Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was apprehended in a nighttime operation by US forces and transported on a US warship, hours after meeting with Chinese diplomats. This event has prompted a strong condemnation from China and initiated a comprehensive reassessment in Beijing regarding its position in South America and its broader relationship with the United States. The incident highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics in the Western Hemisphere, China's extensive economic ties in the region, and potential implications for its strategy concerning Taiwan.
Apprehension of Venezuelan President
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was apprehended by US forces during a nighttime operation. Following his apprehension, images depicted him aboard a US warship. This development occurred hours after President Maduro had met with senior Chinese diplomats, where he commended Chinese President Xi Jinping and highlighted the bilateral relationship between their nations. Chinese state media had broadcast footage of these meetings, noting approximately 600 existing agreements between China and Venezuela, a country where China has made significant investments.
International Reactions and Geopolitical Stances
China, along with several other nations, issued a condemnation of the US action, stating it violated international law and that the sovereignty and security of all nations should be protected. Beijing described the US as acting like a "world judge."
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Sunday, "This is the western hemisphere. This is where we live – and we're not going to allow the western hemisphere to be a base of operations for adversaries, competitors and rivals of the United States." This statement outlined a US position regarding the influence of other nations in the region.
In response to reports that Washington might instruct an acting Venezuelan president to discontinue economic ties with China and Russia, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning described such an act as "typical bullying," a "serious violation of international law," and an infringement upon Venezuela's sovereignty, predicting "grave damage to the rights of the Venezuelan people."
Implications for China's Taiwan Strategy
The intervention in Venezuela has led to discussions regarding potential implications for Taiwan, which Beijing considers a breakaway province. Chinese President Xi Jinping has publicly committed to the "reunification" of Taiwan with the mainland, without ruling out the use of force. Some Chinese social media users have drawn parallels between the US action in Caracas and Beijing's potential approach to Taiwan.
However, analysts like David Sacks from the Council on Foreign Relations assert that China views Taiwan as an internal matter, distinct from concerns of the international order. Sacks also noted that China's decision-making regarding Taiwan would be contingent on its assessment of achieving success at an acceptable cost, rather than being influenced by US actions in other regions. He concluded that the US actions in Venezuela do not alter China's current strategy of employing coercion to bring Taiwan to negotiations, but rather pose a new challenge to China's strategy for cultivating relations with the Global South.
Economic Ties Between China and Venezuela
The economic relationship between China and Venezuela has historically involved China providing over $100 billion in financing for various infrastructure projects, including railways and power plants, between approximately 2000 and 2023. In exchange, Venezuela supplied crude oil to China. In the past year, approximately 80% of Venezuelan oil exports were directed to China, constituting about 4% of China's total oil imports.
Major Chinese firms, such as CNPC and Sinopec, are significant players in Venezuela. Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of The China-Global South Project, identified a potential risk of these assets being nationalized by Venezuela or marginalized amid ongoing events. Venezuela has approximately $10 billion in outstanding loans owed to Chinese creditors, though the immediate risk to these investments remains unclear. Cui Shoujun from Renmin University's School of International Relations advised Chinese enterprises to comprehensively assess risks and potential US intervention before investing in related projects.
Broader Regional and Strategic Considerations for China
The incident has prompted Beijing to evaluate its position in South America and its broader relationship with the United States, particularly within the evolving dynamics of its interactions with the current US administration. China aims to maintain its recently signed trade truce with the US while also preserving its presence in Latin America.
Olander suggests a concern that other South American nations might reconsider significant Chinese investments due to potential US scrutiny. Latin America is a critical source of food, energy, and natural resources for China, with bilateral trade exceeding $500 billion. Furthermore, the US has reportedly urged the Panamanian government to cancel Chinese port holdings and investments related to the Panama Canal, a development that has prompted concern in Beijing. These circumstances suggest China may need to adapt its engagement strategies in the region.