Global Security Shifts: Europe's Conflict Echoes in the Indo-Pacific
At the 32nd Tactical airbase in Łask, Poland, an E-7 Wedgetail surveillance plane deployed by Australia concluded its mission supporting NATO's response to the conflict in Ukraine. F-16 fighter planes were also observed conducting operations from the base.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has prompted discussions among European Union and NATO officials regarding continental security. Senior officials interviewed during a recent visit indicated that the conflict in Europe is perceived to increase the likelihood of future conflicts in the Indo-Pacific, suggesting a need for increased preparedness in countries such as Australia.
Polish-Australian Cooperation and Regional Implications
Lt Col Grzegorz Langowski, commander of the Łask airbase, oversaw cooperation with Australian personnel operating the E-7 Wedgetail. This aircraft reportedly conducted approximately 45 missions, including surveillance over supply routes into Ukraine, and was operational during incidents involving Russian aircraft in Estonian airspace. Langowski stated that Australia's deployment marked the first instance of a non-NATO country contributing to this effort at the base, emphasizing the importance of cooperation and tactical training. He noted the interconnectedness of global strategy, linking the conflict in Ukraine to broader implications for regions such as China and Australia. Langowski expressed openness to further deployments of Australian assets.
Discussions concerning peace negotiations, reportedly involving former US President Donald Trump, are ongoing, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy having articulated his resistance to terms he considers unfavorable regarding territorial integrity and security.
Evolving Drone Warfare and EU Defense
The European Union is developing plans for a 'drone wall' defense system to counter increasing incursions, following Russia's sustained targeting of Ukrainian energy and port infrastructure with drones and missiles. Andrius Kubilius, former Lithuanian Prime Minister and EU defense chief, stated that member states have been slow to acknowledge the threat posed by drone warfare. Kubilius, who will contribute to an EU-Albanese government defense and security partnership, has advocated for countries, including Australia, to enhance their drone capabilities. He described drone operations as a potential new form of warfare, capable of disrupting strategic infrastructure without traditional ground forces. Drones are also being utilized in operations categorized by Europe as hybrid threats, extending to civilian infrastructure and borders in countries such as Germany, Denmark, and Norway. Kubilius emphasized the necessity of developing a comprehensive drone ecosystem, noting the rapid obsolescence of drone technology due to countermeasures.
Australia's Enhanced Capabilities and Strategic Alignment
Australia is increasing its drone capabilities, with projected government expenditure of at least $10 billion on drone systems over the next decade. This includes a recently announced $1 billion agreement for six Ghost Bat drones, which possess a range exceeding 3,700 kilometers.
In September, Lt Gen Maciej Klisz, operational commander of the Polish Armed Forces, directed the response when NATO fighter jets intercepted Russian drones over Poland. This marked the first mobilization of Polish troops against a perceived threat to their territory since World War II. Klisz met with Australia's Vice-Admiral Justin Jones the same week. Klisz stated that both officials observed similarities in operational patterns, identifying Russia as one source of international challenges, and noted the broader context includes China. He suggested that tactics such as the weaponization of maritime routes and targeting of strategic assets, observed in Russia's engagement with NATO's collective defense, could be employed by other nations, including in the Indo-Pacific. Australian defense officials recently tracked a Chinese naval flotilla near Australia, following a previous circumnavigation of the country by a Chinese naval task group. The Australian federal government anticipates continued Chinese focus on the region.
Poland is considering participation in Australia's Talisman Sabre military exercise, which focuses on combat readiness and interoperability with international forces, including the United States. Both Poland and Australia are part of the F-35 stealth fighter jet network, with some F-35s expected at Łask early this year. Klisz acknowledged Australia's participation in the coalition supporting Ukraine, noting the strengthening cooperation between Poland and Australia despite geographical distance.
Interconnected Security and Diplomatic Responses
European leaders have expressed concerns regarding the involvement of China, North Korea, and Iran in the conflict. Robert Kupiecki, Poland's undersecretary of state and security adviser to the prime minister, highlighted the interconnectedness of international security, advocating for EU members to strengthen ties with Australia. He stated that potential conflicts involving American allies in the Indo-Pacific could directly affect Europe, especially given the strategic cooperation between China and Russia. Kupiecki also referred to international analyses projecting numerous scenarios of potential parallel conflicts in Europe and the Pacific Ocean.
Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong stated that Russia and its partners should recognize international resolve against the invasion of Ukraine. She emphasized that upholding the United Nations charter is a critical component of Australian foreign policy. Wong articulated Australia's objective for the region: 'a region where sovereignty is respected, where no one country dominates and no country is dominated,' describing this strategic balance as optimal for Australia's national interests.
Individual EU member states are pursuing Indo-Pacific focused strategies. Marc Abensour, a French diplomat, directs France’s Indo-Pacific engagement, spanning from eastern Africa to French Polynesia. He affirmed France's commitment to a rules-based order, which he believes is shared by many Indo-Pacific partners. Abensour stated that France and the EU aim to prevent the division of the world into spheres of influence and counter the exertion of undue influence by major powers. He identified tension management and conflict avoidance as key objectives, specifically mentioning Taiwan and the Korean peninsula. France’s position against 'spheres of influence' contrasts with the approach taken by the Trump administration, which cited Western Hemisphere protection in actions such as the operation to apprehend Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Abensour concluded that the conflict in Ukraine has led to increased 'strategic disinhibition' with global implications beyond Europe.