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Capital Economics Predicts Prolonged Interest Rate Hold for New Zealand Amidst Rising Inflation

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Capital Economics has suggested that inflationary pressures in New Zealand are more contained than they appear, with core inflation remaining stable despite a slight increase in headline figures.In the last quarter, New Zealand's consumer prices rose by 0.6 percent, exceeding the anticipated 0.5 percent increase.Abhijit Surya, a senior APAC economist at Capital Economics, stated that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to maintain its current interest rates. Surya indicated that despite a further increase in headline inflation during Q4, underlying inflation remains controlled. He projects that the RBNZ will keep rates on hold for an extended period, contrasting with market expectations of policy tightening later in the year.Surya further commented that New Zealand's prices are "in check" and suggested that the RBNZ might not increase rates until the following year.New Zealand's headline inflation increased from 3 percent to 3.1 percent last year. This marked the first time in six quarters that inflation surpassed the RBNZ's 2-3 percent target band, differing from the RBNZ's earlier projection for a decrease to 2.7 percent.