Consumer Confidence Edges Up in June as Inflation Fears Ease, but Labor Market Worries Persist
The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.2 in June, falling short of the consensus forecast of 94.2 but improving from the revised May reading of 90.6.
Key components of the index showed a stark divide:
- The Present Situation Index fell 3.0 points to 116.4.
- The Expectations Index rose 3.0 points to 74.4.
Gold prices set fresh session highs following the data release, with spot gold trading at $4,047.71 per ounce, up 0.71%.
"Consumer confidence edged up in June as falling oil prices provided some relief to inflation fears." — Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board
Present Situation: Mixed Signals
Net views of current business conditions improved slightly by 1 percentage point to +3.5%. However, perceptions of the labor market softened significantly.
The percentage of consumers saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 22.5% — the highest level since January 2021 (22.8%). The labor market differential fell 2.6 percentage points to +2.4%.
Expectations: A Two-Sided Improvement
Two of the three expectations components improved:
- Net expectations for business conditions moved higher.
- Expected household income six months from now also rose.
- Net expectations for labor market conditions remained unchanged.
Demographic Breakdown
Confidence among consumers under 35 remained the highest of any age group, though all age groups trended downward on a six-month moving average.
- By income: Confidence was mixed or little changed.
- By generation: The Silent Generation saw the largest decline.
- By political affiliation: Confidence among Independents and Democrats rose, while Republicans were somewhat less positive month-over-month.
Consumers' write-in responses continued to skew pessimistic, with elevated references to prices, inflation, oil and gas, food, tariffs, trade, politics, labor market, health, insurance, and war.