Geomagnetic storming has been forecast for two distinct periods in January, following separate coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun. Minor to moderate storming was anticipated for January 10-11, while a G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm watch has been issued for January 20 UTC, with varying intensity levels expected around that date.
Mid-January Geomagnetic Storm Forecast
A Minor-Moderate (G1-G2) geomagnetic storm was expected to occur on January 10-11. This forecast followed the detection of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that departed the Sun on January 8. The CME was projected to arrive at Earth during the January 10-11 period.
Late January Geomagnetic Storm Watch Issued
A G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm watch has been issued for January 20 UTC. This watch is a result of a separate coronal mass ejection (CME) arriving at Earth. The CME originated from the Sun on January 18 and was associated with an R3 solar flare from a sunspot region located near the center of the solar disk.
The CME's arrival at Earth is anticipated as early as late January 19 EST to early January 20. Upon its arrival on January 19 EST, geomagnetic storm levels may range from G1-G3 (Minor-Moderate). The passage of this CME is expected to continue through January 20, with conditions likely to weaken later in the day. G1 levels may persist on January 21 due to residual effects. Forecasters report a fair level of confidence regarding the timing and arrival of this CME at Earth.