The Major League Baseball offseason has been marked by several high-profile transactions, including third baseman Alex Bregman signing a five-year, $175 million contract with the Chicago Cubs and left-handed pitcher Ranger Suárez joining the Boston Red Sox on a five-year, $130 million deal. Concurrently, the Arizona Diamondbacks acquired third baseman Nolan Arenado from the St. Louis Cardinals in a trade where the Cardinals assumed a significant portion of Arenado's remaining salary. These moves, among others, are reshaping team rosters, impacting payrolls, and setting strategic directions for the upcoming seasons.
Chicago Cubs Secure Alex Bregman
The Chicago Cubs finalized a five-year, $175 million agreement with free agent third baseman Alex Bregman. This contract, the third-largest in Cubs history, includes a full no-trade clause and no opt-out options. The deal also incorporates $70 million in deferred money. Bregman's average annual value (AAV) of $35 million is the highest in Cubs history and ranks tied for 14th all-time in MLB.
This agreement follows Bregman's decision to opt out of the final two years of his previous three-year, $120 million, heavily-deferred contract with the Boston Red Sox, where he earned $40 million during his single season. The Red Sox had reportedly offered Bregman a five-year, $165 million contract, which included significant deferred payments extending over several decades and did not feature a full no-trade clause, citing organizational policy. Bregman had previously declined a six-year, $171.5 million offer from the Detroit Tigers and a four-year, $115 million offer from the Cubs during the prior offseason. Having rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros in 2024, Bregman joins the Cubs without the team forfeiting a draft pick.
Player Performance and Roster Impact
Bregman, who will turn 32 in March, played 114 games for the Red Sox in 2025, accumulating 495 plate appearances. Despite missing approximately six weeks due to a right quad strain, he posted a .273/.360/.462 batting line, with his offensive production measured at 25% better than average by wRC+. His walk rate increased to 10.3%, and he achieved career bests with a 90.1 mph average exit velocity and a 44.4% hard-hit rate. Defensively, he recorded 3 Outs Above Average at third base, contributing 3.5 fWAR and earning his third career All-Star nomination. His career statistics, since his 2016 debut, include a .272/.365/.481 batting line with 209 home runs and a 133 wRC+.
The acquisition of Bregman affects incumbent Cubs third baseman Matt Shaw, who recorded a .226/.295/.394 line (93 wRC+) and 1.5 fWAR in his rookie 2025 season. Shaw is now expected to transition into a super-utility role. With Dansby Swanson at shortstop and Nico Hoerner at second base, Hoerner's future has drawn speculation as he is eligible for free agency after 2026. The Cubs are expected to retain Hoerner, who has been mentioned in trade discussions during the offseason.
Cubs Offseason Activity and Financial Outlook
Bregman's signing is part of an active offseason for the Cubs. The team previously acquired pitcher Edward Cabrera from the Marlins and rebuilt their bullpen with the additions of Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Caleb Thielbar, Hoby Milner, and Jacob Webb. The Cubs also retained Colin Rea and Shota Imanaga and welcomed back first baseman Tyler Austin from Japan. Additionally, the Cubs acquired Kyle Tucker by trading infielder Isaac Paredes, right-hander Hayden Wesneski, and infielder/outfielder Cam Smith.
The Cubs' projected 2026 payroll now stands at $231 million, a $25 million increase from their 2025 figure of $206 million. The competitive balance tax (CBT) payroll for 2026 is projected at $247.6 million, positioning the Cubs $3.6 million above the first luxury tax threshold. The team did not exceed the CBT in 2025, which would place them in the lightest tax bracket if they exceed the threshold in 2026.
Boston Red Sox Acquire Ranger Suárez
The Boston Red Sox have signed left-handed pitcher Ranger Suárez to a five-year, $130 million contract. The deal reportedly contains no deferrals, opt-outs, or no-trade protection, and a corresponding 40-man roster move is required to finalize the signing.
Pitcher Profile and Roster Impact
Suárez, an former low-profile international signing who earned $8.8 million in his final arbitration year, became a full-time starter in 2022. Over four years, he logged 588 1/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA, a 21.9% strikeout rate, a 7.5% walk rate, and a 50.8% ground ball rate. He also posted a 1.48 ERA in 42 2/3 postseason innings. Concerns regarding Suárez include a downward trend in fastball velocity, from over 93 mph in 2022-23 to 91.3 mph last year, and a history of sporadic lower back issues that have prevented him from reaching 30 starts or 160 innings in any season. The contract surpasses MLBTR's preseason prediction of a five-year, $115 million deal.
This acquisition bolsters the Red Sox's rotation, which was previously anchored by Garrett Crochet and now includes Suárez, Sonny Gray, and Johan Oviedo. The projected rotation includes Crochet, Suárez, Gray, Brayan Bello, and potentially Oviedo, Patrick Sandoval, or Kutter Crawford, with prospects providing additional depth.
Strategic Shift and Financial Implications
Prior to this signing, the Red Sox had focused on acquiring infielders but encountered obstacles with targets such as Alex Bregman, Ketel Marte, and Isaac Paredes. This deal marks Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow's longest free agent contract since taking the role. Before Suárez's acquisition, the Red Sox were reportedly the only MLB team without a free agent signing this winter.
