The China-Australia relationship stabilized following Labor's return to power in 2022. Ahead of 2026, scholars in Australia and China offered insights into the relationship's future. Chinese scholars indicated that a stable relationship does not equate to a friendly one, citing perceived Australian efforts to support the United States in limiting China’s regional influence, particularly in the Pacific. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong's focus on "region, relationships, rules, and resilience" signals Australia's intent to reduce sole reliance on US security. Following US President Donald Trump's return to office, Australia has pursued independent, regionally-led security initiatives. Chinese scholars described Australia’s policies aimed at stabilizing relations with China as pragmatic and realistic, believing Canberra has partially aligned with China’s interests in trade and cooperation. According to Xu Shaoming, an associate professor in international relations at Sun Yat-sen University, the relationship's core remains complex, featuring both cooperation and competition. He emphasized that communication and policy interaction are key determinants for the relationship's strength in 2026.
Key Events in 2025
A Chinese naval fleet conducted live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea and circumnavigated Australia, prompting discussions in Canberra regarding maritime security. US President Donald Trump's election victory contributed to unease among Australian political leaders and strategic experts. During the 2025 federal election, attempts by then-Liberal leader Peter Dutton and the Coalition to characterize China as a threat were unsuccessful. Following the election, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited China in July for the second time, meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing to strengthen economic ties. The leaders agreed to continued cooperation in healthcare innovation, green energy, the digital economy, and services. Albanese also visited Chengdu's panda sanctuary. In November, Zhao Leji, National People’s Congress chairman, visited Canberra, marking the highest-level visit from a Chinese leader since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Persistent Tensions
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers initiated legal action to mandate the divestment of Chinese capital from critical minerals projects. Iron ore trade, a key economic tie, faced challenges due to reduced Chinese demand and Beijing’s interventions in BHP’s shipments. Political and security concerns complicated the relationship, including: China’s opposition to AUKUS, a Chinese fighter jet releasing flares near an Australian plane in the South China Sea in October, and allegations of Chinese hackers targeting Australian critical infrastructure.
Political sensitivities and differing perceptions continue to impact mutual understanding. Chinese scholars expressed disapproval of Australian activities, such as freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, viewing them as involvement in American efforts to contain China’s influence. Chinese commentators often describe Australia as strategically conflicted, balancing economic dependence on China with political alignment with the United States. Foreign Minister Wong has stated that the alliance with the United States remains central to Australia’s and the region’s security. An Australian scholar suggested that the Albanese government has adopted a measured approach to Australia–China relations, seeking to leverage its regional role and improve relations with neighbors amidst global uncertainty.
2026 Outlook
Australian and Chinese scholars anticipate the relationship will remain stable in 2026, with manageable risks. Both nations are expected to express their positions while avoiding escalation. No official reports exist regarding a potential visit by Xi Jinping to Australia in 2026. Strategic frictions continue, exemplified by a Chinese naval flotilla entering the Pacific in December, which raised ongoing concerns about China’s military intentions. Maintaining open communication and mutual understanding is identified as crucial for the relationship's trajectory.