The 2026 NFL Draft Quarterback Debate: Mendoza vs. Simpson

A consensus of expert rankings and analyst evaluations points to a two-quarterback tier at the top of the 2026 NFL Draft class, with Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson generating significant discussion. The broader quarterback talent pool for the 2026 and 2027 drafts is viewed as stronger than the class for the 2025 draft.

Top Prospect Rankings

An updated consensus draft board, which aggregates rankings from various experts, lists Fernando Mendoza as the top quarterback prospect (QB1) for the 2026 class. Ty Simpson is ranked as the second quarterback (QB2) and 26th overall on that board, a position that represents a decline from a No. 5 overall ranking in November.

Fernando Mendoza (Indiana): The 2025 Heisman Trophy winner led Indiana to an undefeated season and a national championship. He completed 72% of his passes for 3,535 yards, with 41 touchdowns and six interceptions. He stands 6-foot-5 and has 34 career starts across Cal and Indiana.

Ty Simpson (Alabama): In his first year as a starter, Simpson completed 64.5% of his passes for 3,567 yards, with 28 touchdowns and five interceptions, adding 93 rushing yards. He stands 6-foot-1, weighs 211 pounds, and has 15 career starts.

Analyst Perspectives

ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky has stated a preference for Ty Simpson as the top quarterback in the class, arguing that Simpson demonstrated a higher capacity for executing complex, NFL-style throws and had to "do more with less" to elevate his Alabama team. Orlovsky noted that while both quarterbacks are comparable on downfield throws, Simpson showed more consistency in handling pressure.

Conversely, other evaluations and mock drafts, including those from CBS Sports, consistently project Fernando Mendoza as the first overall pick. Former NFL general manager Mike Tannenbaum has indicated that some NFL teams internally rank Simpson higher than Mendoza, though the Las Vegas Raiders, who hold the first overall pick, have been linked to Mendoza.

Factors in Evaluation

Discussions surrounding the two prospects frequently cite several factors:

• Experience: Simpson's 15 career starts are frequently contrasted with Mendoza's 34.
• Physical Profile: Simpson's height of 6-foot-1 is noted as being below the traditional prototype for NFL quarterbacks, while Mendoza's 6-foot-5 frame is viewed as ideal.
• Team Context: Analysts debate the impact of each player's supporting cast, with some noting Mendoza played on a national championship team.

Broader Draft Context

The 2025 NFL quarterback draft class is generally perceived by league evaluators as having limited high-end talent. In contrast, the classes projected for 2026 and 2027 are anticipated to be stronger and deeper.

These future classes feature prospects such as Arch Manning (Texas), Dante Moore (Oregon), and CJ Carr (Notre Dame), among others. This projected strength may influence long-term team strategies at the quarterback position.

The first round of the 2026 NFL Draft is scheduled for April 23 in Pittsburgh. Draft-eligible underclassmen have until January 23 to declare.