College Basketball Game Statistics and Expert Predictions Released for Specific Dates

Expert Insights: Greg Peterson's College Basketball Predictions

Expert handicapper Greg Peterson offers a comprehensive breakdown and predictions for a series of college basketball matchups spanning late January and February. His analyses delve into detailed team statistics, including offensive and defensive efficiencies, shooting percentages, pace of play, and rebounding capabilities, providing a data-driven foundation for each selection.

Friday, January 30

Cornell showcases a fast-paced offense, ranking 16th in possessions and 40th in points per possession. However, their defense struggles significantly, ranking 351st in points per possession allowed. Princeton's road defense is also concerning, positioned at 266th in points per possession allowed.

Offensively, Cornell excels from beyond the arc, holding the 12th national rank in three-point shooting at 39.1%, while their three-point defense is among the worst at 361st. Princeton strategically leverages three-pointers, with 49.3% of their road shots coming from long range.

Both teams exhibit significant defensive vulnerabilities, especially in points per possession allowed and three-point defense, while Princeton's offensive strategy aligns with Cornell's defensive weakness from deep.

• Predictions: Cornell -5.5 and Over 161

IU Indianapolis adopts a rapid pace, ranking 11th in possessions per game. However, their defense is severely challenged, ranking 342nd against two-point shooting and 362nd against three-point shooting.

Youngstown State holds an advantage in offensive rebounding, ranking 98th nationally. This is particularly impactful against an IU Indianapolis squad that ranks 360th in defensive rebounding.

With IU Indianapolis's fast pace and porous defense, combined with Youngstown State's offensive rebounding strength, a high-scoring game is anticipated.

• Prediction: Over 157.5

Both the Norse and the Titans maintain a moderately fast tempo of play. Northern Kentucky demonstrates strong ball security on the road, ranking 14th in limiting turnovers.

Detroit, despite being 202nd in points per possession, shows strengths in other areas. They are notably effective on the offensive glass, ranking 52nd in offensive rebounding, and are exceptional from the free-throw line at home, ranking 9th nationally at 82.1%.

Detroit's offensive rebounding and elite home free-throw shooting provide key advantages, suggesting they can keep the game close and potentially control the scoring pace.

• Predictions: Detroit +5.5 and Under 162.5

Defensive struggles are evident for both teams, with Manhattan ranking 340th and Rider 327th in points per possession allowed.

Offensively, Rider faces significant challenges, ranking 357th in points per possession and dead last nationally in three-point shooting at a dismal 26.7%. Manhattan's offense is somewhat more efficient, ranking 247th in points per possession.

Given Rider's profound offensive inefficiencies, particularly their abysmal three-point shooting, Manhattan appears poised to cover the spread despite their own defensive woes.

• Prediction: Manhattan -6

Yale boasts an elite offense, leading the nation in three-point shooting at 41.4% and ranking third in offensive points per possession. However, their home defense is a significant vulnerability, ranking 325th in points per possession allowed.

Dartmouth, conversely, exhibits strength in road three-point shooting, ranking 3rd nationally at 42%. Their road defense is also formidable against three-pointers, ranking 21st by holding opponents to 29.3%.

Dartmouth's exceptional three-point shooting on the road, coupled with Yale's weak home defense, suggests Dartmouth can exploit mismatches and keep the game closer than expected.

• Prediction: Dartmouth +15.5

This matchup features two of the slowest teams in the nation, with Siena ranking 361st and Niagara 362nd in possessions per game.

Offensively, both teams have shown respectable three-point shooting in conference play, with both shooting 37.1%. Niagara maintains this percentage at home. However, Niagara's defense is a weak point, ranking 294th in points per possession allowed and 304th in opponent three-point percentage.

Despite the slow pace, Niagara's defensive struggles, particularly against the three-pointer, could lead to more scoring than their low possession count implies.

• Predictions: Siena -8.5 and Over 128.5

This game presents a clash of paces, with Providence playing at a blistering tempo (5th in possessions) and Villanova operating much slower (312th).

Defensively, both teams struggle to defend the three-point line. Villanova allows a high 38.3% opponent three-point shooting at home (328th), while Providence is similarly vulnerable, allowing 37.7% (343rd). Offensively, Villanova capitalizes from deep at home, ranking 35th with 39.2% three-point shooting.

With both teams struggling to defend the three-point shot and Villanova being proficient from long range at home, this game is set up for a high-scoring affair.

• Prediction: Over 156.5

A high-octane game is expected as both Georgia Southern (20th) and UL Monroe (68th) play at a fast pace.

