Federal Royal Commission Announced Amidst Shifting Political Tides

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced a federal royal commission into antisemitism, a decision that follows weeks of significant internal and external pressure, profoundly influenced by the December 14 Bondi Beach attack. This announcement coincides with a turbulent period in Australian politics, marked by declining support for major parties and a notable surge in primary votes for One Nation across federal and state polls. Leadership approval ratings have also seen significant shifts, painting a complex picture of the nation's political landscape.

Federal Inquiry into Antisemitism

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed a federal royal commission into antisemitism, a move reflecting intensified pressure from various stakeholders.

Background and Pressure

The push for a national inquiry gained considerable momentum from multiple fronts:

• A powerful letter, orchestrated by former Victorian Deputy Premier James Merlino and signed by numerous Labor loyalists—including former premiers, union leaders, and activists (both Jewish and non-Jewish)—strongly advocated for a Commonwealth royal commission. The letter highlighted "overwhelming community support" and expressed deep concerns that anti-Jewish hatred was fostering "intellectual and conceptual pre-conditions" for violence, thereby imperiling social cohesion.
• The tragic December 14 Bondi Beach attack, affecting 15 individuals, critically amplified calls for a national inquiry. Prior to this, prominent Jewish leaders, such as Peter Wertheim of the Executive Council of Australian Jewry, had already voiced increasing anxieties about antisemitism in the wake of events in Israel and Gaza.
• The chorus for a national inquiry was joined by a diverse array of voices, including the opposition, families of the Bondi attack victims, legal and business leaders, and former Labor heavyweights.
• Internally, a number of Labor MPs reportedly expressed dissatisfaction over their limited involvement in key decision-making, with some cabinet members suggesting the inner circle was too small. Health Minister Mark Butler, whose family migrated to Australia in the 1870s, played a crucial role as a conduit for community messages to the Prime Minister.

Government's Initial Stance and Reversal

The Albanese government initially resisted calls for a federal inquiry, with Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke suggesting it could heighten social tensions, and Prime Minister Albanese citing unnamed experts who advised against such a move.

• The announcement of a state-based inquiry by NSW Premier Chris Minns placed additional scrutiny on the Commonwealth's position.
• Prime Minister Albanese reportedly began to reconsider his stance over a weekend, with key ministers like Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Butler signaling that calls for an inquiry "came from a good place."
• Concerns were reportedly raised by some advisors that a broad royal commission might inadvertently lead to examinations of sensitive areas like immigration policy, universities, or the ABC, and potentially unfairly target Australia's Muslim community.
• Ultimately, Albanese stated that private meetings with the families of the deceased and survivors in hospital, coupled with significant public sentiment, were the decisive factors in his reversal. He indicated these meetings provided a clearer understanding of the Jewish community's profound sense of insecurity. Victorian Labor MP Josh Burns confirmed conveying "hard truths" from his community to the Prime Minister.

Commission Details and Associated Legislation

The federal government committed to establishing the royal commission within 25 days of the Bondi incident.

• The inquiry will span 12 months, focusing on antisemitism and social cohesion, and will be led by former High Court judge Virginia Bell. Despite some criticism from Jewish leaders, Prime Minister Albanese maintained her appointment.
• The inquiry is expected to include confidential sessions to prevent prejudicing ongoing criminal trials, with its precise mechanics yet to be finalized.
• As part of a comprehensive package, the government also announced a review of hate speech laws and enhanced gun controls. Notably, it reversed its initial intention to combine proposed gun laws and hate speech legislation, opting to split them after initial political support waned.

Political Landscape and Polling Data

The period surrounding the inquiry announcement witnessed significant shifts in both federal and state political support, with numerous polls indicating a decline in primary votes for major parties and a notable surge for One Nation.

