Supreme Court Ruling on Voting Rights Act Could Impact Congressional Representation
The United States could experience a decline in Black representation in Congress, depending on the Supreme Court's decision in a redistricting case concerning the Voting Rights Act. This case addresses the law's Section 2 provisions, which have historically protected the collective voting power of racial minorities during the redrawing of political maps. These provisions have been associated with an increase in the number of House of Representatives seats held by Black lawmakers.
Background on Section 2 and Redistricting
Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act has led political mapmakers, particularly in Southern states, to create districts where racial-minority voters constitute a population size sufficient to elect their preferred candidates. This approach addresses situations where voting patterns are often polarized between a white majority, which frequently supports Republican candidates, and a Black minority, which often supports Democratic candidates.
The Louisiana Case and Court's Deliberations
During an October hearing last year regarding Louisiana's congressional map, the Supreme Court's conservative majority engaged in discussions that suggest a potential ruling to modify Section 2 protections in redistricting. This aligns with previous decisions that have altered aspects of the Voting Rights Act.
An analysis by NPR indicates that such a ruling could affect at least 15 House districts currently represented by Black members of Congress. These districts typically have a significant racial-minority population, are located in states where Republican lawmakers control redistricting, and are presently under Section 2 protection. The inclusion of recently redrawn districts in Missouri and Texas, not covered by NPR's analysis, could further increase this number.
The full extent of the impact on Democratic-represented districts remains uncertain, as Republican-led state legislatures might consider partisan advantages when deciding whether to preserve some of these districts. The timing of any such legislative actions also depends on the Supreme Court's impending ruling.
A reduction in these districts could lead to a substantial decline in Black representatives. The largest previous recorded decline occurred with the 45th Congress in 1877, which had four fewer House districts represented by Black lawmakers than the preceding session.
Historical Context of Black Representation
Black representation on Capitol Hill began in 1870 during the post-Civil War Reconstruction era, following the enfranchisement of Black men. However, the implementation of poll taxes, literacy tests, and threats of violence subsequently limited Black voting rights until the passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
For a century after the Civil War, the number of Black-represented House districts consistently remained in the single digits or at zero. This trend changed in 1969, when the number began a gradual increase, reaching 63 districts today, which constitutes approximately 14% of the current House. The Supreme Court's decision in the Louisiana case is anticipated to influence this ongoing trend.
Arguments and Perspectives
The Louisiana case centers on one of the state's two majority-Black congressional districts. This district was drawn after a Section 2 lawsuit initiated by Press Robinson, a Black voter and civil rights activist. Robinson has expressed concerns that without Section 2's protections, Black representation could diminish. He became the first Black elected member of the East Baton Rouge Parish School Board in 1980 after successfully challenging the board's election system for diluting the power of Black voters.
Democratic Rep. Terri Sewell of Alabama has stated that Section 2 has been instrumental for members of the Congressional Black Caucus. She has suggested that modifying these provisions could reverse legal precedents and reinstate conditions where discrimination against minority voters was less constrained.
Conversely, opponents of these Section 2 provisions contend that they violate the Constitution. Louisiana's Republican state officials maintain that race should not be a factor “in any form” during the redrawing of voting maps. A group of self-described “non-African American” voters from Louisiana argues that race-based redistricting under Section 2 should cease, citing the Court's previous rulings against race-based affirmative action in higher education. The Justice Department under the Trump administration also criticized Section 2 provisions in redistricting, characterizing them as “a form of electoral race-based affirmative action to undo a State's constitutional pursuit of political ends.”
Broader Implications for Minority Representation
Katherine Tate, a professor of political science at Brown University, suggests that additional restrictions on considering race in redistricting could provide mapmakers more discretion, potentially altering the collective influence of minority voters and resulting in fewer elected representatives of color. Tate has authored books on Black representation in Congress and highlights the importance of diversity for equitable representation.
A modification of Section 2's current redistricting provisions could also affect representation for other racial and ethnic minorities and at sub-national government levels. Estimates by voting rights advocacy groups Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter Fund suggest potential reductions of up to 11% in the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and approximately 200 Democratic-held state legislative seats, predominantly in majority-Black districts in the South.
Lauren Groh-Wargo, CEO of Fair Fight Action, stated that these changes might unfold over several years. She indicated that while some states might experience rapid alterations to Black representation at congressional and state legislative levels, others might delay gerrymandering efforts until the current round of mid-decade congressional redistricting concludes.
Tate has compared the potential outcome of the Louisiana redistricting case to historical Supreme Court decisions from the 1870s that modified civil rights gains of the Reconstruction era.
Robinson of Baton Rouge has stated that efforts to secure voting rights and other rights for people of color often involve ongoing challenges.