Australia's Alliance with the US: A Nation at a Crossroads
A series of articles published between 2025 and 2026 reveal a growing debate within Australia over the future of its alliance with the United States. Commentators, experts, and some political figures are questioning the alliance's foundations amid shifting US foreign policy, changing global dynamics, and declining public confidence.
Declining Public Confidence in the US Alliance
Multiple polls cited across the articles indicate a sharp decrease in Australian public trust regarding the United States.
A Lowy Institute poll from June 2025 found that 72% of Australians had limited or no confidence in former President Donald Trump "to do the right thing."
- A YouGov poll for the Australia Institute in November 2025 indicated that only 8% of Australians believed Australia "shares values" with modern America, with a plurality considering the US an unreliable ally.
- A U.S. Study Centre poll reported that 42% of Australians believed the alliance made Australia more secure in 2025 — a 13-percentage-point drop from 2024.
- A separate Australia Institute poll from May 2025 found 54.2% of Australians desired a more independent foreign policy.
Despite these declines, Michael Fullilove, executive director of the Lowy Institute, noted that support for the US alliance remains robust, with eight out of 10 Australians considering it important for security.
Critiques of the US Alliance and Calls for Strategic Reassessment
Several experts and political figures have called for Australia to reassess its relationship with the US.
Dr. Emma Shortis, director of international and security affairs at The Australia Institute, described the US alliance as "on really shaky ground" and argued it "locks Australia into American conflict and military adventurism." She proposed a parliamentary inquiry into the AUKUS submarine deal and advocated for building regional networks around shared interests such as climate action and public health.
Former Labor foreign ministers Gareth Evans and Bob Carr questioned the alliance's future. Evans stated that Trump's America has "zero respect for international law, morality and the interests of its allies," suggesting the alliance "might have run its course."
Greens Senator David Shoebridge called for the Albanese government to reassess the national security aspects of the relationship, arguing that a close US alliance could place Australia on a frontline in a potential US-China conflict.
Michael Wesley, author of "Blind Spot: Southeast Asia and Australia’s Future," characterized Australia's foreign policy approach as "strategic infantilisation," arguing that Southeast Asian nations view Australia as an extension of American grand strategy with limited capacity for independent action.
John Menadue, writing in April 2026, advocated for Australia to "insulate" itself from US foreign policy decisions, proposing greater oversight of US military bases on Australian soil and a review of the AUKUS pact.
Arguments for Maintaining the Alliance
Other voices argued for the continued importance of the US alliance.
Scott Hargreaves, Executive Director of the Institute of Public Affairs, stated it would be naive to assume Australia could avoid conflict if China were to expand its influence aggressively. He argued that building a defense force alongside the US alliance contributes to peace through credible deterrence.
Foreign Minister Penny Wong affirmed that the US remains Australia's closest strategic partner and most important security ally, and stated the relationship should not be politicized domestically.
Michael Fullilove proposed three strategies for Australia:
- Increased self-reliance
- Strengthening regional partnerships
- Maintaining US engagement in the Indo-Pacific by demonstrating Australia's value as an ally through facilities like Pine Gap and the Five Eyes intelligence network
Proposed Policy Changes for Australia
Commentators and experts suggested several potential policy shifts:
AUKUS Submarine Deal: Multiple sources called for a review or termination of the AUKUS agreement, citing its estimated cost of $360 billion and questions about US capacity to deliver.
China Relations: Several articles proposed developing a more constructive relationship with China, particularly in areas like renewable energy and multilateral trade, and exploring initiatives such as the Belt and Road and BRICS expansion.
Regional Engagement: Calls were made for Australia to significantly enhance engagement with the Indo-Pacific region and strengthen diplomatic ties with Southeast Asian nations.
US Military Presence: Some commentators proposed reassessing the necessity of US military bases in Northern Australia and implementing greater Australian oversight of these facilities.
Independent Foreign Policy: Several figures advocated for Australia to assert more independent positions and move towards becoming a "genuine middle power" by rebuilding its own defense and economic capabilities.
Global Context and Shifting International Order
The articles place Australia's debate within a broader context of concerns about the global order.
Mark Carney, Canadian Prime Minister, stated at the World Economic Forum in Davos that "the old order is not coming back" and advocated for "middle powers" to collaborate, saying, "if we're not at the table, we're on the menu."
Professor Bec Strating, director of the La Trobe Centre for Global Security, cautioned against viewing the Trump era as a temporary anomaly, suggesting it reflects structural shifts within the US.
One article noted that Australia is experiencing a severe shortage of fossil fuels due to an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Potential Consequences of Policy Change
Senator Shoebridge acknowledged that any move away from a close US relationship could result in retaliatory actions from the US, potentially involving refusing support for Australian military hardware purchased from US contractors. However, he suggested a tariff war against Australia would be detrimental to the United States itself, given the trade balance favoring the US.