Federal Leadership Ratings and Public Perception

• Net Approval/Likeability: Albanese's net approval and likeability scores declined across multiple surveys. Resolve (Jan 12-16) reported a fall from +6 to -22 in net performance and +9 to -15 in net likeability. Newspoll (Jan 12-15) indicated an 11-point decline to -11, marking his lowest since April. Guardian Essential (Jan) showed approval at 39% with 53% disapproval. YouGov/Sky News Pulse (Feb 3-10) recorded approval at 38% and disapproval at 56%. Resolve (Mar 9-14) showed a net score of -17 points. Essential (last week Feb) reported a 3% increase in approval to 43%, with disapproval down 5% to 48%. Newspoll (Feb 23-26) showed a net approval of -15, a five-point drop.
• Preferred Prime Minister: Albanese generally maintained a lead over Opposition leaders, though the margin varied. Resolve (Jan 12-16) showed his lead over Sussan Ley shrinking from 33% to 29%. Newspoll (Jan 12-15) reported a 51-31 lead over Ley. Resolve (Mar 9-14) showed a 35% to 31% lead over Angus Taylor, with 34% undecided.

• Sussan Ley: Resolve (Jan 12-16) indicated 53% of respondents rated her response to the Bondi attack as good. Her net approval increased by one point to -28 in Newspoll (Jan 12-15). YouGov/Sky News Pulse (Feb 3-10) showed her approval decreasing to 22%. Her final net likeability in Resolve (Feb 8-14) was -11, and her final net performance score before her ouster was -23 (Resolve, Mar 9-14).
• Angus Taylor: Following his appointment as Liberal leader, Taylor's initial ratings were noted. Resolve (Feb 8-14) recorded a +3% likeability rating. DemosAU (Feb 16-20) reported an initial net positive rating of -4, up 14% from Ley. Fox & Hedgehog (Feb 17-19) showed an initial net approval of +3. YouGov-Sky News Pulse (Feb 17-24) showed Taylor debuting at 33% approval. Resolve (Mar 9-14) reported his net performance score as +9 percentage points.

• Pauline Hanson recorded net likeability ratings ranging from -5 (YouGov, Jan 20-27) to +7 (Resolve, Feb 8-14) and +9 (Fox & Hedgehog, Feb 17-19).

Federal Primary Vote Trends

Multiple polls indicated a decline in primary vote support for both Labor and the Coalition, consistently accompanied by a significant rise in support for One Nation.

• Labor's Primary Vote: Ranged from 28.5% (Roy Morgan, last week Feb) to 33% (Freshwater, Jan 16-18). The most recent Resolve poll (Mar 9-14) indicated a fall of 3 percentage points to 29%, its lowest in a year.
• Coalition's Primary Vote: Experienced drops across various polls, reaching a record low of 20% in Newspoll (Jan 12-15) and 19% in YouGov/Sky News Pulse (Feb 3-10). Resolve (Feb 8-14) showed the Coalition at 20% under Sussan Ley and 23% under Angus Taylor. Resolve (Mar 9-14) reported a decrease of 1 percentage point to 22%.
• One Nation's Primary Vote: Demonstrated a consistent increase, reaching 22% in Newspoll (Jan 12-15), 25% under Ley in Resolve (Feb 8-14), 28% in YouGov/Sky News Pulse (Feb 3-10) and DemosAU (Feb 16-20). Resolve (Mar 9-14) recorded a 2 percentage point increase to 24%, remarkably exceeding the Coalition's support.
• Greens and Independents: Generally maintained their support or saw slight increases. Resolve (Mar 9-14) reported the Greens at 12% and Independents at 8%.
• Combined Support: Resolve (Mar 9-14) reported that 50% of voters indicated support for parties other than the major parties, including One Nation, the Greens, or independents.

Federal Two-Party Preferred (2PP)

Labor generally maintained a lead over the Coalition, though the margin varied and, in some cases, narrowed.

• Newspoll (Jan 12-15) showed Labor leading 55-45. Resolve (Jan 12-16) reported a narrowing to 52-48 in Labor's favor.
• YouGov (Jan 20-27) indicated Labor led One Nation 57-43 and the Coalition 55-45.
• Fox & Hedgehog (Feb 17-19) showed respondent preferences resulting in a 51-49 lead for Labor over the Coalition.
• Essential (last week Feb) reported the Coalition holding a 48% to 47% lead over Labor when including undecided voters, a notable first such lead in approximately a year.
• Roy Morgan (last week Feb) recorded Labor's lead over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences shifting from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44.

Key Voter Concerns and Other Insights

Several polls highlighted the primary concerns of the electorate and public sentiment surrounding recent events.

