Political Landscape Shifts: Federal Polling & South Australian Election Analysis

Federal Polling (March - April 2026)

Multiple national polls conducted in March and April 2026 show a fragmented primary vote landscape, with Labor and One Nation competing for the lead.

YouGov / Sky News Pulse Poll (March 31 - April 7)

A national YouGov poll with a sample of 1,500 respondents reported the following primary votes:

Primary Vote: Labor 30%, One Nation 25%, Coalition 20%, Greens 13%

• Labor: 30% (up 1 point)
• One Nation: 25% (down 2 points)
• Coalition: 20% (up 1 point)
• Greens: 13% (steady)
• Independents: 6% (steady)
• Others: 7% (up 1 point)

Respondent preferences indicated Labor holding a 55–45 lead over both the Coalition and One Nation.

• Anthony Albanese: Approval 39% (up 1), Disapproval 55% (down 2). Net approval -16.
• Angus Taylor: Approval 38% (up 4), Disapproval 39% (down 3). Net approval -1.
• Preferred Prime Minister: Albanese leads Taylor 44–36.

• 77% of respondents expected energy costs to increase.
• 63% expected an increase in unemployment.

Roy Morgan Polls

A sample of 1,562 respondents showed:

Primary Vote: Labor 30%, One Nation 23.5%, Coalition 22.5%

• Two-Party Preferred (respondent preferences): Labor leads Coalition 56.5–43.5
• Two-Party Preferred (2025 election flows): Labor leads Coalition 54.5–45.5

A sample of 1,411 respondents showed:

Primary Vote: Labor 30.5%, Coalition 24%, One Nation 21.5%

• Two-Party Preferred (respondent preferences): Labor leads Coalition 56–44
• Two-Party Preferred (2025 election flows): Labor leads Coalition 53.5–46.5

A sample of 2,514 respondents indicated:

• Fuel Excise Cut: 83% supported, 17% opposed.
• Fuel Shortage Management: 64% dissatisfied with government management, 36% satisfied.

Newspoll Aggregate Data (January - March)

Aggregate data from four Newspolls (overall sample: 4,927) showed primary vote changes compared to the October-November aggregate:

One Nation surges 11 points to 25%; Labor down 4 points to 32%

• Labor: 32% (down 4 points)
• One Nation: 25% (up 11 points)
• Coalition: 20% (down 5 points)
• Greens: 12% (steady)
• Others: 11% (down 2 points)

• Queensland: One Nation 30%, Labor 27%, Coalition 23%, Greens 11%
• New South Wales: Labor 31%, One Nation 27%, Coalition 18%, Greens 12%
• Victoria: Labor 32%, Coalition 22%, One Nation 21%, Greens 14%
• Western Australia: Labor 34%, One Nation 27%, Coalition 20%, Greens 9%
• South Australia: Labor 39%, One Nation 27%, Coalition 13%, Greens 12%

• No tertiary education: One Nation 34%, Labor 27%, Coalition 19%, Greens 12%
• TAFE education: One Nation 30%, Labor 29%, Coalition 19%, Greens 10%
• University-educated: Labor 36%, Coalition 21%, One Nation 17%, Greens 13%

Polling of Teal-Held Seats

uComms polls for the Australia Institute (March 17-19, N=1,040-1,190) in three teal-held seats reported:

Teal incumbents lead in Mackellar and Wentworth; Kooyong a tie

• Kooyong: Monique Ryan (Teal) and Liberals tied at 50–50
• Mackellar: Sophie Scamps (Teal) led Liberals 56.7–43.3
• Wentworth: Allegra Spender (Teal) led Liberals 59.4–40.6

South Australian State Election (March 21)

The South Australian state election resulted in a majority government for the Labor Party.

Lower House (House of Assembly) Results

Final Seat Distribution: 47 seats

Labor 34, Liberals 5, One Nation 4, Independents 4

• Labor: 34 seats (up 7)
• Liberals: 5 seats (down 11)
• One Nation: 4 seats (up 4)
• Independents: 4 seats (steady)

Statewide Primary Votes:

• Labor: 37.5% (down 2.5% since 2022)
• One Nation: 22.9% (up 20.3%)
• Liberals: 18.9% (down 16.7%)
• Greens: 10.4% (up 1.3%)
• Independents: 5.5% (down 1.9%)
• Others: 4.8% (down 0.4%)

Key Seat Outcomes:

• Finniss: Independent Lou Nicholson won from fourth place on primary votes after preference distribution, defeating the Liberals 55.2–44.8
• Narungga: A recount was triggered due to the close margin

Upper House (Legislative Council)

• Projected Final Composition: Labor 10, Liberals 6, One Nation 3, Greens 2, Independent 1
• Vote Shares: Labor 36.8%, One Nation 24.6%, Liberals 17.5%, Greens 10.2%, Legalise Cannabis 2.4%

Narungga Recount: Discovery of Uncounted Ballots

Following the election declaration in Narungga, the Electoral Commission of South Australia discovered ballot papers that had not been included in the initial count.

Discovery

The commission found 77 unopened absent ordinary ballot papers and four declaration ballot papers in three sealed boxes returned from the neighboring district of Stuart. The ballots were among 642 votes found. Acting commissioner Leah McLay stated the commission has not investigated the cause of the error.

Actions

The commission ordered a further count of the 81 Narungga ballots to determine if including them would have changed the declared result. The new count took place on Friday.

Acting commissioner McLay stated that if the count revealed the election result could change, the commission would seek legal advice about petitioning the Court of Disputed Returns.

Outcome of the Recount

The count of the 81 previously uncounted ballots resulted in:

• 46 votes for One Nation candidate Chantelle Thomas
• 30 votes for Liberal candidate Tania Stock
• 1 ballot rejected
• 4 ballots deemed informal

The commission stated that had these ballots been included in the original count, Thomas's margin of victory would have increased from 58 votes to 74 votes. One Nation state leader Cory Bernardi has been meeting with independents regarding potential parliamentary arrangements.

Responses

• Liberal leader Ashton Hurn said the electoral commission "have some explaining to do" and called for clarity.
• Liberal candidate Tania Stock stated she had not received official notification about the discovery and said any further votes needed to be counted and scrutineered according to required procedures.
• Deputy Premier Kyam Maher announced the government would conduct an independent review of the election and voters' experiences. He stated there was no suggestion of interference or tampering with the ballots.
• One Nation MP Carlos Quaremba said he was pleased the matter was resolved and welcomed an independent review.