Public Opinion Shifts in Australia and the United States

Recent opinion polls in Australia and the United States have measured public sentiment on domestic politics, leadership, and international events, including the conflict in Iran. The data shows shifts in party support and leader approval in both countries, alongside public views on potential military deployments and economic concerns.

Australian Federal Polling

Three national polls conducted in late March 2026 show the Australian Labor Party maintaining a lead in two-party preferred estimates, though primary votes for major parties have shifted.

Labor maintains a two-party preferred lead across all major polls, though primary support for the major traditional parties has eroded.

• Newspoll (March 23-26): Labor's primary vote was 31%, the Coalition's was 21%, One Nation's was 26%, and the Greens' was 12%. Based on 2025 election preference flows, Labor was estimated to lead the Coalition 54% to 46%. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's net approval was -18, while Opposition Leader Angus Taylor's was -7.
• Redbridge (March 23-27): Labor's primary vote was 32%, the Coalition's was 17%, One Nation's was 29%, and the Greens' was 13%. Based on respondent preferences, Labor led both the Coalition and One Nation 53% to 47%. Albanese's net favourability was -17, and Taylor's was -3.
• Fox & Hedgehog (March 24-25): Labor's primary vote was 30%, the Coalition's was 23%, and One Nation's was 23%. Based on respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition 51% to 49% and led One Nation 56% to 44%. Albanese's net approval was -19, and Taylor's was 0.

A separate national Morgan poll from January 12-18 showed Labor leading 53.5% to 46.5% by respondent preferences.

South Australian Election Results

With 88% of votes counted from the March 21 state election, the ABC reported the following seat projections out of 47:

• Labor: 34 seats
• Liberals: 5 seats
• One Nation: 2 seats
• Independents: 4 seats
• Two seats remain uncalled.

Statewide primary votes were Labor 37.6%, One Nation 22.8%, Liberals 18.9%, and Greens 10.4%. The Liberal Party secured opposition status with more seats than One Nation despite receiving a lower statewide primary vote.

Australian Public Opinion on International Issues

Polls measured Australian views on the Iran conflict and potential military involvement.

• A Newspoll found 72% of respondents disapproved of US military action against Iran, with 63% opposed to Australia sending naval vessels to the Strait of Hormuz.
• A Resolve Political Monitor survey in April 2026 found 42% of respondents supported Australian troops participating in a multinational force to safeguard the Strait of Hormuz after the war ends, while 31% were opposed and 27% were unsure.
• Defence Minister Richard Marles stated Australia would join a multinational effort led by France and the United Kingdom to safeguard the Strait of Hormuz when the war ends, but said it was too early to specify Australia's contribution.

Australian Views on US Leadership

Australian attitudes toward U.S. President Donald Trump have become more negative, according to polling.

• The April 2026 Resolve survey found 62% of Australian respondents viewed Trump negatively, with a net favourability rating of -44%. This was a decline from a -41% net rating in February 2026.
• 61% said Trump's return to office was bad for Australia, an increase from 53% in July 2025.
• A Redbridge poll from March found Donald Trump's net favourability in Australia was -55.

Australian Domestic Issue Polling

Polls also measured public opinion on several domestic matters.

• On the fuel crisis, a Redbridge poll found 61% of respondents attributed responsibility for rising petrol prices more to Donald Trump than to Anthony Albanese. A Fox & Hedgehog poll indicated 55% blamed the Iran war for rising fuel prices.
• The Fox & Hedgehog poll reported 57% of respondents rated the federal government's handling of the fuel crisis as poor.
• A Morgan SMS poll in January found 72% support for January 26 being known as "Australia Day" rather than "Invasion Day," and 61% believed the date should not be moved.
• A national Resolve poll showed 61% support for a royal commission following the Bondi incident, and 66% support for toughening gun laws.

United States Political Polling

Polls show declining approval ratings for President Donald Trump and measures of voter sentiment ahead of the November midterm elections.

• Nate Silver's aggregate of US national polls showed President Trump's net approval rating reached a low of -16.6 in late March. By early April, following a ceasefire announcement in Iran, the rating was reported at -16.9, with 56.5% disapproving and 39.5% approving.
• On specific issues, Trump's net approval in early April stood at -10.7 for immigration, -21.8 for the economy, -24.2 for trade, and -33.6 for inflation.
• Public sentiment on the Iran war showed net opposition at -15.1 points, with 53.8% opposed and 38.7% in support, according to polling conducted before a ceasefire announcement.

US Economic and Election Context

• The benchmark US S&P 500 stock market index lost 8.3% from its peak on February 25 to late March, preceding the Iran war. Following the ceasefire announcement, the index increased by 2.5% in a session and was reported to be 2.3% below its pre-war peak by early April.
• The US unemployment rate in March was 4.3%. The employment population ratio was 59.2%, a decline from 59.9% in February 2025.
• In generic ballot polls for the upcoming midterm elections, Democrats led Republicans by a margin of 5.5 points (47.9% to 42.4%) in early April.
• In a special election runoff for Georgia’s 14th federal seat, the Republican candidate won by 55.9% to 44.1%, a 25-point decrease from the 2024 presidential margin in that district.
• Analysis of current polling suggests Democrats are likely to gain control of the House of Representatives if they maintain their popular vote margin, but are not projected to win a majority in the Senate.