Virginia is projected to experience a winter storm this weekend. This weather event is characterized by a broad sweep of moisture interacting with Arctic air expanding southward across much of the central and eastern U.S., making it a widespread rather than localized event.
While winter weather impacts are expected across a large portion of the central and eastern U.S., the exact form of precipitation (snow, sleet, freezing rain) for the Southwest and Southside Virginia region remains somewhat uncertain. Current projections indicate a high probability for much of the region to receive 6 or more inches of snow. A significant snowfall of 12 inches or more remains a possibility, particularly if the amount of sleet or ice is minimal.
The storm's dynamics represent an "overrunning" setup, where moisture is lifted northward into Arctic air. This differs from "Miller A" storms, which involve surface low-pressure systems tracking along the East Coast. Overrunning setups increase the likelihood of mild air aloft, which introduces the potential for sleet or freezing rain to mix with or change snow. A severe ice storm is anticipated across parts of the Deep South and Carolinas from this system.
For the southern half of Virginia, there is a possibility that the later hours of the storm on Sunday could include mixed precipitation, such as sleet (bouncy ice pellets) or freezing rain (liquid rain freezing on contact with cold surfaces). The presence of sleet or freezing rain would reduce potential snow totals; sleet yields less accumulation than snow, and freezing rain creates a glaze without contributing to snowfall totals. Determining the extent and duration of mixed precipitation will be critical.
Regional variations are possible, with sleet and freezing rain potentially impacting the Southwest corner and Southside Virginia more extensively than areas further north, leading to disparities in snowfall across the region. Temperatures are forecast to be in the teens and 20s throughout the event, ensuring that all precipitation will accumulate and create hazardous roadway conditions.
The storm has the potential to be a "big one," defined as 12 or more inches of snow across at least 50 percent of the Cardinal News coverage area. Such events occur approximately twice a decade, with the last one recorded in December 2018. However, the challenges posed by potential mixing could influence whether this storm achieves that threshold. Further updates are expected by Friday evening.