A complex sequence of events unfolded involving Iran, the United States, and Israel from late December 2025 through early April 2026, encompassing a major domestic protest movement, a subsequent military conflict, leadership changes within Iran, and a negotiated ceasefire.
Overview
The period began with widespread anti-government protests in Iran in late December 2025, met with a severe security crackdown resulting in thousands of reported fatalities. These protests were followed by a joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, code-named "Operation Epic Fury," which began on February 28, 2026. The conflict led to the reported death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, significant damage to Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, and casualties on all sides. Following intense fighting, a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan came into effect in early April 2026.
Internal Unrest in Iran (Late December 2025 – January 2026)
Origins and Escalation
- Protests began on December 28, 2025, initially triggered by the collapse of the Iranian rial and broader economic hardship.
- The demonstrations rapidly escalated into nationwide anti-government protests, spreading across all 31 provinces and becoming the most significant challenge to the government in decades.
- The Iranian government implemented a near-total internet and communications blackout.
Government Crackdown and Casualties
- Iranian security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Basij volunteer arm, responded with force to suppress the demonstrations.
- Reports on fatalities vary significantly. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported figures exceeding 7,000 deaths, while the Iranian government reported over 3,000. Other sources suggested a higher number.
- Tens of thousands of individuals were reportedly arrested. Legal authorities threatened demonstrators with charges carrying the death penalty.
- Reports and alleged executions emerged, drawing international condemnation. US President Donald Trump issued warnings against the killing of protesters.
The US-Israeli Military Campaign and Regional Escalation
Commencement of Hostilities
- On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel initiated a major military campaign, "Operation Epic Fury," targeting military, nuclear, and infrastructure sites across Iran.
- US President Donald Trump characterized the action as "major combat operations."
Key Events and Impacts
- Leadership Decapitation: An Israeli airstrike on a leadership compound in Tehran resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with other senior military and political officials.
- Civilian Casualties: The conflict resulted in significant civilian casualties across Iran and the region.
- A strike on the Shajareh Tayyebeh Girls' School in Minab, southern Iran, killed over 160 people, mostly children. A preliminary US military investigation concluded the strike was a "targeting error" by US forces due to outdated intelligence.
- Total civilian deaths in Iran were reported by the Iranian Red Crescent to be over 1,000. HRANA reported thousands of civilian deaths.
- Nuclear and Military Infrastructure: The US and Israel conducted strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including the Natanz enrichment site, and missile production and naval capabilities. US officials claimed Iran's ability to build missiles was severely degraded.
- Iranian Retaliation: Iran responded with missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, US military bases in the region, and civilian infrastructure in Gulf states such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain.
- US Military Casualties: The US reported several service member fatalities from Iranian retaliatory strikes.
- Geographic Spread: The conflict expanded beyond Iran's borders, with strikes and counter-strikes occurring in Iraq, Lebanon, and the broader Persian Gulf region.
Internal Political Changes in Iran
- Following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Assembly of Experts convened to select a successor.
- They elected Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader, as the country's new Supreme Leader.
- Reports emerged that Mojtaba Khamenei was injured in the same strike that killed his father. He has not made a public appearance since his appointment.
- The Assembly of Experts also appointed a temporary leadership council.
Ceasefire and Aftermath (April 2026)
Ceasefire Terms
- After approximately six weeks of conflict, a US and Israel ceasefire with Iran was negotiated.
- The two-week truce was reportedly brokered by Pakistan.
- Terms of the agreement included a halt to US and Israeli attacks on Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran for commercial shipping.
Declarations of Victory and Public Response
- US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared an "overwhelming victory" in the military campaign, citing the degradation of Iran's military industry.
- Reports from inside Iran indicated a mixed response to the ceasefire. While there was relief that the bombing had ceased, both government supporters and opponents were dissatisfied. Regime opponents expressed a sense of betrayal that the US had not helped topple the government, while supporters felt Iran should have inflicted more damage. A common sentiment was skepticism and a lack of trust that the ceasefire would be durable, with many preparing for the conflict to resume.
Regional and International Context
- The conflict contributed to a rise in global oil prices due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit chokepoint.
- The IAEA confirmed damage to Iran's Natanz nuclear facility but stated it had no indication of a radioactive release.
- The US military reported sinking an Iranian warship and killing a commander involved in a prior assassination plot.
- European nations, including the EU and the UK, imposed sanctions on Iranian officials in connection with the crackdown on domestic protests.