UL Monroe's defense exhibits significant weaknesses across the board, ranking 344th in points per possession allowed, 285th in opponent three-point percentage, and 349th in opponent two-point percentage.

The combination of two fast-paced offenses and UL Monroe's highly susceptible defense points towards a significant scoring output in this contest.

• Prediction: Over 161.5

Mount St. Mary's struggles with ball security, leading the nation in turnovers per possession on road offense. St. Peter's is adept at exploiting such weaknesses, ranking 20th nationally in generating turnovers and 29th in offensive rebounding.

While St. Peter's commits the 5th most fouls nationally, Mount St. Mary's may not fully capitalize on this, as they rank 328th in free-throw shooting at 67.4%.

St. Peter's ability to force turnovers and crash the offensive glass, combined with Mount St. Mary's offensive struggles and poor free-throw shooting, favors St. Peter's covering the spread and a lower total score.

• Predictions: St. Peter’s -6.5 and Under 138.5

This game features two teams strong on the defensive glass, with Boise State ranking 8th and Grand Canyon 56th in defensive rebounding.

Grand Canyon possesses a formidable interior defense, ranking 44th in opponent two-point shooting percentage. Boise State's three-point shooting shows a notable drop-off on the road (30.7%) compared to their home performance (37%).

With both teams excelling in defensive rebounding and Grand Canyon's strong interior defense, combined with Boise State's road three-point struggles, Grand Canyon is favored and a lower-scoring game is expected.

• Predictions: Grand Canyon -1.5 and Under 140.5

Nevada enters this contest with strong offensive metrics, ranking 17th in three-point shooting at 38.6% and 17th in fewest turnovers per possession.

UNLV, known for its fast pace (49th in possessions), struggles significantly on the defensive glass, ranking 340th in defensive rebounding on the road.

Nevada's efficient offense, particularly from three-point range, coupled with UNLV's fast pace and poor road defensive rebounding, sets the stage for Nevada to cover and for a high-scoring game.

• Predictions: Nevada -7.5 and Over 149.5

Monday, February 16

Both teams are among the nation's weakest defensively, with South Carolina State ranking 348th and Coppin State 358th in points per possession allowed.

Offensively, South Carolina State holds an edge. Coppin State ranks 362nd in points per possession and notably lacks a player averaging over 10 points per game. South Carolina State also demonstrates solid three-point shooting at home, hitting 36.7% from deep.

With Coppin State's significant offensive deficiencies and South Carolina State's home shooting advantage, the Bulldogs are favored to win comfortably.

• Prediction: South Carolina State -4.5 (Handicap: South Carolina State -8.5)

Boston University operates at a slow pace, ranking 320th in possessions, and struggles defensively at home, ranking 342nd in points per possession allowed. While their offense is strong from three-point range (12th nationally at 38.4%), they face a tough challenge.

Colgate's road defense is excellent against the three-pointer, restricting opponents to 30.8% (40th nationally). Offensively, Colgate is efficient inside, ranking 84th in two-point shooting percentage away from home, against a Boston University defense that is 301st in opponent two-point shooting at home.

Colgate's robust three-point defense and effective two-point offense on the road are poised to exploit Boston University's defensive weaknesses at home.

• Prediction: Colgate -1.5 (Handicap: Colgate -6)

This game highlights a battle of turnover-forcing defenses: Grambling ranks ninth in turnovers generated per possession away from home, with Prairie View close behind at 36th overall.

However, offensive ball security differentiates the teams. Prairie View ranks 146th in turnovers per possession, significantly better than Grambling, who ranks 357th. Prairie View also holds an edge in free-throw shooting, converting 75.4% (74th) compared to Grambling's 72.5% (172nd).

Prairie View's superior ball control and better free-throw shooting, despite both teams' defensive pressure, position them for a stronger performance.

• Prediction: Prairie View +2.5 (Handicap: Prairie View -2)

Both teams favor a slow pace, with Maryland-Eastern Shore ranking 330th in possessions. Offensively, neither team is highly efficient, with Norfolk State at 313th and Maryland-Eastern Shore 359th in points per possession.

Maryland-Eastern Shore is elite at generating turnovers at home defensively, ranking sixth nationally. However, this is offset by their own offensive struggles, ranking 365th in turnovers per possession offensively.

The slow pace and offensive inefficiencies of both teams, combined with Maryland-Eastern Shore's tendency to both force and commit many turnovers, suggest a low-scoring affair.

