A global survey conducted across 21 countries for the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank indicates that many worldwide perceive the United States' "America First" approach as contributing to China's increasing global influence. The survey also suggests a decline in the US's standing among its traditional allies and a reduction in fear from its adversaries under the current administration.
Key Survey Findings
- China's Growing Influence: Majorities in nearly all surveyed territories anticipate China's global influence to expand over the next decade. This includes 54% in the US and 53% in 10 EU states. Many EU citizens expect China to lead in electric vehicles and renewable energies.
- Perceptions of China: Few respondents expressed concern regarding China's growing influence. Majorities in Ukraine and South Korea were the only ones to view China as a rival or adversary. In South Africa (85%), Russia (86%), and Brazil (73%), majorities consider China a necessary partner or ally.
- Declining US Influence: While the US is still seen as influential, a majority of respondents, including within the US itself (excluding Brazil, India, South Africa, and Turkey), did not expect American influence to increase further.
- US as an Ally: The US's status as an ally has decreased in almost all surveyed countries. India was the sole country where a majority still regarded the US as an ally, sharing values and interests. Among EU citizens, only 16% now view the US as an ally, with 20% considering it a rival or enemy.
- Views on US President's Re-election: Expectations regarding the current US president's re-election had decreased compared to 12 months prior, with fewer respondents believing it would benefit US citizens, their own countries, or global peace.
Regional Shifts
- Europe and US: Most Europeans no longer perceive the US as a reliable ally and increasingly support rearmament.
- Russia and Ukraine: Russians are more likely (51%) to view Europe as an adversary than the US (37%). Ukrainians are more likely to see Europe as an ally (39%) than the US (18%).
- China and EU: 61% of Chinese respondents view the US as a threat, compared to 19% who see the EU as such. A majority (59%) in China consider the EU a major power, with 46% viewing it as a partner.
- European Self-Perception: Many Europeans (46%) do not believe the EU can deal on equal terms with the US or China. A significant portion (49%) doubt the future for their countries, and 51% for the world. Concerns about Russian aggression (40%) and a major European war (55%) are prevalent, with 52% supporting increased defense spending.
Conclusion from Authors
The report's authors stated that the survey revealed "a world in which US actions were boosting China" and suggested that Europe faces the risk of being marginalized. They advised European leaders to acknowledge these geopolitical changes and strive for Europe to become a significant "pole" in the evolving global landscape.