One Nation Reports Increased Polling Support and Unveils Policy Platform Amidst Electoral Tests and Controversies

One Nation's Ascendancy: Polling Surge Meets Policy and Scrutiny

One Nation, an Australian political party, has experienced a remarkable surge in national opinion polling, signaling increased support across diverse demographics. The party has put forth a comprehensive policy platform addressing immigration, housing, energy, and government administration. This burgeoning popularity is currently being tested in upcoming state elections and federal by-elections, while the party and its leaders simultaneously face scrutiny over financial declarations and controversial public statements.

Rising Polling Support and Voter Shifts

Recent national polls have indicated a significant increase in primary support for One Nation, with figures ranging from 18% to 27%. Some surveys have even shown the party polling ahead of the combined Liberal and National parties for the first time. This marks a substantial increase from its 6.4% national vote share in the 2025 federal election.

Polling data suggests that approximately 58% of Australians are open to voting for One Nation in the next federal election.

The party's increased support is reportedly drawing voters from both the Coalition and, to a lesser extent, the Labor Party. Demographically, One Nation's support base is concentrated outside capital cities, among individuals without a university education, and those with middle-to-low incomes. Support is also noted to be higher among older voters, particularly those over 50, and among low-income earners, although some high-income earners are also backing the party. Men are slightly more likely to support One Nation than women.

Factors contributing to this shift reportedly include financial stress, cost-of-living pressures, disillusionment with major parties, and a perceived lack of national leadership. Voters have also cited concerns regarding government priorities, immigration levels, and existing gun and free speech laws.

One Nation attributes part of its growth to the decision of former Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce to join the party in December and to its consistent messaging over time.

The party claims a nearly 600% increase in membership since the last election and states it has established branches in all 150 federal electorates, expressing an ambition to become a viable alternative government.

Key Policy Positions

One Nation's policy platform covers multiple sectors:

The party proposes to significantly reduce migrant numbers, including an annual cap of 130,000 visas, and to deport individuals who have overstayed visas or are working illegally. Key proposals include reintroducing temporary protection visas and refusing entry to individuals from nations deemed to foster extremist ideologies. An eight-year waiting period for citizenship and welfare is also proposed, alongside withdrawal from the UN Refugee Convention.

One Nation links housing affordability to immigration levels, suggesting that reduced foreign arrivals would improve the situation.

The party also proposes banning foreign ownership of property, a measure economist Saul Eslake suggests would have minimal impact, and introducing a five-year GST moratorium on building materials for some homes.

One Nation attributes rising energy costs to the renewable energy transition and net-zero targets. The party advocates for the continued use of coal and expansion of gas. They propose to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, repeal climate-related laws, abolish the renewable energy target, and abolish the government department of climate change. A ban on clean energy installations is also proposed.

The party states emission reduction policies are "economic suicide" and questions established climate change science, while the Australian Energy Market Regulator's analysis indicates renewables are the cheapest energy source.

Proposals include reducing government spending and reorganizing agencies. One Nation aims to abolish the National Indigenous Australians Agency, review the housing and education departments, abolish the Therapeutic Goods Administration, and review pandemic-approved medications on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme.

The party also proposes withdrawing from the United Nations, Paris Agreement, and World Health Organization, and reducing foreign aid spending, with proposed savings intended to lower federal debt.

In education, the party criticizes state education's perceived reduction in basic proficiency benchmarks and focus on social policy, advocating for a concentration on "writing, reading and arithmetic." To address healthcare access in regional areas, One Nation proposes boosting rural medical staff through three-year contracts for newly qualified professionals, with student loans paid off in return.

In tax, the party seeks to simplify income tax settings and reduce the corporate tax rate to attract investment, also prioritizing targeting multinational corporations for tax payment. Economist Saul Eslake questioned the funding for corporate tax cuts. On trade, Pauline Hanson has previously supported tariffs, while Barnaby Joyce expressed reservations about retaliatory tariffs.

Electoral Strategy and Upcoming Tests

One Nation's electoral strategy includes aiming to gain seats in both federal and state parliaments. The party's prospects of winning federal lower house seats are considered higher if its national primary vote reaches double digits, with potential target electorates identified in Queensland and New South Wales. However, the party has historically faced challenges in translating high poll numbers into numerous lower house victories due to factors such as candidate vetting, volunteer infrastructure, and securing favorable preference flows.

The party is actively campaigning in upcoming state elections, having launched campaigns in South Australia and Victoria. In South Australia's March election, One Nation aims to secure one or two upper house seats. Recent state polling has shown One Nation ahead of the Liberal Party in primary vote. The South Australian election will feature a record number of candidates, potentially leading to longer ballot papers and extended vote counting. In Victoria, despite historically low support, One Nation is expanding its base and plans to field candidates in every electoral seat, seeking to secure the balance of power in the upper house.

A federal by-election in Farrer in May is also anticipated to be a significant test for One Nation's reported national polling gains.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has stated her party will not join a "super coalition" with the Liberal and National parties, expressing intent to maintain independence and evaluate legislation on its merits without seeking ministerial positions. Both Hanson and Barnaby Joyce have indicated a belief that major parties aim to impede One Nation's momentum.

In South Australia, the Liberal opposition has announced it will preference One Nation over the Labor Party in the upcoming state election, despite some internal and external criticism.

Liberal leader Ashton Hurn stated this decision prioritizes electing as many Liberals as possible. Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas has ruled out a preference deal with One Nation. Historically, a similar preference deal in Western Australia in 2017 did not lead to Liberal success and saw One Nation underperform its early polling.

The Labor government is developing strategies to counter One Nation's rising support. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and other Labor figures have highlighted One Nation's opposition to policies aimed at supporting workers and addressing the cost of living. Some Labor strategists suggest focusing on economic agendas and workers' rights, while others acknowledge a need to address "legitimate concerns" regarding migration levels.

Party Leadership and Controversies

Pauline Hanson has been scrutinized for not declaring director roles and shareholdings in three companies, including A Pauline Production Pty Ltd, A Super Progressive Movie Pty Ltd, and Small Batch Brewing Pty Ltd, as well as a directorship in Pauline Hanson One Nation Ltd. A spokesman stated the production and brewing companies are not currently trading and that Hanson's office is seeking confirmation from the Senate tabling office to update her record if required.

Parliamentary regulations stipulate that knowingly failing to declare interests is a serious contempt of the Senate.

One Nation figures have also made controversial public statements.

Bianca Colecchia, the Victorian state secretary, filmed people in Melbourne and stated the city "doesn't look like a Western nation," advocating for limiting migrants from "non-culturally cohesive countries" and claiming multiculturalism was a "failed concept."

These comments drew criticism from other political figures and ethnic community councils.

Pauline Hanson herself made statements on Sky News questioning the existence of "good" Muslims and making claims about certain Australian suburbs, which generated widespread criticism. Federal police are reportedly investigating if these comments violated any laws. Hanson later offered a partial apology, clarifying that she does not believe there are no "good" Muslims, but maintained concerns regarding Sharia law, multiple marriages, and a caliphate. Barnaby Joyce agreed that some individuals entering the country are "completely at odds" with Australia.

Cory Bernardi, One Nation's lead candidate in South Australia, reaffirmed comments made in 2012 that linked gay marriage to bestiality and endorsed Hanson's comments on Muslims, claiming that the values of a "good Muslim" are "incompatible with Australian values."

These statements drew criticism from Labor, Greens, and Islamic community representatives.

Additionally, the South Australian Liberal Party requested the withdrawal of candidate Carston Woodhouse due to controversial comments on Islam, feminism, and same-sex marriage, a move that raised concerns for some federal Liberal MPs.