2026 NRL Season & State of Origin: A Season of Change and Drama

Season Overview

The 2026 National Rugby League season and State of Origin series have been defined by significant roster upheaval, legal developments, and a tightly contested Origin series that will be decided in a third and final match.

Early contenders included the Canberra Raiders, Cronulla Sharks, Dolphins, and Canterbury Bulldogs, though the Penrith Panthers and Melbourne Storm quickly established themselves as dominant forces.

Team Performance & Roster Changes

Penrith Panthers

The Panthers entered the season without being defending premiers for the first time since 2021.

Despite player turnover, Penrith maintained their core roster with strong recruitment. The off-season saw the re-signing of Jack Cogger for spine depth, with key improvers including five-eighth Blaize Talagi and center Casey McLean.

Melbourne Storm

After consecutive Grand Final defeats, the Storm underwent significant changes. Eli Katoa suffered a head injury, while Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Ryan Papenhuyzen departed. Local fullback Sua Fa'alogo is expected to play his first full season at No. 1.

Major Player Movements

Payne Haas to South Sydney

Payne Haas signed a three-year contract with the South Sydney Rabbitohs, starting next season, after leaving the Brisbane Broncos. The 26-year-old has managed knee, foot, and back injuries in recent years.

Cherry-Evans & Robson to Roosters

Daly Cherry-Evans transferred to the Roosters, joining Blues hooker Reece Robson who also moved to the club. Halfback Sam Walker is expected to retain a primary role, with Cherry-Evans potentially in an auxiliary position.

League Business & Legal Developments

The NRL is in discussions for a new TV deal, with expectations of a record-breaking agreement. Dazn, which acquired Foxtel, is a key interested party.

Pre-season legal matters:

• A dispute regarding Zac Lomax's transfer and whether Parramatta could prevent his move to Melbourne
• Manly involved in two ongoing court cases related to pre-season training treatment
• The Bulldogs settled a matter with former player Jackson Topine
• Corporate law firms preparing for extensive work related to the broadcast agreement, player collective bargaining agreements (due in 2028), and new teams like the Perth Bears and PNG Chiefs

Coaching Changes

• Dean Young appointed interim head coach of St George Illawarra Dragons after Shane Flanagan's departure
• Ben Te'o departed as Broncos assistant coach despite being signed until 2028

State of Origin Series

Game I: NSW Stuns Queensland with Record Comeback

New South Wales defeated Queensland 22-20 in the largest comeback in Origin history at Accor Stadium in Sydney.

Queensland dominated early:

• Led 20-6 in the 56th minute
• Tries through Robert Toia (11th min), Thomas Flegler (14th min), and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (18th min)
• Sam Walker converted all three and added a penalty goal

The turning point: Queensland fullback Kalyn Ponga was sent off in the 57th minute for a high shoulder charge on NSW winger Tolu Koula.

NSW scored 16 unanswered points:

• Ethan Strange – long-range try (63rd min)
• Brian To'o – try (65th min)
• Nathan Cleary – try after 40/20 kick (71st min)
• James Tedesco – winning try in the 79th minute, catching a Cleary bomb (confirmed by Bunker)

New South Wales Blues:

1. James Tedesco, 2. Brian To'o, 3. Stephen Crichton, 4. Kotoni Staggs, 5. Tolu Koula, 6. Ethan Strange, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Addin Fonua-Blake, 9. Reece Robson, 10. Mitch Barnett, 11. Hudson Young, 12. Haumole Olakau'atu, 13. Isaah Yeo (c). Interchange: 14. Cameron Murray, 15. Victor Radley, 16. Jacob Saifiti, 17. Blayke Brailey, 19. Casey McLean, 21. Matt Burton.

Six players made their Origin debut: Tolu Koula, Addin Fonua-Blake, Blayke Brailey, Victor Radley, Ethan Strange, and Casey McLean.

Queensland Maroons:

1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Selwyn Cobbo, 3. Robert Toia, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Jojo Fifita, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Sam Walker, 8. Thomas Flegler, 9. Harry Grant, 10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, 11. Reuben Cotter, 12. Kurt Capewell, 13. Max Plath. Interchange: 14. Briton Nikora, 15. Lindsay Collins, 16. Pat Carrigan, 17. Trent Loiero, 18. Ezra Mam, 19. Gehamat Shibasaki.

• NSW coach Laurie Daley selected James Tedesco at fullback over Dylan Edwards, citing experience and desired style
• Latrell Mitchell withdrew due to a back injury
• Queensland coach Billy Slater selected Kalyn Ponga at fullback, omitting Reece Walsh entirely
• Sam Walker made his Origin debut at halfback, replacing injured Tom Dearden (syndesmosis)

Reece Walsh acknowledged: "I know the standards it takes to play for Queensland and I'm honest with myself. I probably haven't been living up to those standards."

