A weather system that was Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila has weakened significantly and is now a tropical low, forecast to approach the Queensland coast early next week. The system impacted several Pacific islands before losing strength.
System Status and Trajectory
The system reached its peak intensity as a Category 5 cyclone on Friday morning. It has since weakened substantially as it moves west from the Solomon Sea. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) currently classifies it as a tropical low, with the potential to weaken below cyclone intensity before reaching the Australian coast.
The system is slow-moving and located in the Solomon Sea. Forecasts indicate it may enter the Coral Sea early next week and track toward the Far North Queensland coast. An alternative scenario has the system weakening entirely over the Solomon Sea or southeastern Papua New Guinea without emerging into the Coral Sea as a tropical cyclone.
BOM Senior Forecaster Shane Kennedy stated any potential landfall would likely occur north of Cooktown, with the tropical low forecast to make landfall on Queensland's Cape York Peninsula on Wednesday.
Regional Impact and Damage
Pacific Islands
The cyclone caused damage across multiple Pacific nations. In the Solomon Islands, buildings were destroyed in Western Province and severe flooding was reported in many villages. The health clinic on Simbo Island lost its roof. In Bougainville, heavy rains, swollen rivers, and landslides damaged or washed away roads. Two deaths were reported in Papua New Guinea.
Authorities expressed concern for the remote islands of Woodlark and Budi Budi, with the eye of the storm forecast to cross over these areas. Barry Kirby of the charity The Hands of Rescue stated concern for Budi Budi due to its isolation and low elevation, noting that market gardens relied upon by communities would likely be destroyed. His organization is preparing to deliver food and medicine. Egnios Sinodi, principal of Budi Budi Primary School, noted the island is completely flat with no high ground for shelter.
The Solomon Islands government announced a $2 million assistance package for affected residents. The Australian government stated it is monitoring the cyclone's movement and stands ready to assist Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands.
Queensland Preparations
Cape York communities are preparing for the system while still recovering from Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, which crossed the region less than three weeks prior. Cook Shire Mayor Robyn Holmes reported that road washouts from Narelle are still restricting access, and additional heavy rainfall would impede recovery efforts.
Forecast Rainfall and Flooding
BOM Senior Forecaster Felim Hanniffy stated that despite the system weakening, flash flooding and river rises remain possible. He identified heavy rainfall as the primary concern once the system moves onto the Queensland coast, noting many areas are already saturated from previous rainfall.
Even if the system has weakened, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected across northern Queensland from Tuesday next week. Some areas of north and Far North Queensland could receive up to 100 millimeters of rain. Given the wet condition of catchments, river rises may occur and a flood watch could be issued during the weekend.
Queensland Weather Context
Most of Queensland not affected by the system is experiencing above-average temperatures. The remainder of the state is forecast to have mostly sunny weather, with isolated showers north of Mackay and scattered showers between Ingham and Cooktown.
A maximum preliminary April temperature record of 36.9 degrees Celsius was set at St George. A trough moving into far southwestern areas is expected to bring cooler air across the state in coming days. Hot conditions are forecast to continue through eastern and central districts over the weekend, with temperatures close to 10 degrees above seasonal averages.
Separately, a hazardous surf warning may be issued for areas along the southern Queensland coastline, caused by another ex-tropical system currently heading toward New Zealand.