South Australian Election and National Polling: One Nation Surges, Labor Secures Majority

South Australian Election 2026: Labor Surges, One Nation Shocks Liberals

The South Australian state election held on March 21, 2026, resulted in a majority for the Labor Party, which won 34 of 47 lower house seats. One Nation made significant gains, securing four lower house seats and three upper house seats, while the Liberal Party's representation fell to five seats.

Nationally, opinion polls throughout the year have shown a substantial increase in support for One Nation, often placing it ahead of or in competition with the Coalition for second place in primary vote preferences.

South Australian State Election Results

The Labor government, led by Premier Peter Malinauskas, retained government with an increased majority. Final results for the 47-seat lower house show Labor with 34 seats (a gain of 7), the Liberal Party with 5 seats (a loss of 11), One Nation with 4 seats (a gain of 4), and Independents with 4 seats (unchanged).

Statewide Primary Votes (Lower House):

• Labor: 37.5% (down 2.5% from 2022)
• One Nation: 22.9% (up 20.3%)
• Liberals: 18.9% (down 16.7%)
• Greens: 10.4% (up 1.3%)
• Independents: 5.5% (down 1.9%)
• Others: 4.8% (down 0.4%)

One Nation secured victories in the seats of Ngadjuri, Hammond, MacKillop, and Narungga. The Narungga result was initially declared for One Nation candidate Chantelle Thomas by a margin of 58 votes after a recount. A subsequent discovery of 81 uncounted ballot papers led to a further count, which increased Thomas's winning margin to 74 votes.

Upper House Results (Legislative Council):
The upper house vote resulted in Labor winning 5 seats, One Nation winning 3 seats, the Liberals winning 2 seats, and the Greens winning 1 seat. The final upper house vote shares were Labor 36.8%, One Nation 24.6%, Liberals 17.5%, Greens 10.2%, and Legalise Cannabis 2.4%.

Key Seat Outcomes:

• Labor gained the seats of Colton, Hartley, Morialta, and Unley from the Liberal Party.
• Independent Lou Nicholson won the seat of Finniss from the Liberal Party.
• Several seats, including Labor-held Light and Liberal-held Morphett, Heysen, and Stuart, required extended preference counting.

Discovery of Uncounted Ballots in Narungga

After the official declaration of the Narungga result, the Electoral Commission of South Australia discovered 81 unprocessed ballot papers. These were 77 ordinary and 4 declaration votes that had been cast at a Port Pirie early voting centre in the neighboring district of Stuart. The ballots were found in sealed boxes that had not been sent for the standard "absent exchange" process.

Following a count of these votes on April 3, 2026, the commission stated that One Nation candidate Chantelle Thomas received 46 votes, Liberal candidate Tania Stock received 30, one vote was rejected, and four were deemed informal. The inclusion of these ballots would have increased Thomas's winning margin from 58 to 74 votes. The commission said it would review its procedures and the South Australian government announced an independent review of the election's administration.

"The discovery of 81 uncounted ballots in a sealed box raises serious questions about election administration in this state." — Political Analyst

National Political Polling Trends

Throughout 2026, multiple national polls have recorded a significant rise in support for One Nation, often placing it ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition in primary vote terms. Polling data provides the following snapshots of voter intentions.

Snapshot of National Primary Vote Polls (2026):

Key Polling Observations:

• A Resolve poll from mid-June showed One Nation leading Labor 29% to 28%, with the Coalition at 20%. Pauline Hanson led as preferred Prime Minister with 33% against Anthony Albanese (29%) and Angus Taylor (16%).
• A YouGov/Sky News Pulse poll from late June gave One Nation a primary vote of 30%, ahead of Labor (29%) and the Coalition (17%).
• The Coalition's primary vote has reached record lows in several polls, with the party frequently polling in third place.
• Labor has maintained a lead on a two-party-preferred basis in nearly all polls, though the margin has varied.

Voter Sentiment and Demographics

A Resolve Political Monitor poll in late January showed 42% of voters stating they would cast their primary vote for a party other than Labor or the Coalition. Analyses of polling data indicate One Nation is attracting support from voters across multiple demographics.

Demographic Trends:

• Age: One Nation has shown strong support among older voters (Gen X and Baby Boomers) while also making inroads with younger demographics.
• Education: The party polls higher among voters without tertiary education.
• Geography: One Nation has performed strongly in rural and regional areas.

Voter Motivations:
A YouGov poll in late February asked One Nation voters their primary reasons for support:

• "No confidence in major parties": 42%
• "Enthusiasm for One Nation policies": 33%
• "Admiration for Pauline Hanson's leadership": 21%

"This is a protest vote of historic proportions. Voters are abandoning the major parties in droves." — Election Analyst

South Australian Pre-Election Polling

Multiple polls ahead of the March 21 election predicted Labor's victory and the rise of One Nation. The polls were largely accurate in forecasting the primary vote shares, with some variation between firms.

Preference Flow Dynamics

The distribution of preferences was a critical factor in determining outcomes in several electorates. In seat-level contests where One Nation was the main challenger, Labor preferences typically flowed to Liberal or Independent candidates. In contests where the Liberal candidate was eliminated, their party's preferences generally flowed to One Nation.

Analysis of preference flows from the 2025 federal election and state election data indicated:

• Liberal voters were more likely to preference One Nation over Labor.
• Greens voters overwhelmingly preferenced Labor over One Nation.
• Labor's decision to preference One Nation last in the South Australian election was a strategic factor in several seat outcomes.