• Blues coach Daley declined to comment on the Ponga send-off
• Daley stated Mitchell Moses is expected to return for Game 2
• Former players Paul Gallen and Brent Read advised Daley to review performance and consider changes
• Tolu Koula missed Manly's next NRL game due to head contact from the Ponga tackle

Game II: Queensland Levels Series with Record Crowd

Queensland defeated New South Wales 44-24 at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, tying the series 1-1. Attendance: 91,761 – a State of Origin record.

• NSW led 12-8 at halftime (tries to Kotoni Staggs in 8th min, Mark Nawaqanitawase in 21st min)
• Queensland scored six tries in the second half
• Selwyn Cobbo scored three tries, becoming the 12th player in Origin history to achieve a hat-trick
• Kotoni Staggs was sin-binned for a high tackle on Kalyn Ponga; during his 10-minute absence, Queensland scored three tries
• NSW made 12 errors compared to Queensland's 4

Queensland Changes:

• Reece Walsh recalled to bench, replacing Ezra Mam
• Pat Carrigan and Gehamat Shibasaki ruled out through injury
• Kulikefu Finefeuiaki joined interchange; Heilum Luki named 20th man
• Briton Nikora started in second row, Reuben Cotter moved to lock
• Murray Taulagi replaced injured Shibasaki on bench

NSW Changes:

• Casey McLean ruled out with quad strain; Mark Nawaqanitawase made Origin debut on wing
• Tolu Koula moved to centres
• Mitchell Moses returned from injury; Ethan Strange moved to bench
• Dylan Lucas replaced dropped Haumole Olakau'atu

• Cameron Murray remained on bench despite calls to start – NSW has trailed significantly in first halves during recent games
• The omission of Haumole Olakau'atu was questioned by former players Willie Mason, Andrew Johns, Brad Fittler, and Michael Ennis

Following the Game II loss, NSW coach Laurie Daley faced scrutiny over selections and bench rotation. Daley stated he would respond to criticism after the series concludes. His contract expires after Origin III.

Players publicly defended Daley: Hudson Young, Reece Robson, Tolu Koula, Mitch Barnett, and Brian To'o expressed support.

Game III Preview: Series Decider

The decider is scheduled for July 8 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Both teams have named squads with significant changes.

• Lindsay Collins ruled out (concussion protocols)
• Pat Carrigan recalled after ankle surgery (fitness to be tested)
• Jeremiah Nanai replaces Kulikefu Finefeuiaki
• Corey Horsburgh named as 20th man

• Brian To'o dropped from squad; Jack Bostock to make Origin debut on wing
• Kotoni Staggs dropped; Stephen Crichton returns at centre
• Bradman Best starts at centre; Tolutau Koula moves to interchange
• Liam Martin returns to starting side, replacing Dylan Lucas
• Haumole Olakau'atu returns to bench
• Blayke Brailey replaces Api Koroisau at hooker

Season Projections & Analysis

Team Outlooks

Brisbane Broncos:
The defending premiers began with two consecutive losses, conceding 66 points. Ezra Mam's return and Ben Hunt at hooker are noted enhancements. Adam Reynolds will retire at season's end. Payne Haas has agreed to join South Sydney for 2027.

Penrith Panthers:
First season since 2021 without being defending premiers. Core roster maintained despite turnover.

Melbourne Storm:
Significant changes after consecutive Grand Final defeats – departures of Papenhuyzen, Pezet, and Asofa-Solomona.

Coaching Pressure

• Todd Payten (Cowboys) and Anthony Seibold (Manly) faced early-season pressure
• Craig Bellamy under pressure after consecutive Grand Final defeats
• Trent Robinson aims to end six-season premiership drought with Cherry-Evans and Robson arrivals
• Benji Marshall aims to end Tigers' longest finals drought since 2011
• Wayne Bennett returned for second stint at Rabbitohs

Player Developments

• Heamasi Makasini (Tigers) – leading candidate for Rookie of the Year after strong pre-season; scored NRL debut try in Round 27 last year
• Dane Gagai (Knights) – seeking to extend career beyond 2027
• Alex Johnston – signed with PNG Chiefs as first player, with South Sydney's blessing

Rule Changes

The NRL introduced new ruck interpretations this season, with increased six-again calls and scoring.

Eligibility rules amended to allow non-Australian internationals to play State of Origin, provided they started junior rugby league in a state before age 13. This affected players including Addin Fonua-Blake, Casey McLean, Victor Radley, and Briton Nikora.

Officiating

NRL head of football Graham Annesley stated referees are not instructed to officiate Origin differently. Referee Ashley Klein officiated his 13th consecutive Origin match. Both coaches defended Klein after a report revealed his previous gambling losses, stating it was unfair for personal matters to be revealed publicly.