U.S. states are currently engaged in significant redistricting activities, impacting the composition of the U.S. House of Representatives. California voters recently approved a new map for congressional districts that could lead to an increase of five seats for Democrats in the U.S. House. This action follows similar redistricting efforts observed in other states.
Historically, redistricting occurs at the beginning of each decade after the decennial census. However, an accelerated pace of redistricting has been noted across the country, influencing the lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections.
Republican-Led Redistricting Efforts
Several Republican-controlled states have undertaken redistricting. In Texas, new lines have been drawn that could result in five additional seats for Republicans. Similar efforts in Missouri and North Carolina each indicate a potential gain of one seat for the Republican party. Ohio's redistricting could yield a net gain of one to two seats.
Further potential redistricting actions are under consideration in Indiana, Kansas, Florida, and Louisiana, which could collectively add four to five more seats for Republicans. These outcomes remain subject to potential court challenges.
Democratic-Led Redistricting Efforts
Beyond California's potential shift of five seats towards Democrats, additional redistricting activities are underway in other states. In Utah, a sixth seat appears likely to move towards Democrats. Virginia Democrats have initiated a process that could potentially result in two to three seat changes. Maryland and Illinois are also considering redistricting, with each having the potential to add one seat for Democrats, although decisions in these states are not yet finalized.
Overall, Democratic-controlled legislatures are fewer in number compared to Republican-controlled ones, limiting their opportunities for partisan redistricting.
Understanding Redistricting
The U.S. House of Representatives consists of 435 members, with each district representing approximately 760,000 people. Every ten years, the national census determines the number of seats each state receives, and states then draw new district maps.
Gerrymandering refers to the practice of drawing district lines to favor a particular political party or group. While partisan gerrymandering is permissible in many states, it can lead to less competitive districts and potentially a more polarized Congress. Gerrymandering designed to dilute the voting power of a racial group is illegal, often involving "cracking" communities into multiple districts or "packing" them into a single district. In practice, partisan and racial gerrymandering can sometimes overlap.
Political Landscape and Legal Challenges
The ability to redistrict for political advantage often depends on control of the state legislature. Republicans currently hold control in a greater number of state legislatures compared to Democrats. Recent discussions between Republican lawmakers from Indiana and Kansas with former President Trump, alongside considerations in Florida and Louisiana, highlight these efforts.
Not all Republican-controlled states have proceeded with extensive redistricting. Ohio Republicans, for instance, reached an agreement with Democrats for more marginal changes, despite the expiration of current maps. Kansas Republicans have stated they currently lack sufficient votes within their own party to pass new redistricting legislation.
Legal challenges are a significant factor in redistricting. A judge in Texas is reviewing a case following a trial, and Republicans have filed lawsuits in California. Additionally, a case before the U.S. Supreme Court could potentially impact existing laws against racial gerrymandering.
Constraints on Democratic Redistricting
Democrats face more limited options for partisan redistricting. Besides controlling fewer state legislatures, many Democratic-led states have established commissions or complex legal frameworks designed to reduce political influence on the redistricting process. California's recent map approval, for example, required a public vote to proceed outside of the commission's framework.
Other states, such as New York, have constitutional or legal steps that prevent them from completing redistricting within the necessary timeframe for the 2026 elections. Virginia's process, initiated by Democratic lawmakers, requires further votes and public approval. While Illinois and Maryland, both Democratic-led, are considering options, some Democratic-majority states already have very few Republican-held districts, such as Massachusetts, which has nine Democratic representatives in its nine seats.