Australia's Population Landscape: Key Trends and Projections

As of June 30, 2025, Australia's estimated resident population stood at 27.6 million, with 8.83 million overseas-born residents accounting for 32% of the total.

For the first time, India-born residents (971,020) narrowly surpassed England-born residents (970,950) to become the largest overseas-born group.

The national population is projected to reach 31.5 million by the end of 2035, according to the Australian federal government's 2025 Population Statement from the Centre for Population.

Migration Trends

India has become the top country of origin for Australia's migrant population after a decade of sustained increase. The number of India-born residents has risen over the past four years, while migration from England has been declining since its peak of over 1 million in 2013.

Other major overseas-born groups include:

• China: 732,000
• New Zealand: 638,000
• Philippines: 412,530

The Philippines-born population has nearly doubled since 2015. The largest decreases in overseas-born populations since 2015 have been from Italy and England, both with a median age of 60 years or older.

Net overseas migration is forecast to decline to 260,000 for the 2025-26 financial year, down from a post-COVID peak of 556,000 recorded in the 12 months to September 2023.

This reduction is primarily attributed to fewer arrivals of temporary visa holders, including students and visitors, and an increase in overall departures—though temporary visa migrants are leaving at lower rates than in the past. The government's 2025-26 permanent migration program has set 185,000 places, mainly in the skilled worker stream.

Birth Rates and Family Size

Australia's total fertility rate is projected to decrease to 1.42 children per woman in 2025-26, remaining well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. The rate is forecast to recover to 1.62 by 2031-32.

While two-child families remain the most common, the proportion of couples choosing not to have children has increased, and larger families continue to decline. The declining birth rate is linked to couples delaying childbearing and opting for smaller families.

Population Projections and Growth

The national population is projected to reach 31.5 million by 2035-36, an increase of approximately 4 million from the current 27.5 million. This estimate is about 150,000 lower than previous projections. The growth rate is expected to slow to 1.3% in 2025-26, down from 1.5% recorded the previous year.

Population growth and ageing patterns vary significantly across states and territories:

• Western Australia is projected to have the highest population growth rate at 1.8% in 2025-26, driven by net overseas and interstate migration.
• Tasmania is expected to record the lowest growth rate at 0.1%.
• New South Wales is projected to remain the most populous state, reaching 9.6 million people by 2035-36, representing approximately 30% of the national population.
• Sydney and Melbourne are both expected to exceed 8 million residents in the 2050s. Melbourne is forecast to become the nation's most populous city, reaching 9.1 million by 2066.

Ageing and Demographics

The median age of Australians is projected to increase by 1.8 years, reaching 40.2 years by 2035-36. The median age of the overseas-born population is 43 (down from 46 in 2005), while the median age of the Australian-born population is 35 (up from 33 in 2005).

The number of Australians aged 85 and over is forecast to triple by 2065-66, reaching 1.9 million.

Regional populations are generally older than those in capital cities across all states and territories, excluding the Northern Territory.

The five leading causes of death in 2024, accounting for one-third of all registered deaths, were:

1. Dementia (including Alzheimer's disease)
2. Ischaemic heart disease
3. Chronic lower respiratory diseases
4. Cerebrovascular diseases
5. Lung cancer

Dementia has become the leading cause of death, surpassing ischaemic heart disease.

Political Context and Policy Statements

Immigration has become a prominent political discussion topic. Minister for Immigration Tony Burke stated that "Modern Australia and multicultural Australia are the same thing."

Opposition leader Angus Taylor stated that "Immigration numbers are too high" and proposed a system based on subscription to "Australian values." The federal opposition has also indicated plans to introduce a more stringent language test for prospective migrants.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that the federal government is implementing programs to support families and facilitate childbearing, and noted economic advancements in housing, migration settings, skills development, and cost of living relief.