Australia's population is projected to reach 28 million people by 2026 and further increase to 31.5 million by the end of 2035, according to recent government population statements. This projection for 2035 represents an increase of 4 million people from the current 27.5 million, though it is approximately 150,000 lower than previous estimates. The anticipated growth occurs amidst a projected slowdown in the overall population growth rate, a decline in net overseas migration from recent highs, and a continued low fertility rate. The nation is also expected to experience demographic shifts, including an aging population and changes in leading causes of death.
Population Growth Rate
The nation's population growth rate is expected to slow to 1.3 percent in the coming year. This marks a decrease from the 1.5 percent recorded in the previous year and is a reduction from earlier projections.
Net Overseas Migration Trends
Net overseas migration is anticipated to ease following recent record highs. It is projected to decline to 260,000 people in 2025–26 or 2026. This figure is significantly below the peak of 556,000 recorded in the 12 months leading up to September 2023. This deceleration is primarily attributed to fewer arrivals of temporary migrants, particularly those holding student and visitor visas, and the expiry of temporary visas for many individuals who arrived in Australia after the COVID-19 pandemic. While overall departures have increased since 2023–24, temporary visa migrants are reportedly leaving at lower rates than in the past.
Immigration is anticipated to be a prominent political discussion topic this year. The federal opposition has indicated plans to introduce a more stringent language test for prospective migrants as part of its migration policy.
Fertility Rates
Australia's total fertility rate is projected to continue its decrease, reaching 1.42 in 2025–26, or 1.45 children per woman this year. This rate remains below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, a benchmark the country has been below for almost 50 years. This trend is linked to couples delaying childbearing and opting for smaller families. While two-child families remain the most common, smaller families are becoming more prevalent, and the proportion of couples choosing not to have children has steadily increased, surpassing rates in some other countries. The birth rate is forecast to recover to 1.62 by 2031-32 and maintain that level, though it will remain below the replacement level.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that the federal government is implementing programs to support families and facilitate childbearing. He also noted economic advancements in areas such as housing, migration settings, skills development, and cost of living relief.
Broader Demographic Shifts
Australia's median age is projected to increase by 1.8 years, reaching 40.2 years by 2035–36. The number of Australians aged 85 and over is forecast to triple by 2065–66, reaching 1.9 million. Life expectancy in Australia is expected to reach 87.1 years for women and 83.4 years for men by 2035–36. Regional populations are generally older than those in capital cities across all states and territories, excluding the Northern Territory.
Dementia, including Alzheimer's disease, has become the leading cause of death in Australia, surpassing ischaemic heart disease. The five leading causes of death in 2024, accounting for one-third of all registered deaths, were dementia (including Alzheimer's disease), ischaemic heart disease, chronic lower respiratory diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and lung cancer.
Regional Growth Variations
Population growth and aging patterns are expected to vary across Australia:
- Western Australia is projected to experience the highest population growth rate at 1.8 percent in 2025–26, driven by both net overseas migration and interstate migration.
- Tasmania is expected to record the slowest growth at 0.1 percent, with South Australia also projected among the slowest-growing states between 2026 and 2036.
- New South Wales is projected to maintain its position as Australia's most populous state, reaching 9.6 million people by 2035–36, accounting for approximately 30 percent of the national population.
- Capital cities are projected to grow nearly twice as fast as regional areas.
- Both Sydney and Melbourne are anticipated to exceed 8 million residents in the 2050s. Melbourne is forecast to become the nation's most populous city, reaching 9.1 million by 2066.