Protests have swept across Iran for over two weeks, escalating from initial economic grievances to a significant challenge against the country's clerical establishment. The Iranian government has responded with a widespread crackdown, including internet blackouts and severe warnings, leading to a range of reported casualties and mass detentions. International actors, notably the United States, have issued warnings and considered various responses, while regional and global entities have expressed concern or called for de-escalation.
Genesis and Expansion of Protests
The demonstrations began in late December 2025, initially sparked by public dissatisfaction over economic conditions, including the collapse of the Iranian rial currency, rising living costs, and high inflation. Initial protests, involving sugar and petrol refinery workers and gold miners, emerged outside Tehran on December 27 and 28. By December 29, the movement spread to Tehran's Grand Bazaar, with merchants, money exchangers, and mobile phone store workers initiating strikes.
The protests quickly evolved beyond economic concerns, encompassing anti-government sentiments and calls for political change, directly challenging the Islamic Republic's leadership. Chants of "Death to the dictator!" and "Death to the Islamic Republic!" were reported, with some demonstrators voicing support for the former Shah. By the second week, protests were reported in over 180 cities across all 31 Iranian provinces, with participation extending to university students and everyday citizens.
Government Response and Crackdown
Iranian authorities implemented a nationwide internet and international telephone service blackout, significantly limiting communication and independent verification of information. State media acknowledged the protests but frequently labeled demonstrators as "terrorist agents" from the U.S. and Israel, responsible for violence and property damage.
Security forces, including anti-riot police, members of the Revolutionary Guard's Basij force, and plainclothes officials, were deployed across cities. Witnesses in Tehran reported a substantial security presence at major intersections, with personnel equipped with batons, shields, shotguns, and tear gas launchers. Reports indicated altercations between riot police and protesters, with tear gas and water cannons used to disperse crowds.
Judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei warned that participation in protests could lead to charges of being an "enemy of God," an offense punishable by death, and emphasized the need for swift trials and severe punishment for detainees. Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, also applauded police and Revolutionary Guard forces and threatened harsh penalties for arrested demonstrators. State television aired footage of pro-government demonstrations, with participants chanting "Death to America!" and "Death to Israel!"
Authorities also reportedly searched apartment buildings for Starlink satellite dishes, which are illegal but used to circumvent the internet shutdown. State media announced free mortuary and morgue services, a move observers interpreted as an indication of previous charges for body releases.
Casualties and Detentions: Conflicting Reports
Reports on casualties and detentions varied significantly due to communication disruptions. Human rights groups and international news agencies provided different estimates:
- The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported figures ranging from at least 42 deaths in early stages to over 2,637 fatalities as of a later report. HRANA's detailed figures included 2,403 protesters, 147 government-affiliated personnel, 12 children, and 9 civilians not involved in protests among the dead. The agency also reported detentions ranging from over 2,270 to more than 18,434 individuals.
- Another group, Norway-based Iran Human Rights (IHR), reported at least 734 protester deaths.
- CBS News, citing internal sources and activist groups, reported estimates of 12,000 to 20,000 deaths. Iran International, a UK-based Persian-language news channel, also cited sources suggesting approximately 12,000 deaths.
- An unnamed Iranian official, quoted by Reuters, stated about 2,000 people had been killed, attributing the violence to foreign-influenced "terrorists."
- Iranian state media acknowledged "casualties" and "some deaths," primarily among security forces, and reported a mass funeral for 300 security force members killed in the demonstrations.
Medical professionals described hospitals as overwhelmed with injured individuals, many suffering from gunshot wounds to the head and eyes, and facing shortages of supplies and blood. Videos, independently verified as being recorded outside the Kahrizak Forensic Medical Centre in Tehran, reportedly depicted lines of body bags and distraught families. Activists suggested the public display of bodies might be a regime tactic to intimidate.
International Reactions and Diplomatic Engagements
United States
President Donald Trump repeatedly warned Iran against killing protesters, threatening "very strong action" and severe, non-ground-based strikes if violence escalated. He announced the cancellation of all meetings with Iranian officials until the cessation of protester killings and imposed 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran. Trump's national security team reportedly considered various options, including military strikes, cyber operations, and additional sanctions.
