The German Town Fighting to Reverse Its Shrinking Future
Oschersleben, Germany — The town of Oschersleben in eastern Germany is a stark portrait of demographic decline. Empty shops line the streets, maternity wards have closed, and the population is aging. Jan-Niklas, a local who returned after 13 years away, is now working tirelessly to attract younger residents to a place that desperately needs them.
The Numbers Tell a Grim Story
- Services are vanishing: Fewer people means fewer shops, schools, and hospitals.
- Germany's birth rate in 2023 hit its lowest point since 1946 — 1.84 for non-German women and just 1.23 for German women, both far below the 2.1 replacement rate needed to sustain the population.
- Migrants and refugees overwhelmingly settle in western German cities, bypassing the rural east.
- A shrinking workforce must now support a growing number of retirees.
A Long-Term Trend
The roots of this crisis run deep. The introduction of the contraceptive pill and the rise of female workforce participation in the late 1960s marked the beginning of the decline.
According to Professor Martin Bujard of the Federal Institute for Population Research, recent global crises have only made things worse. "COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine have significantly exacerbated the trend," he notes.
A Global Warning
This isn't just a German problem. The United Nations has warned of an "unprecedented decline" in global fertility rates, driven by affordability crises and housing shortages.
Eastern Germany, in particular, has already been rapidly hollowed out over recent decades — a process that Oschersleben is now fighting to reverse, one new resident at a time.