Meta’s New Prediction Market, “Arena,” Uses AI to Let Users Bet on Events with Play Money
Meta is developing a prediction market application, internally codenamed "Antwerp" and "FBForecast," that will allow users to place bets on real-world events using virtual currency. The app, referred to internally as Arena, represents a rebuild of Meta's earlier Forecast app, which was discontinued in 2022 due to high manual curation costs.
The app utilizes Meta's Llama large language model to automatically generate questions based on trending topics and provide personalized market recommendations.
App Functionality
Arena will utilize Meta's Llama large language model to automatically generate questions based on trending topics and provide personalized market recommendations. The artificial intelligence system will also resolve market outcomes in near real-time. Users will wager play money rather than real currency. An exact release date has not been specified.
Acquisition History
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg considered acquiring Kalshi, an existing prediction market company, in 2024 before directing the development of Arena. Zuckerberg met with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour to discuss a potential acquisition, but negotiations did not advance. Reasons for the failed negotiations vary: some sources indicate Mansour was not interested in selling; other sources suggest Meta had concerns about legal and ethical issues surrounding prediction markets.
Meta and Kalshi formed a partnership in March 2025, allowing integration of Kalshi markets on Meta's Threads app.
Industry Context
Prediction markets have seen significant growth. Monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from approximately $28 billion in June 2024 to nearly $220 billion in June 2025, driven largely by sports betting. Kalshi was valued at $22 billion in a May 2025 funding round. Polymarket is valued at $10.7 billion.
The industry faces legal challenges from state gaming officials who argue prediction markets constitute gambling.
The Trump administration has expressed support for the industry. The Department of Justice has opened two criminal cases for alleged insider trading on Polymarket.
External Observations
Tim Wu, a Columbia University law professor and former White House tech policy advisor, stated that Meta's interest in prediction markets follows a pattern of acquiring or cloning competitors. Wu described Meta's business strategy as "buy or bury" and noted that Meta's ability to repeatedly fail at new ventures without consequence is supported by its advertising revenue. Wu also stated that Meta has become a $1 trillion company through acquisitions rather than internal development, and that its practices distort competition.