Impact on Relationships and Family Planning
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has significantly altered the social landscape, affecting relationships and family planning decisions, which are contributing to declining marriage and birth rates.
Millions of Ukrainian women have relocated abroad since the 2022 full-scale invasion, establishing new lives and relationships. Concurrently, hundreds of thousands of men are either deployed in the military or living outside the country. For women remaining in Ukraine, the prospect of finding a partner to start a family is increasingly reported as remote.
Challenges in Dating and Commitment
Individuals describe a limited pool of potential partners. Khrystyna, 28, noted fewer men available in cities like Lviv, attributing this to men of fighting age avoiding public spaces due to conscription efforts. She also mentioned that soldiers who have returned from combat often experience trauma.
Daria, 34, identified three categories of men available: those avoiding conscription, soldiers engaged in long-distance relationships with infrequent visits, and men under the conscription age of 25 who retain the ability to leave the country. She stated that none of these options were appealing for building a stable relationship.
For men on active duty closer to the front lines, starting a relationship is often viewed as irresponsible due to the pervasive uncertainty. Ruslan, a soldier in the Kharkiv region, stated that long-term promises to a partner are difficult to make. Denys, a 31-year-old drone operator, echoed this sentiment, citing the daily risk of injury or death as a barrier to making future plans.
Demographic Decline
This disruption has led to significant demographic shifts in Ukraine. The number of marriages has decreased from 223,000 in 2022 to 150,000 in 2024. Ukraine has also experienced a rise in deaths and substantial emigration, with over six million people leaving the country since 2022, according to UN estimates. These factors contribute to a dramatic population decline, which affects the workforce and economic growth.
Oleksandr Hladun, a demographer at Ukraine's National Academy of Sciences, characterized these trends as a "social catastrophe of war." Ukraine's population had already decreased from 52 million in 1992 to 41 million in 2022 before the full-scale invasion.
Birth rates have reached a record low of 0.9 children per woman in 2024, significantly below the 2.1 children needed to maintain the population. While a decline in births is anticipated during wartime, the typical compensatory increase observed after conflicts is limited to about five years. Hladun noted that the longer the war persists, this compensatory effect diminishes, as couples who postpone having children may lose the opportunity. The National Academy of Sciences projects a population of 25.2 million by 2051, less than half of the 1992 figure.
Fertility and Future Planning
Even committed couples face challenges. Olena, 33, a policewoman and military instructor, is undergoing fertility treatments, including egg freezing, due to health issues, with plans for IVF. She described her efforts as a duty for her family and Ukraine.
Dr. Liubov Mykhailyshyn, a gynecologist and clinic director, expressed concern that chronic stress, sleepless nights, and physical/psychological trauma from the war could lead to widespread fertility problems among young Ukrainians, further impacting future birth rates.
Government Response and Long-Term Outlook
The Ukrainian government has proposed strategies to address the demographic crisis, such as affordable childcare and housing. However, their implementation is often hindered by reliance on local authorities rather than centralized funding. Hladun suggested that these state-level efforts might have limited success as long as the dangers of war persist.
A significant return of the 6.5 million Ukrainians living abroad is considered crucial for a rapid population boost. However, the willingness of these individuals to return may depend on Ukraine's ability to regain most of the territory seized by Russia since 2014. The demographic decline is also viewed as a security threat, given Russia's larger population and resources for war.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by the conflict makes future planning feel fragile, with individuals like Daria stating that accepting the possibility of remaining alone is a form of survival.