Conservative Rift Deepens: Joyce and Boyce Chart Divergent Paths as One Nation Surges
The fallout from One Nation's strong showing in the Farrer byelection is sending shockwaves through conservative politics, prompting leadership challenges and candidacy speculation from two key figures: Barnaby Joyce and Colin Boyce.
Barnaby Joyce Signals Potential Return to Lower House
Barnaby Joyce, currently serving as a One Nation MP, has indicated he may re-enter the race for the federal seat of New England at the next election. This marks a shift from his previous statement last year that he would not recontest the seat.
"If One Nation appears likely to win a 'reasonable number' of House of Representatives seats, the party would likely request he stand for New England."
In a television interview, Joyce clarified his conditional position: if One Nation looks poised to secure multiple lower house seats, he will run for New England. If that is not the case, he will instead pursue a Senate spot.
Colin Boyce Launches Leadership Challenge Against Littleproud
Nationals MP Colin Boyce, representing the central Queensland seat of Flynn, has announced he will challenge party leader David Littleproud. Boyce has framed his leadership spill as an attempt to restore the Coalition agreement with the Liberal Party.
Boyce argued that Littleproud's position is "untenable," citing that the Coalition agreement has broken down twice under his leadership. He claimed the Liberal Party is hesitant to form agreements with Littleproud due to past incidents.
"The goal of my spill motion is to re-establish a Coalition agreement with the Liberal Party."
Boyce affirmed his intention to remain with the National Party "at this point in time," but suggested both the Liberal and National parties require a change in leadership.
The Farrer Byelection: A "Wake-Up Call"
The Farrer byelection delivered a seismic result: One Nation secured approximately 40% of the primary vote, while the Coalition managed just over 20%. The Liberal Party's primary vote dropped over 30% following Sussan Ley's resignation after being rolled as leader. The Nationals' primary vote was under 10%.
The seat had been held by the Coalition for 76 years.
Boyce described the outcome as a "wake-up call" for conservative politics.
"The reality of what has happened last night has to be put into perspective: so approximately 40% primary vote in the Farrer byelection [was] for One Nation, so the big question is, what does that look like in central Queensland?"
He claimed that Central Queensland is "quite happy to vote One Nation." Despite this, in February Boyce told Sky News he would not defect, stating, "That's not happening for me, I am a member of the LNP."
Joyce's Advice to the Nationals
Joyce advised against the Nationals rushing back into a Coalition with the Liberal Party following their recent split. He described Boyce's proposal for a rapid return to the Coalition as "chaotic."
Joyce stated he was not disappointed by Boyce's decision not to defect to One Nation, saying changing political parties should be a carefully considered decision. He acknowledged Boyce's leadership challenge as his prerogative and offered well wishes.
His message to other politicians on the political right was to maintain their positions, suggesting public fatigue with parties perceived as "chasing polls."
Background on Colin Boyce
- First elected to the federal seat of Flynn in 2022.
- Background: A cattle farmer and a founding member of a club promoting climate science denial.
- He previously described blackouts as a "big political opportunity."
- Electoral history: In 2017, One Nation received 25.6% of the vote in the state seat of Callide, while Boyce received 33.4%. In 2020, after being endorsed by Pauline Hanson, his primary vote exceeded 57%.