Gaza Ceasefire Faces Mounting Challenges as Second Phase Begins

A US-brokered ceasefire in Gaza, which began in October, has entered a second phase, though the agreement faces significant challenges including ongoing hostilities, political disputes, and a deteriorating humanitarian situation. The ceasefire and associated peace plan, introduced by former US President Donald Trump, outlines a multi-stage process involving the return of hostages, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, the disarmament of Hamas, the establishment of a new governing authority, and the reconstruction of the territory.

Ceasefire and Hostilities

The ceasefire agreement, which both Israel and Hamas reportedly signed, took effect in October. While the intensity of large-scale military operations has decreased, violence has continued.

Since the ceasefire began, Gaza's Health Ministry has reported over 700 Palestinian fatalities from Israeli strikes.

• Casualties: The Israeli military has reported three of its soldiers killed by Palestinian armed groups during the same period.
• Incidents: Reports detail ongoing Israeli airstrikes and artillery fire across Gaza, resulting in civilian deaths, including women and children. A specific incident involved the reported death of a three-year-old girl, Ahed Tareq Al-Bayouk, who was allegedly shot while playing near her family's tent in southern Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated they were "not aware of a strike" and would conduct a review.
• Ceasefire Violations: Both Israel and Hamas have accused each other of violating the ceasefire. Israel states its strikes are for enforcement, while Hamas points to the civilian death toll.

Hostage Situation

A central component of the first phase of the plan was the exchange of hostages captured during the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel for Palestinian detainees.

• Return of Hostages: All living Israeli hostages and most of the deceased captives have been returned.
• Remaining Hostage: The remains of one Israeli police officer, Ran Gvili, 24, have not been returned. His family believes Hamas is withholding his remains as leverage for future negotiations. A Hamas official has denied the allegation.
• Condition for Progress: The return of Gvili's remains has been stated as a prerequisite by Israel for advancing the peace plan to its subsequent stages.

Territorial Control and Withdrawal

The ceasefire established a demarcation line, known as the "yellow line," which divides the Gaza Strip.

• Current Israeli Position: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he has ordered the Israeli army to expand its territorial control from approximately 60% to 70% of Gaza. The IDF's chief of staff, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, has referred to the yellow line as a "new defensive and operational border."
• Ceasefire Provisions: The peace plan mandates a staged Israeli withdrawal from the territory. The extent and timeline of this withdrawal remain under negotiation. Israel has indicated a need to maintain a significant security presence in Gaza, with plans to hold a "buffer zone" along the border. This has raised concerns about a potential permanent partition of the territory.

Political Framework and Governance

The US-led peace plan, operating under a "Board of Peace" chaired by Donald Trump, aims to establish a new governing structure for Gaza.

• Phase One: Focused on the hostage exchange, a partial Israeli withdrawal, and an increase in humanitarian aid.
• Phase Two and Governing Committee: The White House announced the initiation of "phase two," which includes the formation of a new Palestinian technocratic committee, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), to manage Gaza's daily affairs. This committee is led by Ali Shaath, a civil engineer and former Palestinian Authority official. A separate executive committee, which includes US officials and international figures like former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, was also announced to oversee the plan.
• Hamas's Position: Hamas has stated its willingness to dissolve its government in Gaza to facilitate the new committee. However, it has not indicated plans to disarm its military wing. Senior Hamas official Bassem Naim has expressed a willingness to discuss options for "freezing, storing, or laying down weapons" under Palestinian guarantees, while other officials have affirmed the group's right to self-defense.
• Israel's Objections: The Israeli government has stated that the Gaza executive committee "was not coordinated with Israel and is contrary to its policy." Prime Minister Netanyahu characterized the announcement as a "declarative move." Israel has also explicitly rejected the inclusion of Turkey and Qatar in any international force, despite their roles as mediators.
• International Reactions: The "Board of Peace" has received varied international responses. King Mohammed VI of Morocco accepted an invitation, while France declined. Israel was reportedly asked to join but its acceptance is unconfirmed. Several countries, including Egypt and Indonesia, have indicated readiness to participate in a potential international stabilization force.

Reconstruction Plans

Multiple proposals for Gaza's reconstruction have been presented, with a significant financial need estimated by the United Nations, the European Union, and the World Bank at approximately $70 billion.

• US "New Gaza" Master Plan: Presented at the World Economic Forum in Davos by Jared Kushner, this plan envisions a complete rebuilding of the territory. Key elements include:

  • Redevelopment of Gaza's coastline for tourism with 180 high-rise towers.
  • A "New Rafah" with over 100,000 permanent housing units, 200 education centers, and 75 medical facilities.
  • New industrial zones, a seaport, and an airport.
  • Demilitarization of Hamas as a prerequisite for reconstruction, with security designated as crucial for investment.

• Palestinian-Led Plan: Shaath, the head of the NCAG, has proposed a separate plan to clear an estimated 68 million tonnes of rubble. His plan suggests pushing debris into the Mediterranean Sea to create new land, with a three-year timeline for debris removal. He has stated that Gaza could be rebuilt within seven years, a timeline that contrasts with a 2024 UN report estimating reconstruction could take until at least 2040. Shaath has indicated the Egyptian and Arab League plan forms the "foundation" of his committee's project.

Humanitarian Crisis

The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains severe, with conditions described as "extremely fragile" by residents and aid organizations.

Over 800,000 individuals have been affected by flooding from a winter storm.

• Displacement: Many of the territory's 2.1 million residents are displaced and living in tents, exposed to the elements.
• Food Insecurity: According to the UN, 1.6 million people face high levels of acute food insecurity. While some commercial products are available, access to fresh meat, fish, and vegetables is difficult, and prices have risen significantly.
• Health and Sanitation: Most residents rely on contaminated groundwater, leading to outbreaks of hepatitis A, acute kidney injury, and other diseases. There is a critical lack of safe water and sanitation. A winter storm has submerged displacement camps and caused structures to collapse.
• Casualty Figures: The Hamas-run health ministry reports over 71,000 Palestinian deaths since the conflict began. The World Health Organization states at least 16,500 wounded or critically ill Palestinians require urgent evacuation for medical treatment. The United Nations considers the health ministry's figures to be reliable.

Regional Context and Obstacles

The Gaza peace process has been affected by broader regional dynamics.

• Impact of Iran Conflict: The eruption of a conflict between Israel and Iran, following Israeli strikes on Iran, has diverted international attention and resources away from Gaza. Indonesia reportedly suspended its participation in the Board of Peace following this development.
• Rafah Crossing: The reopening of the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt has been a point of contention. Movement through the crossing has been limited, well below the expected daily allowance. Israel has delayed its full reopening, citing the need for the return of the final hostage before it will allow unimpeded two-way traffic.
• Disarmament Obstacle: The disarmament of Hamas is a primary hurdle. Without an agreement on this, the commitment of foreign troops for security and the initiation of reconstruction in Hamas-controlled areas are considered unlikely. A senior Board of Peace official has indicated that if Hamas does not disarm, the IDF will be expected to handle the situation.