Back
Politics

One Nation Surges in Australian Polls and Elections; Coalition Struggles with Internal Division and Voter Defection

Generated on: Last updated: 268 sources
View source

One Nation Surge Reshapes Australian Politics

"The party has achieved historic firsts, including winning federal and state lower house seats, while the Coalition has faced internal division over strategy and a significant decline in primary vote support."

A sustained surge in support for the Pauline Hanson-led One Nation party is reshaping the Australian political landscape, as evidenced by a series of state election results, byelections, and opinion polls.

One Nation's Electoral Rise

Historic Wins in South Australia

In the March 2026 South Australian state election, One Nation secured 22% of the primary vote, placing it ahead of the Liberal Party (19%) and behind the Labor Party (38%). This performance resulted in the party winning at least two lower house seats (Ngadjuri and Hammond) and three upper house seats, marking its first lower house victories outside Queensland. The Labor Party, led by Premier Peter Malinauskas, was re-elected with a landslide majority.

Federal Lower House Victory in Farrer

On May 9, 2026, One Nation candidate David Farley won the federal seat of Farrer in a byelection, marking the party's first victory in the House of Representatives. The seat had been held by the Coalition (Liberal or National parties) since its creation in 1949. The byelection was triggered by the resignation of former Liberal MP Sussan Ley. One Nation secured a primary vote of nearly 40%, while the combined Liberal and National vote fell to approximately 20%. The Coalition had directed its preferences to One Nation over independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe.

Nepean By-election

In the May 2026 Nepean state by-election in Victoria, the Liberal Party retained the seat, but One Nation secured 25% of the primary vote, representing a significant increase from the previous election.

Polling Data

Multiple national polls conducted through mid-2026 indicate a fundamental shift in voter support.

  • One Nation's primary vote has risen from 6.4% at the 2025 federal election to between 22% and 31% in various polls, including those by Newspoll, Resolve Political Monitor, and Guardian Essential.
  • Several polls have shown One Nation leading both Labor and the Coalition on primary vote, with some surveys placing One Nation as the most popular party in the country.
  • Polling indicates One Nation has increased its support across all demographic groups, including women, younger voters, and university-educated voters, moving beyond its traditional base of older, rural, male voters.
  • The Resolve Political Monitor for April recorded One Nation's primary vote at 22%, a two-point decrease from the previous month, which some attributed to negative press coverage.

Coalition's Internal Response

Strategic Division and Reactions

"The Coalition's response to One Nation's rise has been characterized by internal division."

The Coalition's response to One Nation's rise has been characterized by internal division.

  • Some Liberal MPs, including Andrew Hastie and James Paterson, have urged the party to distance itself from One Nation and reject preference deals.
  • Other figures, including Liberal Party president Tony Abbott and the South Australian Liberal branch, have supported preference swaps with One Nation to defeat Labor.
  • Federal Opposition Leader Angus Taylor has stated the party is open to preference deals but has ruled out formal seat-sharing agreements.
  • In South Australia, the Liberal party preference deal with One Nation was criticized by some within the party as an "act of war" that contributed to Labor's landslide victory.

Record-Low Polling

The Coalition experienced record-low primary vote polling, with the Liberal Party's primary vote falling to between 17% and 23% in several polls. In South Australia, the Liberal Party's primary vote was 19%, its lowest recorded result in the state.

Labor's Position and Response

The Labor Party has seen its primary vote decline in some states, such as Victoria, where it fell to 23% in one poll, but has generally held or slightly increased its support in national polls. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has framed One Nation's rise as a product of voter frustration with the economy, which he has described as "not working for people." The government has announced plans to reduce net overseas migration to 225,000 per year and has pointed to One Nation's voting record on workers' rights as a key point of differentiation.

Immigration and Multiculturalism Debate

One Nation's Policies

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has proposed a significant reduction in immigration to 130,000-160,000 per year, advocating for an eight-year waiting period for citizenship and the deportation of visa overstayers. She has argued that multiculturalism is a "failed policy" and called for Australia to become a "monocultural" society while remaining multiracial.

Coalition and Labor Positions

Opposition Leader Angus Taylor initially avoided explicitly stating whether the Coalition supports multiculturalism, later clarifying that he supports a "version of multiculturalism." The Coalition has proposed a "values test" for migrants. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has rejected the concept of monoculturalism, stating that Australia was built on diversity and multiculturalism.

One Nation's Growing Profile and Controversies

Media Relations and Internal Conflicts

One Nation's relationship with the media has been strained. In May 2026, party leader Pauline Hanson's media adviser told a journalist to "shut up," and Senator Hanson was recorded referring to a journalist as a "nasty bitch." Hanson has since stated she would ban Guardian Australia from future events.

A disagreement between Hanson and her chief of staff James Ashby became public when Ashby ejected an ABC news crew from a campaign event in Albury, a decision Hanson questioned.

Employment of Staff

"One Nation faced criticism from Coalition MPs for rehiring Sean Black, who was convicted of rape in 2018, as a campaign director."

One Nation faced criticism from Coalition MPs for rehiring Sean Black, who was convicted of rape in 2018, as a campaign director. Following public scrutiny, Hanson announced Black had been dismissed, stating he had "done his time." Former One Nation candidates later alleged that party leadership dismissed their internal concerns about Black's employment.

Fundraising

One Nation's "Fire the Liar" fundraising campaign raised over $3 million, according to the party. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese questioned the legitimacy of the fundraising, prompting the party to release an audit which it stated verified the donations. The party has also been publicly linked to mining billionaire Gina Rinehart, who has donated a private plane and provided policy advice, a relationship Hanson has acknowledged and defended.

Upcoming Elections

The next federal election is scheduled for 2028. The Victorian state election is scheduled for November 2026, where recent polls show Labor and the Coalition tied on primary vote (26% each) with One Nation at 24%. A date for the next New South Wales state election has been set for March 2027.