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United States Announces Second Phase of Gaza Plan, Establishes Technocratic Administration

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The United States has announced the commencement of the second phase of a US-brokered plan for the Gaza Strip, aiming to transition the territory from a ceasefire to demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction. This phase includes the establishment of a transitional Palestinian administration and is overseen by a "Board of Peace" chaired by President Donald Trump. US officials have emphasized expectations for Hamas to comply with its obligations, including the return of the last deceased hostage, Ran Gvili, warning of serious consequences for non-compliance.

Phase Two Commencement and Objectives

US Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, made the announcement via a social media post, stating that the 20-point Gaza plan would address the conflict in the region. The second phase is intended to initiate the full demilitarization and reconstruction of Gaza, which includes the disarmament of Hamas and other Palestinian groups. A primary objective is to establish a transitional administration to manage the Palestinian territory.

Transitional Governance Structure

A technocratic Palestinian government has been established, referred to as the "Palestinian Technocratic Committee to Administer the Gaza Strip" or the "National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG)." This 15-member committee is expected to be led by Ali Shaath, a former deputy planning minister in the Palestinian Authority (PA). While members are anticipated to be technocrats, some are believed to have affiliations with the Fatah party, a prominent faction within the PA.

The transitional administration will operate under the oversight of a "Board of Peace," which is planned to be chaired by President Trump. Former UN Middle East envoy Nickolay Mladenov is designated as the board's representative in Gaza. The committee's deployment is intended to manage daily life and essential services, though it is not expected to commence work until authorized by the "Peace Board," whose membership, comprising world leaders, is scheduled for a future announcement. An International Stabilisation Force (ISF) is also slated for deployment to Gaza to train and support vetted Palestinian police forces.

Regional and Factional Support

The formation of this technocratic government has garnered support from regional mediators, including Egypt and Turkey. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty announced an agreement on all 15 members of the interim committee. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) issued a joint statement supporting the committee's formation, as did the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority, with Vice-President Hussein al-Sheikh acknowledging President Trump's role in creating a "new opportunity for peace, stability, and good governance."

Hostage Concerns and Consequences

The US has stated its expectation for Hamas to fully comply with its obligations, specifically the immediate return of the body of Ran Gvili, identified as the last deceased hostage. Failure to do so will result in serious consequences, according to US officials. Ran Gvili was among the individuals abducted on October 7, 2023, during a Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, which resulted in approximately 1,200 fatalities. Groups representing Israeli former hostages and their families had urged the US against declaring the second phase until Gvili’s remains were returned. Hamas has reported an inability to locate Gvili’s body. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has communicated with Gvili's parents, stating that his return remains a top priority and that the establishment of the technocratic committee will not impact efforts to retrieve his body.

Context and Challenges

The initial phase of the peace plan was enacted in October and involved a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, a hostage-prisoner exchange, a partial Israeli troop withdrawal, and an increase in humanitarian aid. Since the start of the ceasefire, Israeli bombardment of Gaza has continued, albeit diminished, resulting in approximately 450 Palestinian fatalities, according to Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry. The same source reports over 71,430 deaths in Gaza from Israel's subsequent military operations.

Challenges for the implementation of Phase Two include Hamas's prior refusal to disarm without the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, Israel's lack of firm commitment to a complete withdrawal from Gaza, and reports of ongoing violations that render the existing ceasefire fragile. Discussions in Cairo concerning the second phase have also addressed further Israeli military withdrawal, the reopening of the Rafah crossing, and an increased flow of aid and goods into Gaza, as the United Nations reports humanitarian conditions in the territory remain critical, emphasizing the necessity for unrestricted delivery of essential supplies.