Tanzania has experienced post-election unrest following the presidential election held on October 29. These events have impacted the country's long-standing reputation for stability and have drawn criticism from regional and continental organizations.
Election Outcome and Initial Period
President Samia Suluhu Hassan secured 98% of the vote in the October 29 election. She assumed office in 2021 following the death of her predecessor, John Magufuli. President Hassan's initial approach to leadership, which included allowing opposition rallies and criticism, was noted positively both domestically and internationally. She also pledged a "4R" doctrine focused on reconciliation, resilience, rebuilding, and reform. President Hassan was born and raised in Zanzibar.
Pre-Election Political Climate and Actions
Prior to the election, analysts observed a tense political environment in Tanzania. This period was characterized by stalled reforms, reported youth discontent, internal power dynamics within the ruling party, and sustained actions against opposition leaders. Sources indicate that the government systematically worked to remove competition before the election. Two prominent opposition leaders were unable to contest: Tundu Lissu is in detention facing treason charges, which he denies, and Luhaga Mpina's candidacy was rejected on technical grounds. Kenyan policy analyst Prof. Peter Kagwanja stated that political opposition should be addressed by seeking public support rather than through arrests.
Analysts have indicated that as President Hassan pursued a second term, she began to view internal party pressures within the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) and the re-emergence of the opposition as challenges to her political aspirations. Over three years, cabinet reshuffles and changes in military and intelligence leadership occurred, which some observers interpreted as moves to consolidate power and remove loyalists of the previous administration. Prof. Kagwanja described President Hassan's approach within the CCM as involving party manipulation, power centralization, and the formation of a loyalist group, akin to methods used by her predecessor. President Hassan's political strategies, which led to her nickname "Simba jike" (lioness) among supporters, resulted in her nomination as the CCM's presidential candidate in January.
Post-Election Developments and Reactions
In the months preceding the election, reports of abductions, arrests, and killings of opposition members emerged. The political environment reportedly became restrictive, and the election period was marked by an internet blackout and a curfew. While authorities have not released an official death toll, the opposition claims hundreds of individuals may have died in the post-election unrest. The violence represented a departure from Tanzania's established image of calm and order. Commentator Charles Onyango-Obbo stated that the concept of "Tanzanian exceptionalism" had been challenged.
In her inauguration speech, President Hassan stated the election was fair and transparent. She acknowledged deaths during protests and attributed them to foreign actors. The African Union and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) issued critiques, stating that the electoral victory did not meet accepted democratic standards. They cited concerns such as alleged ballot-stuffing, repression, and systemic flaws. The main opposition party, the Party for Democracy and Development (Chadema), declared the results "completely fabricated."
Challenges for the Second Term
Prof. Kagwanja suggested that President Hassan's greater challenge was to secure public confidence in the fairness of the election, stating that pathways for a fair contest were reportedly closed. Analysts anticipate that President Hassan's second term will likely face ongoing international scrutiny regarding the election's legitimacy.