The Rise of One Nation: Reshaping Australian Politics in 2026

"This is just the start." — Pauline Hanson, following the South Australian state election.

In a series of interconnected developments spanning early to mid-2026, the Pauline Hanson-led One Nation party has experienced a significant and sustained increase in electoral support, reshaping Australia's political landscape.

This rise was first demonstrated in the South Australian state election on March 21, 2026, where One Nation secured approximately 22% of the primary vote—surpassing the Liberal Party and winning its first lower house seats outside Queensland.

The momentum continued with the party's historic victory in the federal seat of Farrer on May 9, 2026, marking its first-ever win in a House of Representatives lower house seat. Concurrently, national opinion polls have consistently placed One Nation's primary vote in the low-to-mid 20s, often ahead of the Coalition.

These gains have occurred against a backdrop of economic pressures, including a global oil shock and rising cost of living, internal turmoil within the Liberal and National parties, and specific controversies surrounding One Nation's candidate vetting and employment practices. The major parties have responded with varied strategies, including preference deals, public criticism, and internal reviews, as the Australian political system adjusts to the emergence of a powerful third force.

Section 1: The South Australian State Election (March 21, 2026)

Electoral Outcome

The South Australian Labor Party, led by Premier Peter Malinauskas, secured a second term in government, projected to win at least 32-34 of the 47 seats in the House of Assembly. This victory was described by analysts as a landslide, with Labor's primary vote reaching approximately 38%, a minor decrease from 2022.

One Nation achieved a significant electoral breakthrough. The party's statewide primary vote reached approximately 22%, an increase from 2.6% in the 2022 state election. This result placed One Nation ahead of the Liberal Party, which recorded a primary vote of approximately 19%, a decline of nearly 17% from the previous election.

One Nation won at least two lower house seats, its first such victories outside Queensland. David Paton, Deputy Mayor of the Adelaide Plains Council, was projected to win the seat of Ngadjuri. Robert Roylance secured the seat of Hammond. The party also led in the seats of MacKillop and Narungga. In the Legislative Council, former federal Liberal senator Cory Bernardi was expected to secure one of two or three projected One Nation seats.

Key Factors and Voter Sentiment

"It's a protest against the major parties—they've forgotten people like us." — A One Nation voter, interviewed by media outlets.

• Cost of Living: Voters cited cost-of-living pressures, including housing affordability, as a primary factor influencing their decision to vote for One Nation.
• Protest Vote: A significant portion of One Nation supporters indicated their vote was a "protest" against the major parties. A YouGov poll found that a majority of One Nation supporters cast their ballots as a form of protest rather than based on specific policy alignment.
• Liberal Decline: The Liberal Party's poor performance was attributed to a fractured conservative vote, four different state leaders in four years, and internal ideological conflicts between conservative and moderate factions.
• Preference Deals: The South Australian Liberal Party, led by Ashton Hurn, decided to preference One Nation over Labor on its how-to-vote cards. Analysts stated this decision contributed to One Nation's seat victories. One Nation did not reciprocate by preferencing the Liberals.

Reactions

• Premier Peter Malinauskas (Labor) acknowledged One Nation's result, calling for a "kinder and more inclusive political approach." He expressed a willingness to work with all MPs who prioritize the state's interests.
• Ashton Hurn (Liberal Leader) acknowledged the "difficult result" and accepted responsibility, pledging a thorough review of the party's platform and campaign.
• Pauline Hanson (One Nation Leader) described the results as "just the start" of a broader movement and stated One Nation MPs would pose a challenge for the government.
• Liberal Senator Andrew McLachlan publicly stated the Liberal Party "should always preference One Nation last."

Section 2: The Farrer Federal By-election (May 9, 2026)

Electoral Outcome

One Nation candidate David Farley won the federal seat of Farrer in southwestern New South Wales, marking the party's first-ever victory in a House of Representatives lower house seat. The seat had been held by the Coalition (Liberal or National parties) continuously since its creation in 1949.

The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Liberal leader Sussan Ley. The Coalition's combined primary vote fell to just over 20%, with the Liberal candidate receiving 12.4% of first-preference votes. One Nation secured a majority of the primary vote, with strong results in inland towns such as Deniliquin, Finley, and Hay.

Campaign Dynamics

• Preference Flow: The Liberal and National parties directed their preferences to One Nation ahead of independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe, whom they labeled a "teal" candidate. Labor did not field a candidate.
• Key Issues: Voters cited water management, cost of living, healthcare access, and a perceived neglect of regional areas by major parties as primary concerns.
• Voter Turnout: Nearly 50,000 voters (40% of those enrolled) cast their ballots before polling day.

Reactions

"This result shows the Liberal Party needs to change or die." — Sussan Ley, former MP for Farrer.

