Four years after the Taliban assumed control of Afghanistan, the nation presents a complex picture of improved security in certain areas alongside a severe humanitarian crisis. The period has been marked by significant human rights restrictions, particularly affecting women and girls, economic pressures, and internal divisions within the governing Taliban leadership. International engagement remains varied, with regional powers increasing ties while many Western nations withhold formal recognition due to governance and human rights concerns.
Afghanistan Four Years On: Security and Governance Overview
Following the Taliban's return to power, security has reportedly improved in many urban and public areas. Residents in places like Kabul have noted a significant decrease in bombings and suicide attacks, and the presence of armed checkpoints has contributed to a perception of reduced crime rates.
Concurrently, Afghanistan faces one of the world's most severe humanitarian crises. This situation is intensified by a combination of reduced international aid, ongoing economic challenges, harsh winters, natural disasters, and the mass return of refugees.
Internally, the Taliban administration has centralized power. Public dissent is suppressed through detentions and arrests, and punishments for crimes such as murder, adultery, and theft have included public execution and physical force.
Humanitarian Crisis and Economic Conditions
Over half of Afghanistan's estimated 42 million people are reliant on humanitarian assistance. The economy has contracted considerably since 2021, leading to an estimated half a million job losses, with more than half the population experiencing food insecurity.
International donor funding has significantly decreased since 2021. This decline is attributed in part to global competing crises and the reluctance of Western nations to engage with the Taliban administration. The United Nations sought $3.1 billion for Afghanistan, but only a fraction of this amount has been funded. The near-total shutdown of the United States Agency for International Development has further exacerbated the situation.
The reduction in aid has led to the closure of over 400 health facilities, affecting access to food and medical care for hundreds of thousands. Doctors have reported preventable deaths among children. At Indira Gandhi Children's Hospital in Kabul, critical care beds for malnutrition are consistently occupied, with examples including two-year-old Usmania and five-month-old Laila suffering from severe malnutrition. The UN estimates 3.5 million Afghan children are malnourished, with 1.7 million at risk of death.
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid stated that aid should not be politicized, claiming the current administration allocates 70% of aid and its own revenue to affected populations, an increase from 30% under the previous government. Mujahid attributed economic challenges to decades of conflict and sanctions, characterizing child malnutrition as a humanitarian rather than a governance issue. He estimated the rate of malnourished children to be "two or three out of a hundred," a figure that differs from UN reports.
Recent mass deportations have seen over 1.5 million Afghans return from Iran and Pakistan. Mujahid described these returns as voluntary and orderly, stating that returnees receive housing, employment, and support. This perspective contrasts with reports from UN agencies, which raise concerns about the additional strain these sudden returns place on the already struggling economy.
Human Rights and Social Restrictions
Human rights, particularly for women and girls, have been severely curtailed. Women are prohibited from visiting public parks, banned from universities and most workplaces, and restricted from education beyond primary school. They are required to cover their faces in public, travel with a male guardian, and avoid speaking loudly outside the home. These restrictions, enforced by the Ministry of Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, have contributed to the loss of family incomes and limited opportunities.
These measures are reinforced by deeply conservative social norms prevalent in some areas, which predated the Taliban's return to power. In many rural areas, women are often restricted from interacting with unrelated men without male relatives present. Mujahid has not provided a timeline for the resumption of girls' secondary education, stating that the decision rests with Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada.
Internal Divisions Within the Taliban Leadership
Reports, including a year-long investigation by BBC Afghan based on over 100 interviews, indicate a division within the Taliban leadership. One faction, loyal to Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada and based in Kandahar, reportedly advocates for a strict Islamic Emirate largely isolated from the modern world, with religious figures controlling society. The second faction, primarily based in Kabul and comprising powerful Taliban members and cabinet ministers, is described as seeking an Afghanistan that engages internationally, builds its economy, and allows women and girls access to education beyond primary school, while still adhering to a strict interpretation of Islam. An insider characterized this dynamic as "the Kandahar house versus Kabul."
Akhundzada became supreme leader in 2016. After the Taliban regained power in August 2021, he reportedly consolidated authority from Kandahar, rather than the capital, Kabul. This included surrounding himself with trusted ideologues and hardliners, granting loyalists control over security, religious policies, and economic sectors. Edicts, such as the ban on girls' education, began to be announced without consultation with Kabul-based ministers, contradicting prior public promises. The ban on women's education and employment remains a primary source of tension between the two groups. Akhundzada is described as becoming more rigid in his religious beliefs, believing his decisions carry divine accountability. He reportedly communicates primarily through gestures in meetings, with elderly clerics interpreting, and meetings with him are difficult to secure, with Kabul-based ministers reportedly needing official invitations to travel to Kandahar. Key departments, including weapons distribution and security forces, have reportedly been moved to Kandahar, centralizing authority there. Mujahid has denied a power transfer to Kandahar, affirming Akhundzada's "absolute power" from a Sharia perspective, with his decisions being final to prevent division.
In late September, Akhundzada ordered a nationwide internet and phone shutdown, citing distrust of internet content. Ministers associated with the Kabul faction reportedly acted against this order, restoring internet access three days later without public explanation. Observers have described this action as a significant challenge to Akhundzada's authority, given the historical emphasis on obedience to the Supreme Leader.
Public statements from faction members have indicated underlying tensions. In December, Sirajuddin Haqqani reportedly criticized governance that "abandons or forgets the same nation," while an Akhundzada loyalist, Neda Mohammad Nadim, emphasized singular leadership in an Islamic government. Mujahid has denied any formal split, describing differences as "a difference of opinion in a family."
International Engagement and Relations
Following the Taliban's return to power, Afghanistan faced initial international isolation. However, regional powers such as China, Russia, and India have since expanded engagement, reopening embassies and increasing trade, thereby recognizing the Islamic Emirate as a political entity.
Many Western nations, including Australia, continue to provide humanitarian assistance but have not formally recognized the Taliban government. Their reasons include concerns over women's rights, governance, and security. Australia has also sanctioned senior Taliban leaders. Mujahid has characterized the lack of international recognition as a failure of Western policy, particularly that of the United States, while affirming strong relationships with China, Russia, and the Islamic world.
Regarding regional security, Mujahid denied allegations that the Taliban provides shelter or support to Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an armed group active in Pakistan. He warned that any Pakistani military strike within Afghanistan would be met with a response, though he asserted the Taliban would not initiate conflict.
Impact of Natural Disasters
In late August, a powerful earthquake in eastern Afghanistan resulted in over 2,200 deaths and thousands of injuries, flattening entire villages. This led to the establishment of temporary camps in districts like Kunar's Nurgal, Chawkay, and Khas Kunar, sheltering thousands of families in canvas tents.
Conditions in these camps are challenging, with cold temperatures exacerbating health issues. Children frequently suffer from coughing, and health workers have warned of pneumonia, measles, and whooping cough. Four young children in one camp reportedly died due to cold exposure.
The earthquake prompted a temporary relaxation of some Taliban rules in conservative areas. Authorities permitted unrelated men to assist in rescue and treatment efforts. Female health workers, accompanied by male guardians, were also allowed to travel into affected regions, providing women with access to female medical professionals for trauma counseling and general healthcare. This temporary clinic is reportedly funded for three more months.