United States greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4% in 2025, following two consecutive years of decreases, according to estimates from the Rhodium Group. This rise exceeded the rate of economic growth and was primarily driven by colder early-year temperatures and a surge in electricity demand from data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations. The increased demand, coupled with higher natural gas prices, led to a notable 13% increase in coal use during the year.
Overview of Emission Trends
The 2.4% rise in overall greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 marked the first increase in three years for the United States. This growth in emissions surpassed the rate of economic expansion.
Contributing Factors to the Increase
Several factors contributed to the observed rise in emissions:
- Cold Weather: A cold start to 2025 led to approximately 7% greater consumption of natural gas and other fossil fuels for heating purposes in colder U.S. regions.
- Increased Electricity Demand: The expansion of data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations, particularly in areas such as Texas and the Ohio Valley, significantly increased the demand for electric power.
- Shift to Coal: The combination of heightened electricity demand and increased natural gas prices resulted in a 13% surge in the use of coal. Michael Gaffney, a lead author from the Rhodium Group, noted that the grid primarily met the additional load with fossil fuels, with higher natural gas prices incentivizing a switch to coal. Jesse Lee from Climate Power added that the increased cost of natural gas has made coal economically competitive once more.
This increase in coal use was only the second time in a decade that coal consumption has risen in the U.S., contrasting with a 64% reduction in coal power generation since 2007. To meet the increased demand, electricity companies also delayed the retirement of some coal plants.
Other Energy Sector Developments
While fossil fuel use increased, other energy sectors saw developments:
- Solar Power Growth: Solar power generation experienced substantial growth in 2025, increasing by 34%, its fastest rate since 2017.
- Transport Sector Emissions: Emissions from the transport sector remained relatively stable despite a fifth consecutive year of increased road traffic volumes. This stability is attributed to a growing number of hybrid and electric vehicles, with hybrid vehicle sales rising by 25% compared to 2024.
International Context and Future Outlook
In contrast to the U.S., both India and China experienced decreases in coal use for electricity (3% and 1.6% respectively) during the same period, attributed to the integration of record amounts of wind and solar energy. Michael Gaffney indicated that the demand growth, particularly from data centers and cryptocurrency operations, is expected to continue, suggesting that the increase in coal use observed in 2025 is likely to persist.
Regarding policy impact, Rhodium Group analysts indicated that policies from the Trump administration did not significantly affect the rise in emissions during 2025 but anticipate potential changes in subsequent years. Jesse Lee of Climate Power offered an alternative view, linking the administration's support for natural gas exports and the growth of AI/data centers to the observed increase in emissions.