• Pauline Hanson (One Nation Leader) stated the result "vindicated" her party and proved it was not a temporary phenomenon. She criticized major parties for not addressing the needs of Australians.
• Angus Taylor (Opposition Leader) attributed the loss to broader challenges facing the Coalition and defended the preference decision.
• Treasurer Jim Chalmers (Labor) called the result a "bloodbath" for the Coalition.

Section 3: National Polling and Strategic Responses

One Nation's Sustained Rise

National opinion polls from various firms (Guardian Essential, Resolve, Newspoll, YouGov, DemosAU) consistently showed One Nation's primary vote in the low-to-mid 20s throughout the first half of 2026. Several polls indicated One Nation had edged ahead of the Coalition for the first time.

Key polling data included:

An ANUpoll study of 3,662 adults suggested One Nation's support reflected a durable structural realignment rather than a temporary protest, characterized by low hope, high financial stress, and populist orientation.

Leader approval ratings told a striking story: A Guardian Essential poll found 52% of respondents approved of Pauline Hanson's leadership, compared to 41% for Anthony Albanese and 34% for Angus Taylor.

Voter Demographics

Analysis of polling data indicated One Nation's support base is concentrated among:

• Age: Voters over 50 and Generation X.
• Education: Individuals without a university degree.
• Geography: Rural and outer suburban areas, although support was expanding.
• Income: Low-income earners, though also notable support among top earners.
• Gender: Men were slightly more likely to support One Nation than women.
• Former Voters: A significant portion of support came from former Coalition voters (36% according to one poll), with smaller shifts from Labor (10%) and Greens (8%) voters.

Responses from Major Parties

• Labor Party: PM Anthony Albanese cautioned against a return to a "White Australia" era, defended multiculturalism, and criticized One Nation's opposition to policies on workers' rights, housing, and wages. The party developed strategies focusing on economic agendas, wages, and workers' rights.
• Coalition (Liberal-National): The Coalition's response was mixed. Federal leaders developed a strategy to counter One Nation by highlighting its alleged policy failures and high turnover of MPs. However, state branches pursued preference deals with One Nation in South Australia and Farrer. Deputy Liberal leader Jane Hume declined to rule out a future coalition with One Nation.
• Crossbench: Former Coalition MP Barnaby Joyce, who defected to One Nation, stated the party's goal was to form government and ruled out a formal coalition with the Liberals.
• Third Parties: The left-wing advocacy group GetUp spent $600,000 on an advertising campaign against One Nation in the Farrer by-election.

Section 4: Key Controversies

Employment of Sean Black

In April 2026, it was reported that One Nation employed Sean Black, a man convicted of rape in 2018, as a campaign director at its Brisbane headquarters. Liberal Senator James Paterson publicly criticized the decision, questioning the party's credibility on law and order issues.

Following media scrutiny and political criticism, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson announced on April 13 that Black had been dismissed. Hanson stated she did not condone his behavior but noted he had "done his time."

Two former One Nation candidates, Robert Stuckey and Leigh Burns, subsequently stated they had raised concerns about Black's employment with party leadership but were dismissed. One Nation declined interview requests on the matter.

Comments on Islam and Immigration

One Nation officials made a series of controversial statements:

• Pauline Hanson questioned the existence of "good" Muslims and later issued a partial apology. She faced widespread political criticism, including from Nationals Senator Matt Canavan who called the remarks "divisive, inflammatory [and] un-Australian."
• Bianca Colecchia (Victorian state secretary) filmed a video in Melbourne stating the city "doesn't look like a Western nation at all" and advocated limiting migrants from "non-culturally cohesive countries."
• Cory Bernardi (SA upper house candidate) reaffirmed his 2012 comments linking gay marriage to bestiality and endorsed Hanson's statements on Muslims.

Other Incidents

• Preference Deal Controversy: The Coalition's decision to preference One Nation in Farrer was criticized by Liberals favoring a more centrist approach.
• Polling Booth Incident: Liberal Senator James Paterson filmed an altercation with a One Nation volunteer in Albury, which Paterson described as an assault.
• Campaign Finance: One Nation's $1,980 in Meta advertising spending in South Australia was dwarfed by Labor ($81,000) and Liberal ($67,000) accounts.

Section 5: Looking Ahead

The rise of One Nation has introduced new dynamics to Australian electoral politics. Upcoming electoral tests include:

• Victorian State Election (November 28, 2026): Polls indicate One Nation's primary vote at 21% to 11%.
• Farrer By-election Implications: The result is seen as a potential precursor to further challenges for the Coalition in regional seats.
• Nepean By-election (May 2, 2026): The Liberal Party retained the seat, but One Nation secured 25% of the primary vote.

"This is not a temporary phenomenon. The question now is whether the major parties can adapt." — Political analyst, summarizing the structural realignment.

Analysts suggest that the sustainability of One Nation's support, its ability to translate polling into widespread lower house victories, and the major parties' strategic responses will be key factors determining the party's long-term impact on the Australian political system.