Detroit, Michigan – Cox Automotive, an automotive data and insights firm, projects an increase in used vehicle prices for the current year.
The company's forecast indicates that wholesale prices, as tracked by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, will conclude the year 2% higher than levels recorded in December 2025. This index specifically monitors prices of used vehicles sold at U.S. wholesale auctions.
This projected 2% increase follows a period of minimal growth, with 0.4% increases observed in both 2024 and 2025. These figures contrast with significant declines of 7% in 2023 and nearly 15% in 2022. The declines occurred after substantial price inflation during the Covid-19 pandemic, which saw used vehicle prices rise by 46.6% in 2021 and 14.2% in 2020.
Despite the anticipated stability in pricing, current used vehicle prices remain above pre-pandemic levels. Historically, retail prices for consumers tend to align with wholesale price changes, though retail prices have not decreased at the same rate as wholesale prices in recent years.
Cox data, which extends back to 1998, indicates that the average year-end index movement, excluding the 2020-2022 period, is an increase of approximately 2%. Monthly fluctuations in pricing are expected due to factors such as selling seasonality. The typical month-to-month index movement is reported as 0.2%.
Jeremy Robb, interim chief economist at Cox Automotive, noted emerging positive indicators for the market. These include a decline in new and used auto loan rates to their lowest level in a year, alongside an expected increase in consumer tax refunds. These factors are projected to contribute to stronger demand in the auto market as the year progresses.
Regarding sales projections for 2026, Cox Automotive anticipates a 0.9% year-over-year decrease in total used vehicle sales, totaling 38.3 million units. This forecast includes a 0.7% decrease in used vehicle retail sales, expected to reach 20.3 million units.