Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Sees February Rise, Cox Automotive Forecasts 2026 Increase

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which tracks wholesale prices of used vehicles in the U.S., recorded a 4% year-over-year increase in February, reaching its highest level since September 2023. This rise aligns with a broader projection from Cox Automotive, which anticipates a 2% increase in wholesale used vehicle prices by the end of 2026, building on a period of more stable pricing after previous declines.

Current Market Performance

In February, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index stood at 212.3, marking a 0.8% increase from January and a significant 4% increase compared to February of the previous year. This performance represents the highest index level observed since September 2023.

Jeremy Robb, chief economist at Cox Automotive, noted increased demand at Manheim auctions since the beginning of the year. This demand was indicated by higher sales conversion rates, reflecting dealer interest in purchasing vehicles, with prices seeing a particular increase through the latter half of February.

Several factors contributed to this observed demand:

• Anticipated higher tax returns for American consumers.
• A decline in new and used auto loan rates, reaching their lowest point in a year.

However, broader economic and geopolitical concerns were also acknowledged as potential short-term risks to consumer purchasing.

2026 Price Forecast

Cox Automotive projects that wholesale used vehicle prices, as measured by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, will conclude 2026 at a level 2% higher than recorded in December 2025. This forecast follows minimal growth in prior years, with increases of 0.4% observed in both 2024 and 2025.

Historically, excluding the exceptional period between 2020 and 2022, the average year-end movement of the Manheim index has been an increase of approximately 2% since 1998. Typical month-to-month index fluctuations average 0.2%.

Historical Context

The projected 2% increase in 2026 follows significant price movements in previous years:

• Declines:
  • 7% in 2023
  • Nearly 15% in 2022
• Increases (during the Covid-19 pandemic):
  • 46.6% in 2021
  • 14.2% in 2020

Despite these recent declines, current used vehicle prices remain above pre-pandemic levels. While retail prices for consumers generally align with wholesale price changes, it's important to note that retail prices have not decreased at the same rate as wholesale prices in recent years.

Sales Projections for 2026

Cox Automotive also provided projections for used vehicle sales for the year 2026:

• Total used vehicle sales are anticipated to reach 38.3 million units, representing a 0.9% year-over-year decrease.
• Used vehicle retail sales are expected to be 20.3 million units, a projected 0.7% decrease.