• Prediction: Norfolk State vs. Maryland-Eastern Shore Under 136.5 (Handicapped Total: 131)

North Carolina Central is strong at forcing turnovers at home, ranking 12th nationally. However, their defense is poor overall, ranking 332nd in points per possession allowed.

Morgan State is adept at protecting the ball, ranking second in MEAC conference play for fewest turnovers per game. Defensively, they are solid against the three-pointer, ranking 89th in opponent three-point shooting percentage (32.3%). North Carolina Central struggles significantly with two-point shooting, ranking 345th.

Morgan State's ability to limit turnovers and defend the three, against North Carolina Central's poor overall defense and two-point shooting, gives them an edge.

• Prediction: Morgan State +5.5 (Handicap: Morgan State -1)

Mississippi Valley State faces profound struggles across the board, ranking 364th offensively and 361st defensively in points per possession, and 359th in offensive turnovers per possession.

Alabama State is consistently effective at generating turnovers, ranking 23rd overall and eighth at home. While their three-point shooting is better away from home (33.7% vs. 27.5% at home), their defensive pressure is a key factor.

With Mississippi Valley State's severe inefficiencies on both ends of the court, Alabama State is positioned for a dominant performance and a high-scoring game due to MVSU's defensive struggles.

• Predictions: Alabama State -15.5 and Over 140 (Handicap: Alabama State -20.5 and Total 142.5)

Long Island excels on the offensive glass, ranking 31st nationally, but struggles defensively, ranking 254th in defensive rebounding.

Both teams display strong three-point shooting: Wagner hits 39.5% from deep on the road, while Long Island shoots 37.7% at home. Wagner's defense is also susceptible, ranking 275th in points per possession allowed.

With both teams possessing strong three-point offenses and exhibiting defensive vulnerabilities, particularly Wagner's overall defense and Long Island's defensive rebounding, a higher scoring game is anticipated.

• Prediction: Wagner vs. Long Island Over 134.5 (Handicapped Total: 143.5)

A fast-paced contest is on tap as both Bethune-Cookman (64th) and Jackson State (56th) operate with high possessions per game.

Jackson State's defense is notably weak, ranking 355th in points per possession allowed. However, their offense leads the SWAC in conference scoring at 78.5 points per game and is 150th in points per possession at home.

The combination of two fast-paced teams and Jackson State's high-scoring offense despite their porous defense points to an elevated total score.

• Prediction: Bethune-Cookman vs. Jackson State Over 148.5 (Handicapped Total: 154.5)

South Alabama's defense uniquely forces opponents to take an extremely high percentage of their shots from three-point range, at 64.2% – the highest nationally.

Marshall is well-equipped to capitalize on this, ranking 17th in home three-point shooting at an impressive 40.1%, and plays at a fast tempo. Defensively, Marshall's interior defense is strong, ranking 78th in opponent two-point shooting and 23rd in blocked shot percentage.

Marshall's ability to hit threes at home and their strong interior defense against South Alabama's defensive strategy suggests a favorable outcome for Marshall and potentially a lower total score.

• Predictions: Marshall -3.5 and Under 150.5 (Handicap: Marshall -6.5 and Total 142.5)

Alabama A&M struggles with offensive efficiency, ranking 326th in two-point shooting and 292nd in offensive rebounding.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff, despite ranking 325th in turnovers per possession, compensates with strong shooting. They shoot 34.1% from three-point range and are excellent from the free-throw line, ranking 62nd nationally at 75.8%. Alabama A&M's defense is also prone to fouling, ranking 278th in free-throw attempts allowed per opponent field goal attempt.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff's superior shooting, especially from the free-throw line, combined with Alabama A&M's offensive struggles and propensity to foul, suggests a strong performance for the Golden Lions and a higher total.

• Predictions: Arkansas-Pine Bluff +3.5 and Over 143.5 (Handicap: Arkansas-Pine Bluff -2.5 and Total 146.5)

This matchup features two teams that play at a deliberate pace, with Stony Brook ranking 256th and Drexel 335th in possessions.

Both teams struggle with two-point shooting, Drexel at 265th and Stony Brook at 296th. Stony Brook, however, holds advantages in free-throw shooting (71% vs. Drexel's 65.6%) and a lower turnover rate. Drexel also ranks 272nd in overall points per possession, indicating offensive inefficiency.

With both teams playing slowly and struggling offensively, especially with two-point shooting, a low-scoring game is highly anticipated.

