The city of Pokrovsk in Ukraine's Donetsk region holds strategic importance for both Ukrainian and Russian forces. Its potential capture, following a battle lasting over a year, could represent a significant development for Russia in its stated objective to control the Donbas region. Ukraine maintains active resistance in the area amid conflicting reports regarding the extent of Russian advances and claims of encirclement. For Ukraine, Pokrovsk serves as a critical road and rail junction.
Current Situation in Pokrovsk
Conflicting reports exist regarding the status of the battle for Pokrovsk. Russia has reportedly amassed tens of thousands of troops in the area, with some sources indicating hundreds of Russian soldiers have infiltrated the city, gradually occupying buildings and overwhelming Ukrainian positions.
On Wednesday, Kyiv denied claims that its forces in and around Pokrovsk had been encircled. Ukrainian officials stated their troops were involved in "active resistance" and blocking Russian advances. A Ukrainian regiment, "Skelya," reported clearing the city council building and raising the national flag, releasing video evidence.
However, open-source intelligence maps suggest Russian troops may occupy substantial portions of Pokrovsk. While Ukraine's official position is that its forces are holding their ground, military personnel cited by Ukraine's Hromadske website reported Ukrainian troops being outnumbered, with over 1,000 soldiers potentially at risk of encirclement. Russia's Ministry of Defense claimed continued northward advances and reported thwarting Ukrainian attempts to break out of encirclement, stating Ukrainian units were trapped in "cauldrons," a claim disputed by some commentators.
Strategic Importance for Russia
Pokrovsk has been a focus for Russia's military since the capture of Avdiivka in February 2024. The capture of Avdiivka removed a significant Ukrainian stronghold in the Donetsk region. Since then, Russian forces have advanced approximately 40km (25 miles) to the northwest, a process characterized as slow.
The capture of Pokrovsk would bring Russia closer to its stated goal of occupying the entire Donbas, comprising the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Analysts suggest that if Pokrovsk falls, the defense of its satellite city, Myrnohrad, would become challenging. This could allow Russian forces to focus on the battle for Kostyantynivka to the north-east, as well as the cities of Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk, sometimes referred to as the "fortress belt."
However, Michael Kofman, an analyst from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated that Ukraine possesses defensive lines to which it could withdraw and reset its defense. He commented that "Russian forces lack momentum and the way they have been fighting won't generate it," adding that "Infiltration yields a creeping offensive but can't yield operationally significant breakthroughs."
Strategic Importance for Ukraine
Pokrovsk, once home to approximately 60,000 people, has played a significant strategic role for Ukraine's military. The city is located near Ukraine's only mine producing coking coal, a resource vital for the steel industry, though coal production ceased at the beginning of the year due to evacuation efforts.
Critically, Pokrovsk serves as a key road and rail junction in eastern Ukraine. Its loss could facilitate Russian forces' advance towards the central Dnipropetrovsk region. Russian forces are reportedly closing in on the main road leading to Pavlohrad and Dnipro, and have advanced near the Donetsk border with Dnipropetrovsk to the south-west. Another major road from Pokrovsk leads to Zaporizhzhia, the capital of another region claimed by Russia.
Potential Impact on the Conflict
Russia's President Vladimir Putin has reportedly demanded the handover of all of Donetsk as a condition for ending the conflict. However, the fall of Pokrovsk would not automatically lead to the capture of the entire Donetsk region.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has consistently stated that Russia's military would need to continue fighting for several more years to fully occupy the Donbas. The Institute for the Study of War also assesses that Russia lacks the means for "rapidly enveloping or penetrating the fortress belt," predicting such an objective would likely take several years.