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Invest 90L Develops into Potential Tropical Cyclone One, Bringing Heavy Rain to Gulf Coast

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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Develops in Gulf, Expected to Become Tropical Storm Arthur

A weather system designated Invest 90L has developed into Potential Tropical Cyclone One, currently tracking across the Gulf of Mexico and bringing heavy rainfall to parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. The system is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Arthur, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Current Status

As of the latest reports, the system is located near Corpus Christi, Texas, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The National Hurricane Center has assessed a medium chance of development into a tropical cyclone.

The system's organization is expected to be hindered by wind shear.

Watches and Warnings

  • Tropical storm watches are in effect from south of Galveston, Texas, to near Franklin, Louisiana.
  • Tropical storm warnings have been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi coast.
  • Flash flood warnings are currently active for parts of the North Shore, including Pearl River County, Hancock County, Tangipahoa Parish, and Washington Parish.

Rainfall and Flooding

Heavy rain is expected on and off throughout the week, with the heaviest amounts possibly on Thursday. Rainfall forecasts indicate 3 to 6 inches across the region, with locally higher amounts possible.

  • A flood advisory was issued for portions of St. Tammany Parish, where nearly three inches of rain fell in three hours.
  • Rainfall amounts of nearly seven inches have been reported in Picayune, Louisiana, and Franklinton, Louisiana, within the past 12 hours.
  • Some models predict up to 10 inches in parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

WDSU meteorologist Duncan reported: "We could see rain rates over about five inches an hour sitting over you for about 30 minutes to an hour."

Forecast

The system is expected to move over the Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, then move onshore. The forecasted landfall location is near Lake Charles and Sulphur, Louisiana.

  • The flash flood threat is considered possible for the region on the day of the report, shifting to likely for parts of the North Shore on Thursday.
  • Coastal flood advisories are in effect, with tides 1-3 feet above normal through early Thursday.
  • The storm is not expected to strengthen rapidly due to wind shear, but isolated tornadoes are possible.

The exact path and intensity of the system remain uncertain as it develops.