• Cost of Living: Consistently identified as the primary policy priority by a majority of respondents (e.g., 92% in Resolve, Feb 8-14; 45% in DemosAU, Feb 16-20; 43% in Resolve, Mar 9-14). Housing and rental prices were specifically mentioned by 11% of those concerned about the cost of living (Resolve, Mar 9-14).
• Immigration: Cited as a concern by 10% (Resolve, Feb 8-14) to 13% (DemosAU, Feb 16-20) of respondents. Polls consistently showed 64-65% believing current immigration levels are too high (YouGov, DemosAU). Fox & Hedgehog (Feb 17-19) indicated a significant 59-17% support for an immigration ban from "high-risk" areas.
• Public Support for Measures: Following the Bondi attack, a Guardian Essential poll (Jan) reported strong support for banning public display of terrorist symbols (73%), stronger gun laws (63%), more police powers to curb protests (62%), and new hate speech laws (60%). Public support for a Commonwealth royal commission into antisemitism increased from 48% in December to 61% in January (Resolve) and was at 56% (Guardian Essential).
• Social Cohesion: Guardian Essential (Jan) reported that 70% believed there was tension between different races and nationalities in Australia, and 69% believed people were hesitant to express their beliefs due to fear of being labeled racist.
• Preference Flows: Analyst Kevin Bonham noted (YouGov, Jan 20-27) that in the Senate, Coalition preferences favored One Nation over Labor (75.6-24.4), while Greens preferences were stronger for Labor against One Nation. RedBridge/Accent poll (Feb 23-27) further indicated that Liberal voters favored One Nation 72-28, and Greens voters favored Labor 89-11.

State-Level Polling Overview

Polling data also revealed significant shifts in state political landscapes, with One Nation making notable entries or gains in several states.

• South Australia (Ahead of March 21 State Election):

  • Newspoll (Feb 11-17) showed Labor at 44% primary vote, One Nation at 24%, and Liberals at 14%.
  • YouGov (Feb 6-17) reported Labor at 37%, One Nation at 22%, and Liberals at 20%. Labor led One Nation 60-40 and Liberals 59-41 in two-party preferred.
  • Premier Peter Malinauskas consistently registered high net approval ratings (e.g., +40 Newspoll, +36 YouGov).

• Victoria (Ahead of Late November Election):

  • Morgan SMS (Feb 13-16) indicated One Nation leading with 26.5% of the primary vote, followed by Labor at 25.5% and the Coalition at 21.5%. Labor led One Nation 52.5-47.5 and the Coalition 52-48.
  • Resolve (Jan/Feb) showed the Coalition at 30%, Labor at 28%, and One Nation at 11%.
  • Premier Jacinta Allan recorded dismal net approval ratings (e.g., -37 Morgan, -37 Resolve).

• Queensland:

  • Resolve (Jan/Feb) showed the Liberal National Party (LNP) at 34% of the primary vote, Labor at 26%, and One Nation at 16%. Estimated an LNP lead of 54.6-45.4 over Labor after preferences.
  • DemosAU & Premier National (Feb 10-20) reported the LNP at 34%, Labor at 28%, and One Nation at 21% (up 7%). The LNP led Labor 56-44 after preferences.
  • LNP Premier David Crisafulli maintained strong net likeability (e.g., +21 Resolve, +16 DemosAU).

• Tasmania:

  • EMRS quarterly poll (Feb 16-19) for state voting indicated the Liberal party at 29% support, Labor at 23%, and One Nation debuting at 14%.
  • One Nation's Tasmanian representative stated the party was nearing submission of its application for state-level registration.
  • EMRS federal poll (Feb 16-19) for Tasmania showed Labor at 30% primary vote, One Nation at 24%, and Liberals at 18%.

Other Related Developments

• Anthony Albanese's 30 Years in Parliament: Prime Minister Albanese marked 30 years since his election to parliament in 1996. His political journey has been noted, with critics within the Labor party raising concerns about the pace of social reform and foreign policy decisions. He has consolidated control within the Labor party, with his faction holding a majority in caucus.
• Victorian By-election: A Victorian by-election for the Mornington Peninsula seat of Nepean is set to occur following the resignation of Liberal MP Sam Groth.
• Farrer By-election: The Liberal Party pre-selected Albury councillor and lawyer Raissa Butkowski as its candidate for the Farrer by-election scheduled for May 9.