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NRL 2026 Season Outlook: Team Preparations, Player Movements, and Competition Projections

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NRL 2026 Season Preview: A Deep Dive into Transfers, Coaching Challenges & Team Projections

The National Rugby League (NRL) is gearing up for its 2026 season, a campaign anticipated to be highly competitive and marked by significant player transfers, coaching challenges, and diverse team projections. Analyses predict a competitive landscape, with several teams undergoing roster adjustments and strategic shifts aimed at finals contention.

Trends from previous seasons suggest a dynamic shift in the top eight: at least three new teams are likely to enter, while three from the prior year's finalists may not qualify. This consistent historical pattern highlights the unpredictable nature of the NRL ladder. Since the top eight finals system was introduced in 2000, 74 teams have both missed the top eight after qualifying and improved to enter it after missing.

General season predictions from various sources include the Sydney Roosters as potential premiers, while the Brisbane Broncos are projected by some to experience a decline from their recent success.

The South Sydney Rabbitohs and Parramatta Eels are widely expected to improve and secure finals berths, while the Gold Coast Titans are also identified as a team with potential for significant improvement. Conversely, the Sharks and Warriors are predicted by some to miss the top eight. The Newcastle Knights, St. George Illawarra Dragons, and Manly Warringah Sea Eagles are frequently mentioned in discussions about the lower ladder positions.

Team-Specific Previews and Developments

Brisbane Broncos

The defending premiers from 2025 will navigate significant roster changes. Forward Payne Haas is confirmed to depart for the Rabbitohs in 2027, and captain Adam Reynolds will retire after the 2026 season. Other departing players include Selwyn Cobbo, Coby Black, Tyson Smoothy, Jock Madden, Israel Leota, and Kobe Hetherington. Recruits include Jonah Pezet (joining in 2027, playing 2026 at Parramatta), Tom Duffy, Grant Anderson, and Aublix Tawha.

The predicted lineup features Reece Walsh (FB), Ezra Mam (HF), and Ben Hunt (HK). Ezra Mam is expected to return as starting five-eighth, and Ben Hunt will shift to full-time hooker. Concerns exist regarding the age and injury history of the spine players. Coach Michael Maguire, with a 66.67% win record, has a pass mark of a top-two finish. Projections place the Broncos with a ladder ceiling of 1st and a floor of 4th-5th.

Canberra Raiders

The 2025 minor premiers face changes following veteran playmaker Jamal Fogarty's departure. Ethan Sanders, with limited first-grade experience, is expected to fill the No. 7 role. Recruit Coby Black suffered a neck nerve issue in December, affecting movement in one arm and making his availability for the season start improbable.

The predicted lineup includes Kaeo Weekes (FB), Ethan Strange (HF), and Jayden Brailey (HK, new recruit). Coach Ricky Stuart, with a 53.20% win record, has a pass mark of a top-four finish. Their ladder ceiling is 1st and a floor of 7th-8th. The team has historically shown a trend of missing the top eight after a strong season. Jalen Afamasaga recorded a line break and try assist in pre-season.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

The Bulldogs have made consecutive finals appearances in 2024 and 2025, with a third-place finish in 2025. There are no players currently with 100 games for the club as they enter the season. Bailey Hayward moves to full-time hooker, and Leo Thompson is a new recruit in the front row. Reed Mahoney departed for the Cowboys.

The predicted lineup includes Connor Tracey (FB), Matt Burton (HF), and Lachlan Galvin (HF). Coach Cameron Ciraldo, with a 49.33% win record, has a pass mark of a top-four finish. Their ladder ceiling is 1st and floor is 5th-6th. Young halfback Mitchell Woods sustained a hamstring injury, expected to sideline him for one to two months, delaying his Pre-Season Challenge participation. Finau Latu missed trials due to a minor hand injury. Jethro Rinakama (winger) progressed to NSW Cup and NRL debut after scoring in the Pre-Season Challenge.

Cronulla Sharks

The Sharks have made the top eight in 10 of the last 11 seasons, reaching preliminary finals in 2024 and 2025. Addin Fonua-Blake is a new recruit in the front row. No other major player acquisitions have been made for 2026, and Daniel Atkinson has departed.

The predicted lineup includes William Kennedy (FB), Braydon Trindall (HF), and Nicho Hynes (HF). Coach Craig Fitzgibbon, with a 62.86% win record, has a pass mark of a top-four finish. Their ladder ceiling is 3rd-4th and floor is 7th-8th. Liam Ison experienced knee soreness, and Michael Gabrael had a challenging trial performance. Felix Faatilii gained 115 metres from 14 runs in a pre-season challenge.

