Liberal Party Election Review Delayed, Leaked, and Contested Amidst Internal Conflicts and Election Analysis

A review into the Liberal Party's 2025 federal election campaign, co-authored by Pru Goward and Nick Minchin, was delayed and subsequently leaked following internal disputes. These disputes included defamation concerns raised by former opposition leader Peter Dutton.

Concurrently, the Labor Party released its own post-election review, which analyzed the factors contributing to its victory and the Coalition's defeat. Both reports highlight leadership, campaign strategy, voter perception, and specific policy decisions as significant influences on the election outcome.

Liberal Party Review: Delay, Suppression, and Leak

The release of the Liberal Party's internal review into its 2025 federal election campaign was postponed. This followed claims by Peter Dutton, the former opposition leader, that certain elements of the report were defamatory towards him and his staff, including his former chief of staff, Alex Dalgleish. Dutton reportedly communicated to the party that releasing the report in its original form could pose legal risks.

The party's secretariat paused the report's release to address these concerns, submitting the document to a legal team for review. During a federal executive meeting in December, the report was initially rejected. Some members expressed concerns that Dutton had not been given a right of reply to specific sections, a right afforded to other individuals mentioned in the review. Authors Pru Goward and Nick Minchin stated they applied a consistent process for all interviewees and did not believe further consultation with Dutton was necessary.

Despite calls from Minchin and Goward for its public release, the Liberal Federal executive later decided to suppress the report. This decision, a departure from established convention, was reportedly influenced by low polling for the party, an upcoming byelection, and a surge in support for One Nation. Officials opted against publicizing internal conflicts. Angus Taylor, the new Coalition leader, and deputy Jane Hume faced scrutiny over this decision. The suppressed 64-page document was subsequently leaked to the media.

Dutton described the review as an "unprofessional attempt at a hit job," calling it "embarrassing," "gratuitous and personal," and containing "numerous baseless claims."

Minchin refuted Dutton's claims, asserting that Dutton's leadership and campaign decisions significantly contributed to the extent of the electoral loss.

Key Findings of the Leaked Liberal Review

The leaked review described the 2025 campaign as "the worst campaign the Party has ever fought," identifying several critical factors contributing to the Liberal Party's historically poor performance.

Campaign Management and Leadership

The review noted the increasing presidential nature of Australian elections, making the leader a critical campaign component. It described Peter Dutton's "grim and introverted demeanour" as lacking "upbeat and inspiring" qualities. His "hard-man" image was considered "unattractive to women," leading some female candidates to request he not visit their electorates, and he was seen as "lacking connection" with younger voters.

A "broken" and "unworkable" relationship existed between Dutton, his office, and federal director Andrew Hirst. The review stated that Dutton reportedly had "little confidence" in Hirst and effectively assumed control of "campaign management," sidelining the party's central campaign team. This shift resulted in a lack of coordinated strategy and led to "chaotic travel and policy announcements." Reviewers concluded that Dutton's office took control of the campaign at crucial points, superseding Hirst, attributing this breakdown partly to Dutton's "untrusting nature."

The campaign's policy agenda was deemed "incoherent." This included proposals for government-owned nuclear reactors, an abandoned plan to end working from home for public servants, and a promise to reverse Labor's income tax cuts. These policies reportedly defied the party's values.

Voter Alienation

The review identified the "female vote as clearly a problem for the Liberal Party." The combination of a leader perceived as "unattractive to women" and policies or messaging that alienated women was cited as a major factor. The decision to announce an end to working from home for Commonwealth public servants, a policy later reversed, was identified as a significant campaign error that reduced the leader's credibility.

The report highlighted a significant problem with recent migrants, noting that 63% of voters who spoke a language other than English at home intended to vote Labor, compared to 37% for Liberal. Senator Jane Hume's "Chinese spies" comment was identified as a critical factor that became viral on Chinese language platforms, contributing to losses in seats with high proportions of Chinese heritage voters.

Labor successfully depicted Dutton as "Trump-like" to the Australian public. Dutton's policies, including proposed cuts of 40,000 public service jobs, abolishing working from home for public servants, and establishing a shadow ministry for government efficiency, were viewed as "Trump-like" and proved "deeply unpopular."

Polling Discrepancies

The party was reportedly "misled" by "faulty" research from polling firm Freshwater Strategy, which significantly overstated support for the Coalition due to "faulty weighting." This misrepresentation led to the misallocation of financial and personnel resources. The review noted Dutton had an "unusual direct relationship" with Freshwater's principal pollster, Mike Turner, who advised Dutton while also working for other clients.

Recommendations from the Liberal Review

The Liberal Party faces an "existential threat," according to the review, which emphasized the urgency of implementing its 18 recommendations for the party's survival.

Key recommendations include:

• Codifying the campaign director's authority over the party leader's office.
• Hiring campaigners in key seats to address an "ageing" membership base.
• Partnering with women's organizations to identify common ground.
• Requiring MPs to engage with younger individuals and diverse voter demographics.
• Reviewing fundraising practices to prevent conflicts of interest.
• Advising against relying on a single polling firm, and ensuring pollsters do not have direct communication with the leader without the campaign director's knowledge.

Labor Party's Election Review Findings

A separate review conducted by the Labor Party into the 2025 federal election concluded that the approach taken by Peter Dutton contributed significantly to the Coalition’s defeat. The review, released on Friday, indicated that Dutton's political strategy, characterized by poorly designed and explained policies, created a barrier to support for the Coalition.

Labor's review concluded that Peter Dutton's "negative, arrogant, and aggressive" approach and poorly designed policies significantly contributed to the Coalition’s defeat, while Anthony Albanese’s positive message resonated with voters.

Conversely, the review stated that Anthony Albanese’s positive message and policies, which aimed to improve voters’ lives, resonated with the electorate. Labor's campaign review described Dutton's approach as "negative, arrogant, and aggressive."

Coalition's Campaign Deficiencies (as identified by Labor)

• Policy proposals such as government-owned nuclear power and restrictive work-from-home rules for public servants were not well received by voters.
• Dutton’s campaign exhibited inconsistency, policy backflips, poorly coordinated announcements, and a lack of message discipline.
• Efforts to frame the election as a referendum on Albanese's first term were unsuccessful, as Labor effectively positioned the debate as a choice between Albanese and Dutton.

Recommendations for Labor

The Labor review also offered recommendations for its own party, suggesting a need for modernization, rebuilding grassroots membership, and working to counter potential challenges from independents. It warned about the risks of AI and targeted disinformation for future campaigns and advised Labor to emphasize the importance of electing its candidates to the Senate to facilitate legislative reforms.

Election Outcome

The 2025 federal election resulted in the Labor Party securing 94 seats, representing its largest majority in the lower house since federation. The Liberal Party secured 54 seats out of 151 in the lower house, following a significant reduction in its primary vote, particularly in urban areas.

Labor also ousted Peter Dutton in his own seat of Dickson.

This outcome aligns with the Australian Electoral Study, which identified a decline in support for the Coalition's economic policies and noted Dutton's low popularity, while Albanese received more favorable ratings on key attributes.