• Prediction: Drexel vs. Stony Brook Under 133.5 (Handicapped Total: 126.5)

This game promises a flurry of turnovers, as Tarleton State leads the country in turnovers generated defensively, and Abilene Christian ranks third. Both teams also exhibit high offensive turnover rates.

Tarleton State plays at a fast tempo (47th in possessions) and leads the nation in the percentage of field goal attempts that are two-point shots. Abilene Christian's defense is notably weak, ranking 287th in opponent two-point shooting and last in opponent three-point shooting at 39.3%.

The high turnover rates, fast pace, and Abilene Christian's profoundly weak defense against both two and three-pointers suggest a high-scoring game favoring Tarleton State.

• Predictions: Tarleton State -1.5 and Over 135.5 (Handicap: Tarleton State -6.5 and Total 140.5)

This matchup features two teams with strong defenses and slower paces. Stephen F. Austin ranks ninth in points per possession allowed on the road. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is also solid defensively, ranking 64th and 24th in generating turnovers.

Both teams struggle from the free-throw line, with Texas A&M-Corpus Christi shooting 66.9% and Stephen F. Austin at 67.5%.

With two defensively sound teams playing at a slower pace and exhibiting poor free-throw shooting, a lower-scoring game is anticipated.

• Prediction: Stephen F. Austin vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Under 139 (Handicapped Total: 135)

Both the Rattlers and the Braves play at a solid pace. Alcorn State's defense is particularly weak, ranking 354th in points per possession allowed.

Offensively, Alcorn State demonstrates proficiency from beyond the arc, shooting 35.4% from three-point range, which ranks 97th nationally.

With Alcorn State's notably poor defense and their respectable three-point shooting, combined with a solid game pace, a higher total score is expected.

• Prediction: Florida A&M vs. Alcorn State Over 138.5 (Handicapped Total: 145.5)

Saturday, February 28

Virginia's defense is elite, particularly in the interior. They rank fifth nationally in opponent two-point shooting percentage and second in shot block percentage. The Cavaliers also excel in offensive rebounding.

Duke also boasts a strong defense, ranking high in defensive points per possession allowed.

Virginia's exceptional interior defense and offensive rebounding prowess suggest they can keep the game competitive against Duke, making them a favorable pick against the spread.

• Prediction: Virginia +10.5 (Handicap: Virginia +7.5)

Seton Hall struggles with shooting efficiency, exhibiting low two-point and three-point percentages. However, they are strong on the offensive glass and possess a high ranking in defensive points per possession allowed on the road.

Connecticut's free-throw shooting percentage is a noted factor in this matchup.

Despite their shooting woes, Seton Hall's strong offensive rebounding and robust road defense indicate they can hold their own against Connecticut, making them a good choice against the large spread.

• Prediction: Seton Hall +14.5 (Handicap: Seton Hall +11.5)

Rhode Island is adept at generating defensive turnovers. While their opponent three-point shooting percentage is higher overall, it significantly improves when they play at home.

St. Joseph's struggles from beyond the arc, possessing a low three-point shooting percentage. Both teams exhibit notable home/road disparities in their free-throw performance.

Rhode Island's home defensive improvements, especially against the three-pointer, combined with St. Joseph's offensive struggles from deep, give Rhode Island an advantage to cover the spread.

• Prediction: Rhode Island -3.5 (Handicap: Rhode Island -6)

Central Connecticut adheres to a slow pace and maintains moderate defensive efficiency in points per possession allowed. They have consistently held opponents to 70 points or fewer in recent games.

St. Francis PA struggles offensively with a low points per possession but is effective at generating turnovers away from home.

The slow pace of Central Connecticut, their recent defensive trend of limiting scoring, and St. Francis PA's offensive inefficiency all point towards a low-scoring game.

• Prediction: St. Francis PA vs. Central Connecticut Under 155.5 (Handicapped Total: 145.5)

Middle Tennessee exhibits moderate efficiency on both offense and defense in terms of points per possession.

New Mexico State plays at a slower pace and demonstrates improved defensive performance away from home. Middle Tennessee is hampered by a low free-throw shooting percentage.

New Mexico State's slower pace and strong road defense, coupled with Middle Tennessee's struggles from the free-throw line, suggest a tighter contest and a lower total score.

• Predictions: New Mexico State +5.5 and Under 146.5 (Handicap: New Mexico State +1.5 and Total 139.5)

Florida Gulf Coast shows defensive vulnerabilities, with a higher points per possession allowed compared to Stetson.