Dolphins

The Dolphins aim for their first finals berth after finishing 10th and 9th in prior years. Selwyn Cobbo (centre), Daniel Saifiti (front row), and Morgan Knowles (bench) are new recruits. Brad Schneider is also an addition.

The predicted lineup includes Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (FB), Kodi Nikorima (HF), and Isaiya Katoa (HF). Coach Kristian Woolf, with a 52.00% win record, has a pass mark of a top-eight finish. Their ladder ceiling is 4th-5th and floor is 9th-10th. The team displayed strong attacking performance in 2025, ranking ninth highest in Australian rugby league history. Zac Garton scored a try in limited pre-season time. The team is widely predicted to achieve their first top eight finish.

Gold Coast Titans

New coach Josh Hannay has made roster adjustments, including the departure of David Fifita and Reagan Campbell-Gillard, to integrate younger talent. Max Feagai (centre) and Luke Sommerton (bench) are new recruits.

The predicted lineup includes Keano Kini (FB), AJ Brimson (HF), and Jayden Campbell (HF). Coach Josh Hannay, with an interim record of 36.67%, has a pass mark of finishing outside the bottom four. Their ladder ceiling is 7th-8th and floor is 14th-15th. Zane Harrison (halfback, 19) is projected for an NRL debut in 2026, showcasing a quality kicking game and effective ball handling in pre-season. Cooper Bai (lock/middle forward, 19) gained nearly 90 running meters in a pre-season match.

Manly Sea Eagles

Daly Cherry-Evans has departed for the Roosters, replaced by Jamal Fogarty at halfback. Jake Simpkin (hooker), Kobe Hetherington (lock), and Siosiua Taukeiaho (bench) are new recruits. Tom Trbojevic is confirmed to start the season at fullback and will not participate in pre-season trials but will play in a scrimmage against the Dragons.

The predicted lineup includes Tom Trbojevic (FB), Luke Brooks (HF), and Jamal Fogarty (HF). Coach Anthony Seibold, with a 50.00% win record, has a pass mark of a top-eight finish. Their ladder ceiling is 7th-8th and floor is 15th-16th. Young player Joey Walsh has performed strongly in pre-season, creating competition in the halves. Simi Laiafi (prop) gained 181 metres from 17 runs in a pre-season challenge.

Melbourne Storm

The Storm aim for a premiership after two consecutive grand final losses. Sualauvi Fa’alogo takes the full-time fullback role following Ryan Papenhuyzen's departure. Stefano Utoikamanu (front row), Shawn Blore (second row), and Davvy Moale (bench) are new recruits. Eli Katoa and Nelson Asofa-Solomona have departed, and Xavier Coates sustained an Achilles injury.

The predicted lineup includes Sualauvi Fa’alogo (FB), Cameron Munster (HF), and Jahrome Hughes (HF). Coach Craig Bellamy, with a 69.70% win record, has a pass mark of a top-four finish. Their ladder ceiling is 1st and floor is 5th-6th. Sua Fa'alogo's performance at fullback is identified as a critical factor. Rookie Jai Bowden underwent surgery for a right arm injury. Cooper Clarke (prop, 19) recorded three tackle breaks and nearly 80 run meters in a trial.

New Zealand Warriors

The Warriors finished sixth in 2025 despite significant injuries to Luke Metcalf and Mitch Barnett. Alofiana Khan-Pereira (wing), James Fisher-Harris (front row), and Morgan Gannon (bench) are new recruits. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck moves to centre.

The predicted lineup includes Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (FB), Chanel Harris-Tavita (HF), and Luke Metcalf (HF). Coach Andrew Webster, with a 52.63% win record, has a pass mark of a top-eight finish. Their ladder ceiling is 3rd-4th and floor is 10th-11th. Luke Metcalf's injury status and consistent availability are considered a defining factor for the team's season.

Newcastle Knights

The Knights finished last in 2025 with a ten-game losing streak. Dylan Brown (five-eighth), Sandon Smith (halfback), and Trey Mooney (front row) are new recruits. Leo Thompson has departed. Fletcher Sharpe moves to wing.

The predicted lineup includes Kalyn Ponga (FB), Dylan Brown (HF), and Sandon Smith (HF). Coach Justin Holbrook, with a prior Titans record of 37.80%, has a pass mark of finishing outside the bottom four. Their ladder ceiling is 8th-9th and floor is 17th. Stability in the halves combination is considered a key factor for improvement. Cody Hopwood missed trials due to minor niggles.

North Queensland Cowboys

The Cowboys missed the finals for the third time in five years in 2025 due to defensive issues. Reed Mahoney (hooker) and Matt Lodge (bench) are new recruits.