The Red Sox's estimated payroll is now $216 million, with a Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) calculation of $266 million, assuming an even $26 million annual value for Suárez. As second-time CBT payors in 2026, the team faces higher tax rates: 30% over $244 million, 42% over $264 million, and 75% over $284 million. Due to Suárez rejecting a qualifying offer, the Red Sox will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks in 2026 and $1 million in international bonus pool space; the Phillies will receive a compensation pick. The acquisition of Suárez may enable the Red Sox to explore trading some of their pitching depth for an infield upgrade. Potential trade targets include Brendan Donovan, Nico Hoerner, Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, or Jake Cronenworth.
Arizona Diamondbacks Acquire Nolan Arenado in Trade
The Arizona Diamondbacks completed a trade to acquire third baseman Nolan Arenado from the St. Louis Cardinals. As part of the deal, the Cardinals will cover $31 million of Arenado’s remaining $42 million over two years. In exchange, the Diamondbacks sent minor-league right-hander Jack Martinez to the Cardinals.
Player Profile and Roster Adjustments
Arenado, 34 years old, has experienced an offensive decline over the past three years. His intense approach was cited as a factor in the Diamondbacks' interest, aligning with the work ethic of key players such as Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, and Ketel Marte. The Diamondbacks intensified talks for Arenado after withdrawing Marte from the trade market, anticipating Arenado will reduce the offensive burden on the team's younger hitters.
The Diamondbacks plan to provide playing time for Blaze Alexander, Jordan Lawlar, and Tim Tawa in both the infield and outfield, as Arenado and Marte will require rest days. Left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is recovering from knee surgery and is not expected to return before June, creating an open competition in center field involving Alexander, Lawlar, Tawa, Alek Thomas, and Jorge Barrosa. Before acquiring Arenado, the Diamondbacks sought a right-handed hitting first baseman/designated hitter. With Arenado now on the roster, their preference may shift toward a left-handed option, while potentially keeping the DH spot open or utilizing a platoon partner for left-handed hitter Pavin Smith at first base. Former Diamondback Paul Goldschmidt, a right-handed hitter, remains a potential fit, having shown effectiveness against left-handed pitching. The Diamondbacks also signed free-agent right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga to a minor-league contract.
Cardinals' Strategic Transition
The trade signifies the Cardinals' transition away from veteran All-stars, providing opportunities for younger players like Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese, and prospect JJ Wetherholt in the 2026 season. Questions remain regarding the future of arbitration-eligible players such as Brendan Donovan and JoJo Romero. Assuming Donovan is traded, Gorman, Saggese, and Wetherholt, the seventh overall pick in 2024 who can play second or third base, are likely to benefit from Arenado's departure. The Cardinals' agreement to pay $31 million in the Arenado trade follows similar financial contributions in other deals, totaling $59 million for players no longer with the team. The pitcher acquired for Arenado, Jack Martinez, is considered a modest prospect but was known to the Cardinals' scouting staff, with new assistant pitching coach Kyle Driscoll providing positive input.
Free Agent Market and Trade Discussions
Beyond these major transactions, other notable developments and ongoing discussions are shaping the league:
- Kyle Tucker: Tucker's market has seen increased activity. The New York Mets have reportedly extended a short-term offer, potentially valued at up to $50 million annually, while the Toronto Blue Jays have presented a long-term offer. The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees are also monitoring the situation. Tucker, turning 29, is recognized for his offensive capabilities and was a Gold Glove winner in 2022, though his defensive performance in right field has reportedly declined.
- Cody Bellinger: Bellinger, a Boras client reportedly seeking a seven-year deal, remains a primary target for the Yankees, who have resisted his contract demands. His contract negotiations may be influenced by other Boras clients' deals.
- Bo Bichette: Following Bregman's move, Bichette is a potential target for the Red Sox. The Philadelphia Phillies have scheduled a video meeting with Bichette, with the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Toronto Blue Jays also considered potential suitors.
- Red Sox Infield Search: After Bregman's departure, the Red Sox are exploring other infield options, including Bichette, Eugenio Suarez, Isaac Paredes, Brendan Donovan, and Chicago Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner. Acquiring Hoerner would reportedly require a substantial trade package from the Red Sox. The team is also considering strengthening its pitching staff, having discussed acquiring Freddy Peralta from the Milwaukee Brewers and previously meeting with Framber Valdez.
- Yankees and Marlins: The Yankees acquired left-handed pitcher Ryan Weathers from the Miami Marlins for four lower-minors prospects to strengthen their rotation. With pitching needs addressed, the Yankees may now focus on improving their lineup. The Marlins, who previously traded Edward Cabrera to the Cubs, are now expected to prioritize adding an innings-eating veteran starter.
- Mets Offseason Strategy: The Mets are addressing defensive weaknesses identified by opposing coaches and executives. Their primary defensive upgrade has been the acquisition of second baseman Marcus Semien. The Mets' preference for shorter-term deals may be influencing their reluctance to pursue Bellinger.
Scott Boras' Contract Strategy
The contract structures of Alex Bregman and other Scott Boras clients highlight a strategy for securing significant long-term contracts following shorter-term arrangements. Bregman's total earnings, combining his Red Sox and Cubs agreements, reach six years and $215 million, though present-day values are projected lower due to deferrals. This strategy has been observed with other Boras clients, including third baseman Matt Chapman, left-hander Blake Snell, and first baseman Pete Alonso, who each secured larger extensions after initial shorter deals. The outcomes of these deals, including deferrals, are being cited in discussions for other Boras clients such as Cody Bellinger, who is reportedly seeking a seven-year contract.