Japan's export growth in December 2025 increased by 5.1% year-on-year, missing analysts' estimates. Reuters-polled analysts had predicted growth would remain at 6.1%.
Shipments to the U.S. declined by 11.1% in December, following an 8.8% rise in November. The November increase was the first for U.S. exports since March 2025. Japanese exports had previously fallen in mid-2025 due to U.S. tariff concerns but rebounded after a trade agreement reduced duties to 15%.
Exports to mainland China, Japan's largest trading partner, rose by 5.6%. Shipments to Hong Kong surged by 31.1% compared to the same period last year, and exports to the broader Asia region saw a 10.2% gain.
Imports in December increased by 5.1% year-on-year, a sharp rise from November's 1.3% and surpassing Reuters' estimates of 3.6%.
For the full year 2025, Japan's exports grew by 3.1%, which is a slower rate compared to the 6.2% increase in 2024. Shipments to mainland China and the U.S. decreased by 0.4% and 4.1% respectively. Exports to Hong Kong and Taiwan climbed by 17.8% and 15.1% over the year, partially offsetting the declines.
Stefan Angrick, head of Japan at Moody's Analytics, attributed the overall export rise in 2025 partly to front-loading of U.S. shipments ahead of tariff increases, an increase in electronics and machinery due to an artificial intelligence boom, and a weak yen.
Angrick warned that the outlook carries risks, citing higher U.S. import levies and international competition as factors impacting industrial production and export volumes. He also noted trade threats from China as an additional concern.
Relations between Tokyo and Beijing have been strained since November 2025, following comments by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding potential Japanese military intervention if China attempted to take Taiwan by force. China subsequently suspended seafood imports from Japan and, early this year, announced restrictions on the export of dual-use goods to Japan.
The release of this trade data precedes snap elections in Japan, called by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for February 8, with the Lower House set for dissolution. Analysts suggest a victory for Takaichi could allow her to advance her fiscal agenda and maintain a weak yen, which supports Japan's export-oriented economy.
Japanese markets have responded to the election announcement with a period known as the "Takaichi trade," characterized by generally rising stocks and a consistently weak yen.