The United States experienced negative net migration in 2025, marking the first time in at least half a century, according to recent analysis. This trend is expected to continue or intensify in 2026, driven by dramatic changes in immigration policy and increased enforcement.
Net Migration Estimates
- 2025: Net migration is estimated to be between -295,000 and -10,000.
- 2026: Projections suggest net migration will likely remain negative, ranging from -925,000 to +185,000.
These figures are subject to uncertainty due to recent reductions in data transparency.
Factors Contributing to Negative Net Migration
Inflows
A slowdown in new arrivals has been a major factor. Key areas include:
- Green Cards: A marked year-over-year decline of over 20% by May 2025 was observed for green cards issued abroad. Projections for 2026 anticipate further reductions due to expanded travel bans, increased vetting, and paperwork.
- Refugees: The refugee program has been largely suspended, leading to significantly lower admissions. Approximately 7,600 to 12,000 refugees were admitted in 2025, projected to fall to 1,200 to 7,500 in 2026, compared to 105,000 in 2024.
- Temporary Visas: A slowdown in non-immigrant visa issuances, with projections for further declines in 2026 due to travel bans and other deterrents.
- Parole and Notices to Appear: Inflows from border arrivals under parole or notices to appear have fallen substantially due to new administration policies, with an estimated 67,000 to 70,000 in 2025, down from 1.41 million in 2024.
- Entries Without Inspection: While inherently difficult to measure, estimates suggest a sharp slowdown in 2025, with a potential increase in 2026 under certain scenarios.
Outflows
Increased outflows, both formal and voluntary, also contribute:
- Removals: An estimated 310,000 to 315,000 removals occurred in 2025, with projections for potentially higher numbers, around 510,000, in 2026, supported by increased enforcement funding.
- Voluntary Response to Enforcement: Between 210,000 and 405,000 individuals are estimated to have left voluntarily in 2025 due to the heightened enforcement environment, with this number potentially reaching 575,000 in 2026.
Economic Implications
The slowdown in population growth stemming from negative net migration has significant implications for the macroeconomy, particularly for the labor market, GDP, and consumer spending.
Labor Market Impacts
- Labor Force Growth: Historically, immigration has driven nearly all growth in the U.S.-born working-age population. The recent slowdown disrupts this pattern.
- Breakeven Employment Growth: The rate of employment growth consistent with an unchanged unemployment rate has declined significantly. In the second half of 2025, breakeven employment growth was estimated at 20,000 to 50,000 jobs per month, compared to over 100,000 from 2022 to 2024. For 2026, this number could average between -20,000 and +50,000 jobs per month.
Effects on Consumer Spending and GDP
- GDP Growth: Reduced labor supply and consumer spending are projected to dampen GDP growth by approximately -0.2 to -0.3 percentage points in 2025 and -0.1 to -0.3 percentage points in 2026.
- Consumer Spending: Total consumer spending is estimated to be reduced by $40 billion to $60 billion in 2025 and a further $10 billion to $40 billion in 2026 due to fewer immigrants and decreased spending by those remaining in the U.S. amid uncertainty.
- Inflation: The effects of current immigration policy on inflation are likely small, as immigration impacts both labor supply and demand.
Contrast with Other Estimates
This analysis's estimate of negative net migration for 2025 differs from some other prominent projections. For instance, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated net migration of approximately +400,000 for 2025. Other analyses using Current Population Survey (CPS) data have suggested a decline in the foreign-born population of around 2 million, implying much more negative net migration; however, the methodology and reliability of using CPS data for population levels in this context have been questioned due to fixed population controls and increased non-response.