The predicted lineup includes Scott Drinkwater (FB), Jake Clifford (HF), and Tom Dearden (HF). Coach Todd Payten, with a 50.00% win record, has a pass mark of a top-eight finish. Their ladder ceiling is 5th-6th and floor is 14th-15th. Jason Taumalolo's performance and fitness, alongside defensive improvement, are crucial. Reed Mahoney is expected to enhance defensive capabilities. Mason Barber (fullback, 19) debuted on the prospects list after scoring a try in his first trial.

Parramatta Eels

The Eels finished 11th in 2025 but showed strong form late in the season. Brian Kelly (centre), Jonah Pezet (five-eighth), and Jack de Belin (front row) are new recruits, alongside Josh Addo-Carr and Jack Williams. Jonah Pezet is expected to join the Broncos in 2027.

The predicted lineup includes Isaiah Iongi (FB), Jonah Pezet (HF), and Mitchell Moses (HF). Coach Jason Ryles, with a 41.67% win record, has a pass mark of a top-eight finish. Their ladder ceiling is 5th-6th and floor is 10th-11th. The integration of young players and new recruits is a defining factor. Ryley Smith (hooker) made his first-grade debut in 2025. Apa Twidle (fullback) contributed two tries and one try assist in a pre-season win. Lorenzo Talataina (five-eighth/half, 18) produced a line-break assist and 15 tackles in a trial.

Penrith Panthers

The Panthers' four-straight title run ended in 2025 with a preliminary final exit. Jack Cogger returns to a bench utility role, providing spine depth.

The predicted lineup includes Dylan Edwards (FB), Blaize Talagi (HF), and Nathan Cleary (HF). Coach Ivan Cleary, with a 63.35% win record, has a pass mark of a top-four finish. Their ladder ceiling is 1st and floor is 6th-7th. The team's continuity, with 16 of their top 17 players returning, allows a focus on team development. Billy Scott (hooker, 21) was defensively strong in a trial match. Jaxen Edgar (fullback, 18) had limited impact in his first NRL trial.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

The Rabbitohs have missed the finals for four consecutive seasons. Latrell Mitchell moves to centre, and Campbell Graham shifts to wing. David Fifita is a new recruit in the second row. Payne Haas will join the club in 2027.

The predicted lineup includes Jye Gray (FB), Cody Walker (HF), and Jamie Humphreys (HF). Coach Wayne Bennett, with a second stint record of 60.61%, has a pass mark of a top-eight finish. Their ladder ceiling is 6th-7th and floor is 13th-14th. Latrell Mitchell's move to centre is anticipated to increase his game time and is a defining factor for the team. Jayden Sullivan is a leading candidate for the No. 7 role, while Jamie Humphreys has a two-match suspension. Jonah Glover (five-eighth, 20) sustained a broken jaw. Talanoa Penitani (centre) scored a try in pre-season but is expected to be sidelined for eight weeks due to a hamstring injury.

St. George Illawarra Dragons

The Dragons finished 15th in 2025. Clint Gutherson (fullback), Valentine Holmes (centre), Damien Cook (hooker), and Daniel Atkinson (halfback) are new recruits. Keaon Koloamatangi joins in 2027.

The predicted lineup includes Clint Gutherson (FB), Kyle Flanagan (HF), and Daniel Atkinson (HF). Coach Shane Flanagan, with a prior record of 39.58%, has a pass mark of 10th to 12th. Their ladder ceiling is 9th-10th and floor is 17th. The team's ability to convert narrow defeats into victories, potentially aided by Daniel Atkinson, is a key factor. Kade Reed (halfback, 19) scored a try and contributed two try assists in a trial.

Sydney Roosters

The Roosters finished in the top eight in 2025 despite player turnover. Daly Cherry-Evans (five-eighth) and Reece Robson (hooker) are new recruits.

The predicted lineup includes James Tedesco (FB), Daly Cherry-Evans (HF), and Sam Walker (HF). Coach Trent Robinson, with a 62.50% win record, has a pass mark of a top-four finish. Their ladder ceiling is 1st and floor is 5th-6th. Sam Walker's leadership and the team's ability to reduce errors while maintaining attacking prowess are identified as critical factors. Rob Toia (centre) debuted in the NRL after a Pre-Season Challenge appearance and won Dally M Rookie of the Year. Toby Rodwell (halfback, 19) had a solid performance in a pre-season loss.

Wests Tigers

The Tigers finished 13th in 2025. Jarome Luai (five-eighth) and Kai Pearce-Paul (second row) are new recruits, alongside Terrell May and Sunia Turuva.