Trump also claimed Iran had sought negotiations with Washington and suggested a meeting was being arranged, though he cautioned action might be necessary before a meeting. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the administration received private messages from Tehran, acknowledging the President's willingness to use military options.
Later, Trump indicated a de-escalation, stating that "very important sources" had informed him the killing had ceased and executions would not take place. The White House claimed 800 scheduled executions in Iran were halted, though US intelligence reports did not immediately confirm a halt in killings. Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, met secretly with Reza Pahlavi, the exiled former Iranian crown prince.
Other International Actors
- G7 Foreign Ministers: Issued a joint statement expressing grave concern over the repression of protests and indicated readiness to impose additional restrictive measures if the crackdown persisted.
- UN: The UN Security Council scheduled an emergency meeting at the U.S. request. UN human rights chief Volker Türk urged Iranian authorities to halt violence and condemned labeling protesters as "terrorists." Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed shock and urged restraint.
- European Countries: France, Germany, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, the UK, Finland, and Denmark summoned Iran’s ambassadors to object to the killings and urge respect for human rights. Portugal temporarily closed its embassy in Tehran.
- China: Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for dialogue and restraint, opposing the use or threat of force and expressing belief in Iran's ability to maintain stability.
- Regional Governments: Several Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, and Oman, reportedly engaged in diplomatic efforts to dissuade the U.S. from military strikes, citing fears of wider regional conflict. An Arab Gulf diplomat noted advice against initiating war.
- Iran's Warnings: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated Iran was not seeking war but was prepared for it, warning adversaries against miscalculation. Iran's parliamentary speaker warned that the U.S. military and Israel would be "legitimate targets" if the United States initiated strikes against the Islamic Republic. Iran's UN ambassador accused the U.S. and Israel of direct responsibility for casualties and encouraging destabilization.
Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi's Role
Reza Pahlavi, the 65-year-old exiled son of Iran's last Shah, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, became a symbolic figure referenced in protest chants and issued calls for public demonstrations. He encouraged protesters to overwhelm security forces and seize control of towns and cities, stating he was preparing for a return to his homeland. While he has lived in exile for nearly 50 years, and his father's rule was marked by modernization alongside censorship and human rights abuses, some protesters expressed support for the former monarchy. Pahlavi advocates for a peaceful transition to a democratic future for Iranians, potentially a constitutional monarchy, rather than restoring the past. His past support for Israel has drawn criticism from some Iranians.
Specific Incidents and Developments
- Erfan Soltani: The case of 26-year-old Erfan Soltani, detained during the protests, garnered international attention. Relatives reported he was scheduled for execution, with the Hengaw Organization for Human Rights noting the unusually rapid progression of his case. Subsequent reports, including from Iranian state media, indicated that his death sentence was later lifted or postponed, a development acknowledged by President Trump.
- Los Angeles Incident: A U-Haul truck was driven into a crowd during an anti-Iranian regime rally in Westwood, Los Angeles. The driver was taken into custody, and protesters attempted to assault him. Two individuals received evaluations for injuries but declined medical treatment. The FBI initiated an investigation into the driver's motive.
Economic Context and Geopolitical Implications
The protests unfolded against a backdrop of severe economic hardship in Iran, including a significant collapse of the national currency, the rial, which reached historic lows against the U.S. dollar. International sanctions, linked to Iran's nuclear program, were identified as a contributing factor to the economic strain. The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that sanctions were part of an ongoing pressure campaign to accelerate Iran's economic collapse, accusing the regime of misallocating oil revenues.
Geopolitical analysts noted the protests' potential to reshape global dynamics, including energy markets, with Brent crude oil prices surging amidst concerns of supply disruptions. Regional leaders expressed varied perspectives, with Israel generally supportive of regime change, while Gulf states mostly maintained a low public profile, focusing on their own stability. Turkey cautioned against external intervention, and many Palestinians hoped for the current Iranian regime to remain in power, citing its historical opposition to Israel.