The Denver Broncos secured the AFC's No. 1 seed with a 14-3 record, earning home-field advantage and a bye week. Despite this, some betting lines initially favored the Buffalo Bills (13-5) on the road, though most have since settled on Broncos -1.5. DVOA ratings indicate the Broncos are slightly ahead of the Bills in both full-season and weighted DVOA, suggesting they are a stronger favorite when considering home-field advantage and the bye week.
Bills on Offense vs. Broncos on Defense
This matchup pits the Bills' strong offense against the Broncos' strong defense. The Bills' offensive performance, particularly in passing and running, has seen a decline since Week 10, though their run offense remains highly ranked. The Broncos' run defense has also declined in recent weeks, but their pass defense has not. Both teams demonstrate strength in the trenches, with the Broncos ranking third in ESPN's pass rush win rate and the Bills ranking fourth in pass block win rate.
The Broncos' defense has weaknesses, ranking 25th against