The predicted lineup includes Jahream Bula (FB), Jarome Luai (HF), and Adam Doueihi (HF). Coach Benji Marshall, with a prior record of 37.50%, has a pass mark of a top-eight finish. Their ladder ceiling is 4th-5th and floor is 12th-13th. Achieving greater consistency, including a three-match winning streak, is seen as a defining factor to end their 15-season finals drought. Heamasi Makasini (centre/wing, 18) scored three tries in a pre-season victory and is predicted as Rookie of the Year by one source. Jared Haywood (hooker, 19) performed off the bench in a trial.

Emerging Talent and Pre-Season Highlights

The Witzer Pre-Season Challenge has showcased several young players expected to make an impact:

  • Zane Harrison (Titans, Halfback, 19): Demonstrated strong kicking and ball handling.
  • Simione Laiafi (Sea Eagles, Prop, 19): Gained significant metres in a trial match.
  • Jalen Afamasaga (Raiders, Halfback): Recorded a line break and try assist.
  • Heamasi Makasini (Wests Tigers, Centre/Wing, 18): Scored multiple tries and made line breaks in a pre-season game.
  • Apa Twidle (Eels, Fullback): Contributed two tries and a try assist in a pre-season victory.
  • Talanoa Penitani (Rabbitohs, Centre): Scored an opening try in a pre-season game.
  • Felix Faatilii (Sharks, Prop): Gained significant metres and broke tackles in a trial.
  • Joey Walsh (Manly Sea Eagles, Halfback, 19): Contributed two try assists and a field goal in a win.
  • Cooper Bai (Gold Coast Titans, Lock/Middle Forward, 19): Recorded high running and post-contact meters with a strong tackle success rate.
  • Coby Black (Canberra Raiders, Halfback, 19): Maintained a top prospect spot despite injury.
  • Mitchell Woods (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, Halfback, 19): Dropped in rankings due to a hamstring injury.
  • Jonah Glover (South Sydney Rabbitohs, Five-eighth, 20): Suffered a broken jaw.

State of Origin Projections

New eligibility rules are set to influence State of Origin selections for 2026.

NSW Blues Projected Team

New eligible players include Addin Fonua-Blake, Victor Radley, Casey McLean, Phoenix Crossland, Jeremy Marshall-King, and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak. James Tedesco is predicted to replace Dylan Edwards at fullback, and Tom Trbojevic is expected on the wing. Mitchell Moses is slated for the five-eighth role, and Blayke Brailey is projected to start at hooker.

  • Predicted Lineup:
    • Fullback: James Tedesco
    • Wingers: Brian To’o, Tom Trbojevic
    • Centres: Stephen Crichton, Latrell Mitchell
    • Halves: Mitchell Moses, Nathan Cleary
    • Front Row: Addin Fonua-Blake, Payne Haas
    • Hooker: Blayke Brailey
    • Second Row: Liam Martin, Angus Crichton
    • Lock: Isaah Yeo (c)
    • Interchange: Reece Robson, Keaon Koloamatangi, Hudson Young, Mitch Barnett

Queensland Maroons Projected Team

New eligible players include Briton Nikora, Jason Taumalolo, and AJ Brimson. Reece Walsh is predicted to return as fullback, with Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow shifting to centres. Reuben Cotter is expected to move to prop, replacing the retired Josh Papalii. David Fifita and Briton Nikora are projected as the new second-row pairing.

  • Predicted Lineup:
    • Fullback: Reece Walsh
    • Wingers: Xavier Coates, Valentine Holmes
    • Centres: Robert Toia, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
    • Halves: Cameron Munster (c), Tom Dearden
    • Front Row: Reuben Cotter, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
    • Hooker: Harry Grant
    • Second Row: Briton Nikora, David Fifita
    • Lock: Patrick Carrigan
    • Interchange: Ezra Mam, Lindsay Collins, Corey Horsburgh, Jeremiah Nanai

League-Wide Developments

NRL Broadcast Deal

The NRL is in discussions for a new television deal, with expectations of a record agreement. Dazn, which acquired Foxtel, is an interested party.

Legal Landscape

The pre-season has included several legal matters:

  • A dispute regarding Zac Lomax's transfer.
  • Ongoing court cases involving Manly.
  • A settlement by the Bulldogs with former player Jackson Topine.
    Corporate law firms are preparing for work related to the broadcast agreement, the collective bargaining agreement (due 2028), and the establishment of new teams like the Perth Bears and PNG Chiefs.

Scheduling

The NRL utilizes AI software for scheduling. Challenges have arisen with the post-Las Vegas schedule, with some teams facing demanding travel schedules following overseas games.

Journalism

Veteran sports journalist Phil Rothfield retired after a 50-year career with News Corp Australia. The South Sydney Rabbitohs have filed a trademark application for the term 'Random Souths guy' to protect associated intellectual property.