A Nation in the Grip of an Historic Drought
More than 61% of the contiguous United States is currently experiencing drought—the highest level recorded for this time of year since monitoring began in 2000.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, March 2025 was the third-driest month on record, following only July and August 1934 during the Dust Bowl. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Palmer Drought Severity Index also recorded its highest March level since records began in 1895.
Geographic Distribution
The drought is not confined to one region; it is a national crisis.
- Southeast: 97% of the region is experiencing drought conditions.
- West: Two-thirds of the Western United States is in drought.
- South: A separate drought pattern, attributed to the jet stream, affects the region from Texas to the East Coast.
Snowpack and Water Supply: A Crisis in the West
The Western United States is experiencing a severe snow drought. Snow cover across the West is approximately one-third of its typical level for this period, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Oregon, Colorado, and Utah have reported their lowest statewide snowpack levels since the early 1980s.
Key measurements from April 1 paint a dire picture:
- California's Sierra Nevada: 4.9 inches of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), representing 18% of the average.
- Colorado River headwaters: Just over 4 inches of SWE, or 24% of the average—less than half of the previous record low.
- Great Basin: 16% of average.
- Lower Colorado region: 10% of average.
- Rio Grande: 8% of average.
Snowpack in the upper Colorado River watershed is at 22% of average, the smallest on record. Parts of the West, including New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, and Utah, have record-low snowpack levels.
Meteorological Context: Heat and Atmospheric Thirst
Record heat in the West has contributed to exceptionally low snowpack levels, which typically store water for summer use. A climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center stated that a jet stream pattern keeping storms further north is connected to the Southern drought. Federal forecasters indicated that an unusually warm winter is driving the conditions, with unseasonable weather setting new records across the region.
The vapor pressure deficit, a measurement of atmospheric moisture absorption, was recorded at 77% above normal in the West from January through March, exceeding the previous record for that period by more than 25%. A UCLA hydroclimatologist stated this level of moisture absorption was previously considered improbable.
A March heatwave resulted in more than 1,500 monthly high-temperature records being broken. A climate scientist described the event as "likely among the most statistically anomalous extreme heat events ever observed in the American south-west."
NOAA calculated that breaking the drought in eastern Texas would require 19 inches of rain in one month, while most of the Southeast would require more than a foot of rain.
Colorado River Negotiations: A Strained Lifeline
The Colorado River supplies water to approximately 35-40 million people in seven states, 5.5 million acres of farmland, 30 tribal nations, and parts of Mexico. Agriculture accounts for about 80% of the river's water supply. Currently, Lake Mead is 31% full and Lake Powell is 24% full.
Negotiators for California, Arizona, and Nevada announced a plan to reduce water use over two years, aiming to stabilize reservoir levels through 2028. The plan identifies more than 3.2 million acre-feet of water cutbacks. California will reduce its Colorado River water use by approximately 13% in 2027 and 2028. Arizona and Nevada agreed to larger cutbacks. The reductions are contingent on federal and other funding.
The three states negotiated the short-term deal after failing to reach a long-term agreement with the other four states—Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico. The seven states missed a second deadline set by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Arizona, California, and Nevada have proposed decreasing their allocations by 27%, 10%, and 17% respectively. If no consensus is reached, the federal government could intervene.
Official Statements
"Drought conditions have been increasing steadily during the calendar year. Such widespread spring drought is uncommon."
— Brian Fuchs, climatologist, National Drought Mitigation Center
"Fire activity responds to heat and drought in an exponential manner. The current conditions are a combination of natural variability and human-caused climate change, with natural variability being a slightly larger factor."
— Park Williams, UCLA hydroclimatologist
"All weather is now affected by climate change. Current conditions align with expected patterns of extreme heat and intense drought."
— Kathy Jacobs, director, Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions, University of Arizona
"The record-shattering March heat will likely decimate the 2025-26 water year snowpack across nearly all of the American West."
— Daniel Swain, climate scientist
Water Resource and Agricultural Concerns
Some municipalities have initiated early water restrictions. Salt Lake City, Utah, requested residents and businesses to conserve water, aiming for a 10 million gallon reduction, while city facilities will cut 10% of their usage. Colorado has local orders limiting lawn watering, and Wyoming residents were warned of potential outdoor irrigation restrictions as early as May.
Water supply forecasts suggest shortages could be imminent. Lake Powell could reach its lowest levels since the 1960s, posing a risk of "deadpool" where water cannot pass through dams.
Wildfire Risk
More than 1.5 million acres have already burned across the US this year, exceeding double the 10-year average. The National Interagency Fire Center warned of a higher-than-normal potential for significant fires in parts of the Southwest later in the spring. Experts suggest that the snow drought could lead to an earlier start to the wildfire season, as earlier snowmelt exposes the ground to warmer temperatures, accelerating the drying of soils and vegetation.
Economic Impacts
Winter sports businesses have reported financial losses due to customer cancellations caused by insufficient snowfall. Brad Riesenberg, an owner at Backcountry Snowmobiling in Park City, Utah, described this winter as among the worst he has witnessed in over 20 years in the industry.
Future Outlook
Meteorologists predict wetter, cooler weather across the West this week, including some snow. However, scientists express limited optimism that the new snow will be sufficient to reverse the deficits. A strong El Niño weather pattern is predicted, which can reduce crop yields in other global regions.