Stetson, on the other hand, exhibits a significantly higher three-point shooting percentage when playing at home. Turnover rates for both teams are also a factor.

With Stetson's enhanced three-point shooting at home and Florida Gulf Coast's defensive issues, a high-scoring game is expected, favoring Florida Gulf Coast to cover.

• Predictions: Florida Gulf Coast -2 and Over 152 (Handicap: Florida Gulf Coast -5.5 and Total 155.5)

Cincinnati boasts a strong defense, ranking high in defensive points per possession allowed, but struggles significantly on offense. Their free-throw shooting percentage is also notably low.

Oklahoma State plays at a fast pace, effectively limits turnovers away from home, and maintains a moderate offensive points per possession.

Oklahoma State's ability to protect the ball on the road and Cincinnati's offensive struggles, particularly from the free-throw line, suggest Oklahoma State can keep this game close against the spread.

• Prediction: Oklahoma State +9.5 (Handicap: Oklahoma State +5.5)

Both New Mexico and San Diego State are highly effective at generating turnovers on defense.

New Mexico excels at limiting opponent three-point shooting. San Diego State also maintains a strong defensive presence, evidenced by a low points per possession allowed.

With two defensively potent teams that excel at forcing turnovers and limiting opponent shooting, particularly from three-point range, a low-scoring game is expected.

• Prediction: San Diego State vs. New Mexico Under 149.5 (Handicapped Total: 143.5)

Arizona operates at a fast pace and boasts a highly efficient offense, ranking high in offensive points per possession. Kansas also maintains a moderate offensive points per possession.

Both teams are adept at maintaining possession, benefiting from opponents who exhibit low turnover forcing rates.

The combination of Arizona's fast pace and highly efficient offense, alongside both teams' ability to limit turnovers, points towards a high-scoring contest.

• Prediction: Kansas vs. Arizona Over 144.5 (Handicapped Total: 152.5)

Mississippi Valley State consistently ranks among the nation's weakest teams across key metrics, including rebound percentage, offensive points per possession, and defensive points per possession.

Arkansas Pine Bluff, conversely, exhibits strong offensive points per possession at home and a high three-point shooting percentage in their home arena.

With Mississippi Valley State's severe struggles on both ends of the court, Arkansas Pine Bluff is poised for a commanding victory at home.

• Prediction: Arkansas Pine Bluff -14 (Handicap: Arkansas Pine Bluff -19)

Kansas City struggles with efficiency on both offense and defense, ranking low in points per possession for both categories.

Oral Roberts also has a high defensive points per possession allowed and a low turnover generation rate, indicating defensive struggles.

With both teams showing significant offensive and defensive inefficiencies, a competitive, lower-scoring game is expected, favoring Kansas City against the spread.

• Predictions: Kansas City +4.5 and Under 146.5 (Handicap: Kansas City -1.5 and Total 140.5)

North Carolina boasts a strong defensive rebound percentage and is excellent at limiting turnovers.

Virginia Tech, however, allows a high rate of offensive rebounds. Additionally, Virginia Tech's opponent two-point shooting percentage and their own away-from-home three-point percentage are higher than at home, indicating defensive and potentially offensive struggles on the road.

North Carolina's dominance on the defensive glass and ball security, combined with Virginia Tech's vulnerability to offensive rebounds and road shooting issues, suggest a comfortable win for North Carolina and a higher total.

• Predictions: North Carolina -6.5 and Over 148.5 (Handicap: North Carolina -10.5 and Total 152.5)

Florida is exceptional on the glass at home, leading the nation in home rebound percentage. Their home three-point shooting percentage is low, and their turnover rate is moderate.

Arkansas boasts a highly efficient offense, ranking high in points per possession and three-point shooting percentage, and commits the fewest turnovers per possession nationally.

Despite Florida's home rebounding advantage, Arkansas's elite offensive efficiency and unparalleled ball security position them to perform well against the spread.

• Prediction: Arkansas +10.5 (Handicap: Arkansas +7)

Grand Canyon displays strong defensive metrics, ranking high in defensive points per possession allowed and in limiting opponent two-point shooting, especially away from home.

Utah State is equally robust, ranking high in offensive two-point shooting percentage, turnover generation, and defensive points per possession allowed. Both teams maintain a moderate pace of play.

With two defensively strong teams that limit easy scores and excel in various defensive metrics, coupled with a moderate pace, a lower-scoring game is highly anticipated.

• Prediction: Grand Canyon vs. Utah State Under 149.5 (Handicapped Total: 142.5)