research at the Kids Research Institute Australia, stated that drawing clear lines between low, moderate, or high support needs is difficult, as needs can fluctuate based on environment and time. He expressed concern that children with moderate needs might not receive adequate support through Thriving Kids and that inadequate early support could lead to escalated needs requiring NDIS support later.

Tim Jones, a member of the Thriving Kids advisory panel, stated that the state-based implementation model deviates from the panel's original recommendations and expressed concern that the program may have been used as a bargaining chip during hospital funding negotiations.

Advisory panel chair Frank Oberklaid expressed optimism but noted the transition would be "messy in the first instance." He characterized the existing system as "broken" and advocated for an approach focusing on individual differences.

Advocate Concerns

Autistic advocate Clare Gibellini expressed concern that assessment processes might underestimate support requirements if children mask their autistic traits during evaluations. She also stated that many in the autistic community are uncomfortable with the use of labels such as "mild," "moderate," and "severe" autism.

Parent Perspectives

Alice Tran, mother of two children currently receiving NDIS support (Christian, 5, and Nik, 8), stated that while her children might appear moderate on paper, they require constant supervision and that their needs fluctuate daily.

"Group therapies proposed under Thriving Kids would not work for my children."

Tran expressed concern that tailored NDIS support has been crucial. She stated she has stopped reading about Thriving Kids due to stress and emphasized that parents need support.

Reported Impacts on NDIS Participants

Advocates report that some families are experiencing reductions or rejections of support plans. According to the Australian Neurodivergent Parents Association:

• Exits of children with developmental delay rose from 7,270 in 2023 to 40,900 in 2025
• Developmental delay participants peaked at 88,112 in March 2025, then fell to 70,602 by December 2025

Association president Sarah Langston stated that approximately 29,000 participants have partially or totally lost access to NDIS supports since the end of 2024, with some experiencing reductions while eligibility remains.

Specific Cases Reported

• An eight-year-old with level-two autism, intellectual disability, and an eating disorder had therapy funding cut to seven hours of dietitian time per year after a change in family circumstances. Advocate Jayde Parker spent two years appealing the decision, resulting in restoration of $120,000 to the plan. During the appeal, the NDIA instructed the family to wait for Thriving Kids.
• A five-year-old with level-two autism and a feeding condition had most of the NDIS plan removed after a change in circumstances, including elimination of transport support requiring a three-hour daily public transport journey for school.

State and Territory Government Positions

State and territory disability ministers raised concerns in a joint submission to a Senate inquiry, stating they cannot provide like-for-like services for over 200,000 participants expected to exit the scheme by 2031. They said they were not meaningfully consulted and expressed concern about unilateral powers given to the federal NDIS minister. The submission warned that without a coordinated approach, people with disability may end up in inappropriate settings.

NSW Premier Chris Minns acknowledged the need for an affordable program but warned that equivalent care may not be provided by the state system.

Queensland is the only state that has not signed on to the deal. Queensland Disability Minister Amanda Camm criticized federal consultation and called the program a "cost-shifting exercise."

Workforce and Implementation Concerns

Allied health groups question the capacity of their sectors, especially in regional and rural areas, to deliver services.

Michelle Oliver, Chief Occupational Therapist at Occupational Therapy Australia, stated that if funding and commissioning models do not adequately support children's access to services, Thriving Kids will fail.

Kathryn McKinley of Speech Pathology Australia advocated for a new Medicare item and a voucher system for families.

The Australian Education Union welcomed the program's intent but highlighted that teachers and principals are already overburdened. Federal president Correna Haythorpe stated that Thriving Kids must include provisions for additional staff to manage increased administrative load.

Liberal MP and paediatrician Monique Ryan said the program is rolling out too quickly, before states have established alternative services.

Victorian Liberal Party Proposal

The Victorian opposition announced the "Successful School Starters" plan, a $156 million proposal to observe all children in their first year of school for signs of autism or ADHD. The plan would embed occupational therapists and speech pathologists in the existing Primary School Nursing Program, scheduled for implementation by term 1 of 2028. The policy does not fund treatment but focuses on early detection and guiding families through the diagnostic process.

Government Response

A government spokesperson stated that the Commonwealth, states, and territories are finalizing national and local services for Thriving Kids. State and territory governments will deliver child development assessments, general parenting supports, local navigation services, targeted supports, and workforce readiness measures. Some information about supports and service design is being published online.

Federal NDIS and Health Minister Mark Butler stated that the final design of Thriving Kids would be finalized after bilateral agreements with states and territories are signed. He expressed confidence in the workforce's ability to adapt, suggesting that health and education staff may need to work and be compensated differently.

Mr. Butler did not answer specific questions about:

• Assessment processes
• How masking would be addressed
• Confidence in servicing moderate-needs children
• Parenting course details

An NDIA spokesperson stated there have been no changes to access criteria for children or eligibility assessment, noting that eligibility reassessments for children entering under age nine have always been part of the scheme.

Data and Statistics

Key figures on the NDIS landscape:

Program Launch: October 2025 | Full Rollout: January 2028