South Africa is hosting joint naval exercises, named 'Will for Peace,' with China, Iran, and Russia. The week-long drills, which commenced on Friday at South Africa's main naval base in Simon's Town, aim to enhance maritime safety, improve operational capabilities, and ensure the security of shipping routes among participating nations. The exercises are taking place amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and domestic discussions regarding South Africa's foreign policy alignment.
Introduction to the Exercises
Warships from China, Iran, and Russia have arrived in South African waters for the 'Will for Peace' naval exercises. These drills are being held near Simon's Town, located on the Cape Peninsula where the Indian Ocean meets the Atlantic. The exercises, led by China, are scheduled to run for a week. This event marks another instance of South Africa conducting joint naval exercises with China and Russia, following previous iterations named "Mosi" in 2019 and "Mosi II" in 2023. The 2023 exercise had drawn criticism due to its timing, coinciding with the first-year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The current 'Will for Peace' exercise was originally scheduled for November last year as Mosi III but was postponed.
Stated Objectives and Activities
Participating nations have outlined several objectives for the joint drills:
- China's defense ministry stated the drills aim for "joint operations to safeguard vital shipping lanes and economic activities." Activities will include strikes on maritime targets and "counter-terrorism" rescues.
- South Africa's defense force and department indicated the event will allow navies "to exchange best practices and improve joint operational capabilities, which contributes to the safety of shipping routes and overall regional maritime stability." They also specified an "intensive program of joint maritime safety operations, interoperability drills, and maritime protection serials" to ensure "the safety of shipping and maritime economic activities."
- Political analyst Sandile Swana emphasized the objective of enhancing maritime safety, combating piracy, and creating a secure maritime environment.
Participating Nations and Broader Alliance
The confirmed participants in the 'Will for Peace' exercises are South Africa, China, Iran, and Russia. These nations are part of the broader BRICS+ alliance, which initially included Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and later expanded to include South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. The alliance states its aim is to challenge the political and economic influence of Western nations.
Geopolitical Context and International Relations
The naval exercises occur amid existing tensions in South Africa's relationship with the United States. Recent US actions cited in the backdrop include the seizure of Venezuela-linked oil tankers in international waters, some of which were Russian-flagged, citing US sanctions. Moscow criticized these tanker seizures as a violation of international maritime law. The US has also issued warnings regarding Iran's crackdown on mass demonstrations.
Historically, relations between South Africa and the US have experienced strain. The Trump administration previously imposed tariffs and withdrew aid to South Africa, partly linked to accusations concerning the protection of its white minority population. More recently, South Africa's decision to bring a case against Israel to the International Court of Justice has also been cited as contributing to current tensions, with ties between the two nations described by some commentators as being at an "all-time low."
Domestic Perspectives and Official Justifications
The decision to host the drills has prompted varied reactions within South Africa:
- Criticism:
- The Democratic Alliance (DA), South Africa's second-largest political party and a partner in the current governing coalition, expressed opposition to the exercises. DA defence spokesperson Chris Hattingh stated that hosting and training with forces from countries involved in active conflicts and under sanctions, such as Russia and Iran, undermines South Africa's non-aligned foreign policy stance. The DA characterized the drills as a move toward closer military ties with "rogue and sanctioned states."
- Defence analyst Dean Wingrin questioned the military exercises given BRICS+ is primarily an economic alliance.
- Government Justifications:
- South Africa's Deputy Defence Minister Bantu Holomisa stated that the exercises were planned long before current tensions, advising against "panic buttons." He clarified that the nations involved are not South Africa's enemies. Holomisa further stated that the war games provide a valuable training opportunity and boost the morale of the country's defence forces, calling it an "honour" for South Africa to train with "well-equipped countries."
- The African National Congress (ANC), South Africa's ruling party, has stated it views China as an ideological partner and respects Russia for its historical support against apartheid.
- Defence analyst Dean Wingrin also suggested that years of underfunding have diminished South Africa's defence capabilities, making opportunities to exercise with any willing country valuable for training.
Economic Considerations and Potential Implications
South Africa's economy is highly reliant on the US market. US companies operating in South Africa reportedly support over 500,000 jobs, a figure significantly higher than estimates for Chinese companies. The central bank previously warned that new US tariffs could lead to approximately 100,000 job losses in sectors like agriculture and automotive.
Commentators have expressed differing views on the exercise's diplomatic and economic implications:
- Potential for Strain: Defence analyst Dean Wingrin and Professor William Gumede suggested the optics of the exercise could complicate South African trade negotiations and be perceived as a provocation by the US, particularly by the Trump administration. Professor Gumede warned that South Africa risks economic pressure and significant losses if its foreign policy does not adopt a more pragmatic approach towards the US, potentially being negatively impacted by conflicts between major powers. He also noted that the ANC may need to update its foreign policy to align with its new governing coalition partners.
- Limited Further Deterioration: Political analyst Sandile Swana, however, argued that US-South Africa relations are already strained to a point where further deterioration might be limited, and US threats are sometimes temporary. He emphasized that the exercise's objectives of ensuring safe seas for international trade and combating piracy should be universally welcomed.