Australia’s Demographic Shift: Migration, Birth Rates, and a Growing Nation

Australia’s resident population reached 28 million in January 2025, with net overseas migration driving 73% of growth.

Population Milestones and Growth

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) estimated Australia’s resident population reached 28 million at 6:00 AM on Tuesday, based on the growth rate set on July 1, 2025. As of June 30, 2025, the estimated resident population was 27.6 million.

The Centre for Population projects the national population to reach 31.5 million by the end of 2035, an increase of approximately 4 million people, and 30 million by 2031.

In the year ending September 30, 2025, the annual population growth rate was 1.6%. The Centre for Population forecasts the growth rate will slow to 1.3% in the coming year.

Net overseas migration accounted for 73% (311,000 people) of the population increase in the year to September 2025, with natural increase (births minus deaths) accounting for 27% (112,600 people).

Migration: India Becomes Top Birthplace

As of June 30, 2025, Australia had 8.83 million overseas-born residents, representing 32% of the total population.

For the first time, India-born residents (971,020) narrowly surpassed England-born residents (970,950) to become the largest overseas-born group.

Other leading countries of birth include:

• China: 732,000
• New Zealand: 638,000
• Philippines: 412,530

Migration from India has increased over the past four years, while migration from England has declined from a peak of over 1 million in 2013. The Philippines-born population has nearly doubled since 2015. The largest decreases since 2015 are among those born in Italy and England, with both groups having a median age of 60 or older.

Net overseas migration is projected to total 260,000 in 2025-26 — a significant decline from the peak of 556,000 recorded in the 12 months to September 2023. The decline is attributed to fewer arrivals of temporary migrants (including student and visitor visa holders) and an increase in departures. The federal government’s 2025-26 permanent migration program is set at 185,000 places, primarily in the skilled worker stream.

Birth Rates and Natural Increase

The ABS reported a record low fertility rate of 1.48 babies per woman in 2024, down from 1.5 in 2023. The Centre for Population projects the total fertility rate will decrease to 1.42 in 2025-26 before recovering to 1.62 by 2031-32.

The fertility rate has remained below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman for nearly 50 years.

Two-child families remain the most common, but the proportion of couples choosing not to have children has increased, and larger families continue to decline.

State and Territory Growth

Population growth varies significantly across states and territories for the year ending September 30, 2025:

The Centre for Population projects Western Australia will maintain the highest growth rate (1.8% in 2025-26), while Tasmania is expected to record the slowest growth (0.1%). Capital cities are projected to grow nearly twice as fast as regional areas.

New South Wales is projected to remain the most populous state, reaching 9.6 million people by 2035-36. Sydney and Melbourne are both anticipated to exceed 8 million residents in the 2050s, with Melbourne forecast to become the nation’s most populous city, reaching 9.1 million by 2066.

Demographic Shifts and Ageing

The median age of the overseas-born population is 43 (down from 46 in 2005), while the median age of the Australian-born population is 35 (up from 33 in 2005). The national median age is projected to increase by 1.8 years to 40.2 by 2035-36.

Dementia (including Alzheimer’s disease) has become the leading cause of death in Australia, surpassing ischaemic heart disease.

The five leading causes of death in 2024, accounting for one-third of all registered deaths, were:

1. Dementia (including Alzheimer’s)
2. Ischaemic heart disease
3. Chronic lower respiratory diseases
4. Cerebrovascular diseases
5. Lung cancer

Life expectancy is projected to reach 87.1 years for women and 83.4 years for men by 2035-36.

Policy and Political Context

Immigration is expected to be a topic of political discussion. The federal opposition has indicated plans to introduce a more stringent language test for prospective migrants and has proposed a system based on subscription to “Australian values.” Opposition leader Angus Taylor stated that “immigration numbers are too high.”

Minister for Immigration Tony Burke stated: “Modern Australia and multicultural Australia are the same thing.”

Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that the federal government is implementing programs to support families and facilitate childbearing, and noted economic advancements in areas including housing, migration settings, skills development, and cost of living relief.

The next Census will be conducted on August 11, 2026.